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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - AFC West
8/28/03

Denver

QB - One of the biggest fantasy questions pertains to Jake Plummer. Can he thrive in coach Mike Shanahan's offense? So far in his career, Plummer's strength is rolling out of the pocket and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Given, he played on some plain awful Cardinal teams explains some things, but the future is on the line for both of these two, so they will find a way to make it happen. If not, Shanahan might be gone next year and the team will be saddled with another overrated QB.

Prediction: They find a way to make it work and serve as an inspiration to the millions of common folks who deal with the everyday pressure of scheming an offense for a professional football team.

RB - There is a handful of running back being mentioned as a possible number one pick. Clinton Portis' name has been thrown out there and has a much of a claim to the spot as anyone. He put up crazy numbers last year running for over 1,500 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. He closed stronger than a steel door last year. In his final nine games, he broke the century mark six times and had five mutli-touchdown games. So to expect similar numbers is fair, to hope for an improvement is greedy, but not out the realm of possibility. The Bronco offensive line's style of play is, how can I say it, dirtier than an after hours hook-up between Prince and Jenna Jameson. That style has enabled Portis, Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary to succeed. Geez, the only one with a greater track record than that is Jesse Owens.

Prediction: Crazy numbers to place him as one of the top three scorers in the league and, mark my words, a defensive lineman will "accidentally" break his leg during a game against the Broncos. Watch for it.

WR/TE - Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith are getting up there in age. Smith led the team with a little over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. McCaffrey finished with 900 yards and two scores. Only Breckenridge has more people on the downhill that this receiving group. The team is banking on speedy Ashley Lelie to become the number one guy this year. He finished well with his only two scores coming in the final four games. If he can get a rapport with Plummer, he could have a big year as defenses try to stop Portis. Shannon Sharpe is in his final campaign and I'm sure he will go out with the subdued style and reserved charm we have all come to expect from him. He is a professional though and should be on par with his usual 500 yards and 4 score campaigns of recent seasons.

Prediction: I see a big improvement in Lelie, and consistency from Sharpe. However, McCaffrey and Smith will provide window dressing that local Mannequin Union 247 would be proud of.

K/D - Jason Elam will once again finish in the top five in scoring. It might sound a little anti-climatic but he has the big leg, a good offense to follow and thin air. The last person to take such advantage of their altitude was Bob Marley during the "Exodus" recordings. Defensive end Trevor Pryce will get you sacks as he has averaged more than 10 a year over the past four seasons. Linebackers Al Wilson and Ian Gold should be a source of plenty of tackles and a few sacks. Former star corner Deltha O'Neal should be avoided after he was lit up more often last year than a Marlboro at Denis Leary's house.

Prediction: Elam shines, the team unit is spotty, but Pryce, Wilson and Gold should be solid.

Oakland

QB - "Rich Gannon is getting up there in years and this is the season that he comes back to earth" Yes, I made that statement, but the thing is I made that statement in 1998.I always think this is the years that he's comes crashing back to earth like SkyLab. But, as usual, he proved me wrong. He was crazy good last year with 4,600 passing yards, 26 TD passes and three rushing scores. People are expecting the Raiders to run more this year. They ran for 1700 yards a sa team last year, it isn't like they were just ignoring the run and just executing the run-and-shoot. I will no longer doubt Gannon. It makes me look bad every year, like the Stars-and-Bars thong I break out on Independence Day.

Prediction: He won't throe for 4,600 yards again, but his numbers will be very similar to last year and he remains a top 5 QB.

RB - No respect for Charlie Garner. 1,900 total yards and 11 touchdowns last year, but everyone just glazes over it and no one appreciates how good it is it, kind of like Ringo's drumming on "Abbey Road". Yes, he will lose carries, but I don't think Tyrone Wheatley and Zach Crockett are really going to be responsible for Garner loosing that much stat-wise. He knows the system, he is durable and if the Raiders do choose to run more this year, he will be the main beneficiary. Things look good for him.

Prediction: Similar numbers in yardage, a slight increase in touchdowns and limited respect could be a coup for you on draft day.

WR/TE - I think a wooden stake to the heart is the only thing that will stop Jerry Rice. He is no longer a number one receiver, but 1,200 yards and seven scores are pretty good stats for your number two guy. The hot name is Jerry Porter. He had a decent year last year with 600 yards, but nine scores have everyone thinking this is the year they ease Tim Brown out a little more and bring Porter in. Brown had 900 yards last year, but two scores in the first three weeks and not a single score the rest of the season. The transition is hopefully taking place and Porter is poised to be a star, but he doesn't have the track record yet to deserve it, kind of like Colin Ferrel. Doug Jolley plays in a system that passes a lot features the tight end, so he looks to improve on his 400 yard-two touchdown season of last year. He will be a top ten TE this year.

Prediction: Rice stays the same, Brown looses yards and Porter breaks out like he washed his face with butter. Jolley should be solid, but not gaudy stat wise.

ST/D - What can you say about Sebastian Janikowski that hasn't already been read in a plea agreement by his lawyer? He will remain a top five kicker this year and is always close to being the number one kicker every campaign. He was good boy last year and the Raiders hope that trend continues. The defensive unit has value only because of the stars it has in its backfield. Rod Woodson had eight picks, Charles Woodson is always a threat to run one back and hopes are high for Phillip Buchanon. The rest of the unit is pretty plain.

Prediction: Big year from SeaBass, good individual performances by their big three but the rest if the group gets a year slower and older. I also predict this is the year that Bill Romanowski winds himself entirely too tight and has a "Scanners" type moment where his head just explodes.

