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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - AFC South
8/27/03

Indianapolis

QB - Peyton Manning is as solid as aged maple. Yes, he has had some issues with interceptions over the course of the year. But if he is guilty of anything, it is of trying to hard. For Pete's sake, do you remember that press conference he had after he broke his jaw last year? I could barely understand anything he said, but it all kind of ran together after the part about how much he loves The Gap Band. Manning is a gamer and he plays in an explosive offense and he consistently puts up great stats. He seems an annual lock to throw for 27 scores and 4,000 yards.

Prediction: 27 scores and 4,000 yards. I get an F minus for originality on that one.

RB - Which Edgerrin James do we see this year? The one who slightly resembled the former rushing champ last year, or the guy who was a yardage and scoring machine his first two years. Smart money has him closer to his old form, but the real question is how close? The team wants everyone to believe he is ready, so the buzz and quotes surrounding camp sound awfully familiar, "He's playing basketball," "He looks great," and "Seabiscuit is an early favorite for the Oscar." He actually stayed to do his off-season conditioning with the team instead of returning to Miami. His offensive line is good and he wants to show everyone he is back so he can start to carp about the incentive laden contract he signed as rookie.

Prediction: 2,200 total yards and 18 scores might not be in future, but 1800 and 15 are not farfetched.

WR/TE - Just think how good Marvin Harrison could be if he had some receiving help. He racked up 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns last year with his best receiving help coming from his tight ends. Harrison and Manning spend long hours working on timing and anticipation and it shows. Expect another big year. Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley look to help out Harrison, but they need to realize more is needed than just bringing Harrison a water bottle during practice. The best options are at the tight end position. Marcus Pollard finished with six touchdowns and is Manning's safety valve. First round pick Dallas Clark might also be an option as he takes Ken Dilger's spot. Both TE's are better pass catchers than blockers, so they will see plenty of action.

Prediction: Harrison keeps on rolling along as the best WR in the game. Wayne and Stokley don't offer much, but the tight ends are a good option.

K/D - Mike Vanderjagt made some ill-advised mistakes last year. He made some comments last year about Coach Tony Dungy, took a shot a Manning and also continued to look like a dope by doing some head-snap celebration after each kick. He would like to
put last year behind him and we would all like to forget that head-snap thing. He is in the right system, plays indoors for 8 games and has the talent, but he was lousy last year. He was 23 of 31 last year for no reason. But he should bounce back this year. Defensive end Dwight Freeney looks like the real deal after 12 sacks last year. The team unit lacks playmakers outside of him.

Predictions: Vanderjagt atones for his sins with a Pro Bowl campaign and Freeney joins him, not in the atoning, but in Honolulu.

Jacksonville

QB - The drafting of Byron Leftwich means Mark Brunell is being eased out. The only way Brunell's lame duck status could be any lamer was if he kept asking everyone to turn their radios down. Brunell is a pro, so he will give it all that he has, but without many weapons and limited mobility, he looks to be near the end. He threw 17 touchdowns last year and had 2,700 passing yards last year. It has turned into a conservative offense in the past few years, but talk has them opening it up a little more. The departure and suspension of his receiving corps leave Brunell wondering if he will even finish the year. Leftwich isn't quite ready to contribute right now and the team would like to sit him for a year, but if they fall out of contention, which is a possibility, might see some time.

Prediction: Not the year to draft a Jag QB, unless that jag Jeff George returns. He has that quick release, you know.

RB - Fred Taylor finally answered his critics last year by playing a full season without getting injured. He ran for 1,300 yards, picked up another 400 in the air and had eight scores. In his favor is the fact he should be getting most of the goal line carries with the departure of Stacy Mack. He now has to answer the critics saying he can't do it two years in a row. He has already suffered a bone bruise that has kept him out of camp. If he does stay healthy, you can expect similar numbers, if not better. But you have to ask yourself, do you feel lucky?

Prediction: I do, punk, and see Taylor coming through with another good year.

WR/TE - Jimmy Smith's four game suspension has left a glaring hole that only detonation experts could enjoy. J.J. Stokes was signed due to the club's need for a slow-footed, stone-handed receiver. What is even more depressing is that the talent actually drops off after Stokes. Donald Hayes and Kevin Lockett are options, but so is shaving with a broken bottle, so it doesn't mean you should choose that. Kyle Brady might have a decent year similar to the four TD performance campaign of last year.

Prediction: Beware of Jags receivers. Unless that jag Andre Rison comes back. He was Spider-Man for a year, you know.

ST/D - James Tuthill and Danny Boyd were battling for the kicking position but lost out to Seth Marler. Who? It makes you wonder what the fighting is for. The team's offense won't give them a chance to reach 100 points. (See also; the Miami Heat) Defensively is where the talent lies. New coach Jack Del Rio has lured End Hugh Douglas from Philadelphia and LB Mike Peterson from Indy. Marcus Stroud and John Henderson could also produce some numbers from the tackle position.

Prediction: The defensive unit is on the way up, but not there yet. Douglas and Peterson look like good bets. The JAX kicker isn't worth the effort of putting a pen upon paper to draw ink from it to write his name.

Tennessee

QB - Steve McNair has made the transition from scrambling QB to pocket passer. He overcame plenty of injuries to have his second solid passing campaign. He tossed 22 Td's, 3,300 yards and ran for three scores as well. All signs point for him to have another solid season. The loss of Kevin Dyson might hurt, not as bad as Dyson's ruptured Achilles tendon hurt Dyson. Youch! McNair has the tendency to get dinged up like a Kia in a hailstorm, but he is also strong enough to play through it.

Prediction: McNair finishes in the top ten in QB's and leads the league in being listed as "questionable."

RB - Eddie George has to be looked at differently now. His days of a workhorse are over. The Titans got mileage out of George that a Ford Festiva would be proud of. But he still has value, but should be viewed as more of a fullback type now. He managed 14 scores last year, so lets not give him his last rites just yet. But his yardage will drop from his 1,100 yards of last year. Robert Holcombe spelled George last year, which wasn't that impressive considering he did go to college. He was their third down back and could start to chisel some more yardage away from George.

Prediction: George will score double digit touchdowns, but he will see is stats fall, and barring a George injury, Holcombe doesn't do enough to warrant a pick.

WR/TE - Derrick Mason has become the solid number one if only by default. He finished last year with 1,000 yards and five scores and will probably get more action with the departure of Dyson. But as easy as that math sounds, I find it hard to believe he will begin to crank up the big stats now. I think his numbers will go up, but not substantially. Drew Bennett will see his numbers rise this year. Given he only had 400 yards and two scores, he will use his size and speed to hopefully become a bigger part of the offense. Frank Wycheck window is closing, so if you have always been a super big fan of his, and you really liked him and always wanted to pick him, this might be your last chance, weirdo.

Prediction: Mason and Bennett's stats rise as Wycheck fades into the distance.

ST/D - Joe Nedney has the chance top be a top 15 kicker this year. If the Titans can stay healthy, he could be a decent kicker. Every year big numbers are expected of him, but he doesn't quite live up to it. The return of Jevon Kearse will bolster the defensive unit. He wants to get back to his double digit sack totals. Kevin Carter finally showed a pulse last year and played up to his potential, reaching 10 sacks.

Prediction: Slightly above average performances all the way around, with the exception of Kearse, who returns in grand fashion.

Houston

QB - David Carr showed flashes of why the Texans picked him first overall last season. He has a big, accurate arm, great leadership skills and a toughness that comes from being sacked 76 times. Oh wait, I meant a numbness that comes from being sacked 76 times. He didn't complain and hung in the pocket, earning the respect of his teammates and it also means those teammates aren't allowed to complain about injuries, which is an added bonus. Nobody can expect good numbers from a first year QB on a first year expansion club. He had nine touchdown passes, 2500 yards and three rushing touchdowns last year. But I'm not sure if you can count on those rushing totals again this year, as Carr has never been known as a runner. I could run pretty fast if I were being chased by a guy with a machete, but I wouldn't put that down as my official time in the 40-yard dash. What are you going to see this year? An offensive line and receivers that should be improved and that should translate into better numbers for Carr.

Prediction: Maybe 16 touchdowns and 3,200 yards. He is still a few players from being a star, but he is on the way up.

RB - Stacy Mack was brought in to give some life to running game that managed only 1,000 yards and three TD's from their running backs. Mack had nine scores with Jacksonville last year, which is good, but only 400 yards, which is bad. So he is the straight-ahead, goal line type of player. The team will need to move the ball consistently before it can have the luxury of a goal line back. It's like buying Air Jordan's before you can walk. You need to grown into them. They are hoping he can work with Jonathan Wells who will see action on third down because Mack has as much catching experience as Steve Carlton. Wells saw limited action last year, but he will be a part time contributor.

Prediction: Mack won't crack the 1,000-yard plateau, but he will score a half dozen or so touchdowns. Wells won't see much action, so don't use a pick on him.

WR/TE - The drafting of Andre Johnson is exciting for Houston. It gives the Texans a big time target in the mold of Terrell Owens. He is big, strong and fast, but hopefully without the attitude. Last year, the team surrounded Carr with weapons that a caveman would scoff at. Johnson looks to be the real deal, but time will have to tell the story here. The case history usually says a receiver needs a year or two in the league before he will contribute. That might be the case, as teams will look to stop Johnson because Corey Bradford doesn't strike that much fear in anybody's heart. Sure, Bradford had six scores and 700 yards last year, but he hasn't broken out yet. He does have a year of experience in the system and might see more action than Johnson. But let's be honest, if either one of these two hits 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, they will put their face on the Texas commerative quarter. The team also has depth at tight end. Billy Miller picked up 600 yards last year and had three scores. Second round pick Bennie Joppru could also contribute, considering he has good blocking skills to accompany good hands.

Prediction: In a coin flip, I like Bradford to have a slightly better year than Johnson, who will make the highlight reel a few times. Miller is a good sleeper at TE.

ST/D - Kris Brown was signed to give stability at the kicker position. He hasn't been that stable and the offense struggled last year. Talk about a win-win for everyone involved! The team is still a year or so away from clicking big time offensively, so avoid Brown. Coach Dom Capers is defensive oriented, and his unit is trying to reflect that, but they aren't there yet. CB Aaron Glenn is a lock to return an interception for a score and will probably get five picks again this year. The rest of the unit is middle of the road, with LB's Jay Foreman and Jamie Sharper getting plenty of solo tackles.

Prediction: Glenn is worth an individual pick and the LB's, but the rest of the unit is shaky at best.