Kansas City

QB - Trent Green had a solid, but quiet season last year. Lost in the year of the Priest, Green finished with 26 touchdowns and 3,600 yards. He is playing like the player the Chiefs hopes he would be. The problem was Holmes was so efficient last year, it actually cut in to Green's stats. With so many questions regarding Holmes health and teams stacking the line stop the run, Green could actually improve on his stats. The problem lies with his receivers. Oh how his problems lie with his receivers. If this mediocre unit and Tony Gonzalez can make marginal improvements, Green will boost his stats. He is not mobile and he is not a runner, just ask Rodney Harrison.

Prediction: Slight stat improvement, solidifies place in the top ten for next season.

RB - The biggest fantasy question this year surrounds Priest Holmes' hip. His hip injury obscured a gargantuan statistical campaign this offseason. 2,220 total yards and 24 touchdowns in 14 games. For cryin' out load, he had four games where he scored three or more touchdowns. But his injury has left people wondering if he can come back and take his spot as the number one pick this year. Nobody knows. You can go back and forth. He raises more questions than the Riddler with amnesia. (Yes, I realize the gray area of this joke because if the Riddler did have amnesia, would he remember he was the Riddler? I need some room, you're suffocating me.) The team drafted Larry Johnson in the first round as insurance. Injury concerns make you think of drafting him, but he isn't worth the pick.

Prediction: Holmes stays healthy and has another big year, but I don't take him number one because the risk of the unknown scares me more than investing my retirement savings in this stock market.

WR/TE - If hopes are really high for Mark Boerigter, things aren't looking good at our WR spot. I haven't seen such glaring weakness on public display since Tarantino wanted to act. Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton were supposed to be contributors, but they combined for stats of 1,200 yards and three scores. That is just awful. Boerigter is on the upswing because if you finish with 8 touchdowns on 20 catches on a team without a number one receiver, you stick out a little bit. If they can find a spot for him, which they will, his numbers will rise. Gonzalez is still the best tight end in the league, and is almost predictable in your expectations of him. You'll get 700 yards, seven touchdowns and a story on Sportscenter about his delusional belief that he can play in the NBA. He earned that invitation to the summer league like that Lisa Marie Presley earned her record contract.

Prediction: Boerigter steps up and becomes the number one, Kennison and Morton will be dogs and Gonzalez will go the Pro Bowl.

ST/D - Morten Andersen benefited from the year the offense had and scored 117 points despite missing two games. He doesn't have the leg strength anymore and but his trademark accuracy is still there. Keep an eye on his health, but he could finish near the end of the top ten if healthy. The team stunk defensively last year. They allowed more 30 point games this side of Antwan Jamison. They didn't add anyone in the draft, though Vonnie Holliday and Shawn Barber were good pickups through free agency. But they lack individual playmakers.

Prediction: If Andersen is healthy, he will have a good year again. The team unit is on the rise, but if you sit up from laying flat on your back, you are technically on the rise as well.

San Diego

QB - Drew Brees will not have a big season this year. If Marty Schottenheimer plays his hand any closer to his vest, his arms going to cramp up. Brees will be asked to go in and not make any mistakes and pick up some first downs. He is the quarterback equivalent of a fullback. Even with the arrival of David Boston, he number will only improve marginally. If good fantasy players are a product of the system, Brees is an example of a bad system producing a bad fantasy player.

Prediction: He will be good for about one touchdown a game and people who see him without his helmet will say something about him having some dirt on his face.

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson can also stake his claim as one of the few players who could be the potential number one draft pick. He has gotten better in each of his two years and had a big campaign last year with over 2,100 combined yards and 15 scores. He will be helped by the arrival of Boston as well, as teams will no longer be able to put eight guys in the box. He is a tough and durable, with durability being the big decision maker at the top of the draft this year. He will be a top 5 back for sure, but I hate to think I'm drafting someone just because they don't get hurt. If toughness and durability were the most important things, cleaning women would be treated like supermodels.

Prediction: LaDainian has a big year and will warrant the high pick, but not the top pick.

WR/TE - David Boston is a physical freak. Just look at his arms, if they get any bigger, they might burst. His signing gives the offense a boost, but will they transfer into big receiving numbers in a conservative offense? I don't see big numbers on the horizon. He has had one great year, but with Arizona, you can't make an accurate read. I hate to blame everything on the Cardinals; I'm starting sound like a bitchy secretary at the Vatican. But the offense doesn't lend itself to big passing yards. He will do a 1,200 eight-touchdown season and it will seen as a success. Reche Caldwell might become a solid number two, but their aren't enough passes for him to be considered a fantasy threat. Tim Dwight is the guy who gives it his all on every play. He is fun to watch, but I don't want him on my fantasy team. Kind of like David Copperfield. Stephen Alexander is an average tight end who will produce average numbers. Not my most original critique, but its hard to make melba toast sound sexy.

Prediction: Boston is the only player drawing fantasy consideration, but my question is if it's true he walks around with a picture of himself with his shirt off to show the ladies. If so, he stole my idea. Call me when you have an original idea, Boston!

ST/D - Steve Christie is still kicking around. He will be the kicker this year and I find it hard to believe the offense is going to be wide open enough to score enough points to make him draft worthy. The team unit was pretty awful last year. They don't look to make that many strides, but LB Donnie Edwards finished with 100 solo tackles, so keep him in mind.

Prediction: Contrary to popular belief, I just realized they're aren't that many funny Steve Christie/crummy defense jokes floating around out there.