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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - NFC North
7/27/03

Chicago Bears

QB - Kordell Stewart can take a season with 14 touchdown passes and parlay it into a decent fantasy season. That is a trick David Blaine would have trouble explaining. The importance of running yards has covered more quarterback blemishes than a pound of pancake makeup. With his career on the downturn, he looks to make his last stand in the Windy City, but smart money says he might be blown away. Or, he might just blow. The expectations for Kordell aren't that high in the Bears low risk offense. But the drafting of Rex Grossman might force Kordell to double wrap his fragile physce in extra thick bubble wrap. Even with his tenuous grasp on the offense, this is a team that moves the ball on the ground. For crying out loud, Erik Kramer still holds passing records there.

Prediction: If Kordell's stock can dip, it will. Grossman might be starting by the end of the year; there are no winners here.

RB - If you drafted Anthony Thomas high last year, you can look back and wish you were high, at least then you would have an explanation on making such a lousy pick. Poised for a breakthrough season, he spent a half of the year running into his blockers and the other half falling down after contact. So the Bears, a running team, finished last in the league in rushing. What do they do now? Thomas returns, but don't expect him to become the player people thought he would be last year. The buzz has the team giving serious looks to Adrian Peterson. They may as well start hoping to see production from Adrian Dantley.

Prediction: The team scored 8 team touchdowns on the ground, that number might go up from the addition of Kordell, but not from the principals involved.

WR/TE - Oddly enough, the receiving corps combined for a respectable 22 scores last year. Marty Booker led the way with 97 receptions that yielded almost 1,200 yards. He is a possession receiver and only finished with 6 touchdowns. He will continue to see plenty of short passes as the offense is about as wide open as a broom closet. Dez White and David Terrell look to pick up the slack. White finished with a handful of touchdowns; it might have been more if those hands could consistently catch anything. Terrell, a former first rounder, is known for a mouth that has surpassed his talent level thus far. He broke the foot he previously injured in college last year, but the Bears hope he can use his speed and athleticism to open up the field. Desmond Clark comes over after a stint in Miami and the Bears pray they can get the player who was a big contributor for the Broncos a few years ago. Don't hold your breath.

Prediction: Booker's numbers can't get much higher, so maybe a slight increase. White falls back as Terrell emerges as a deep threat on a team that doesn't throw deep. Clark will not produce average numbers.

ST/D - Paul Edinger is capable of scoring plenty of points for the Bears, just as I'm capable of scoring with lingerie models. It all comes down to the number of opportunities you receive, and things don't look good for the either of us. His numbers tumbled last year and I don't see an offensive resurrection coming any time soon.

Defensively, Brian Urlacher is the best LB in the NFC, if not the league. He should be your top pick if you like solo tackles and old school fundamentals. The loss of Rosie Colvin will hurt, but nothing can seemingly bring Urlacher to a complete stop, with the exception of his personal kryptonite, fast dancing.

Prediction: Numbers don't change for either Edinger or Urlacher, which is good news for some and bad news for others. Kind of like that Journey reunion.

Detroit Lions

QB - There is talk about Steve Mariucci creating his next great quarterback in Detroit. After working with Brett Favre, Steve Young and Jeff Garcia, expectations are high. Joey Harrington will eventually be a success, but greatness will have to wait a year. Harrington played full time in 11 games last year, before an irregular heartbeat ended his season. They said it was beating 200 times a minute, a speed that can only be properly measured on the "male celibate on wedding night" scale. It's hard to get excited about his numbers last year. In the 11 games he played full time, he threw only 12 touchdowns. He did have an upside, with his touchdowns coming from an average of 27 yards, a league high. But he also has the propensity to get rid of the ball too quickly and hasn't shown any running ability. However, he will be better, especially with the arrival of Charles Rogers. And let's face it; the departure of Marty Morninweg eventually helps everyone, doesn't it?

Prediction: A 50 percent increase in numbers, which still doesn't warrant anything to write home about.

RB - James Stewart hasn't exactly been the star the team hoped he would be after his breakout season in Jacksonville. The Lions have been miserable in their attempts to run the ball the past two years, and he only received 231 attempts in the 14 games he played last season. Mariucci's 49ers were in the top five in rushing attempts during the same time frame.

A rise in the number of his attempts will correspond with the rise in his stats. So expect some improvement, but not enough to forget that guy named Sanders. That would be Barry, not the Colonel. (Insert hilarious cole slaw joke here.)

Prediction: A solid increase in numbers, but once again, not worth getting excited about.

WR/TE - Talk of Charles Rogers being the next big receiver might be warranted. He was a scoring machine at Michigan State and has the size and speed to help kickstart the Lion offense. But, as most fantasy owners have found out the hard way, a rookie receiver's track record is as spotty as a drop cloth. Everyone wants the next Moss in his first year, but usually end up with a nice portion of Peter Warrick with a side order of Yatil Green. But Rogers is blessed with an offensive minded coach with a good young QB, so he will have some moderate success. All enthusiasm should be tempered because, let's not forget, these are the Lions. And nothing reminds you of that fact quicker that a glance at last years leading receivers. Stewart with 46 catches and then the big dollar free agent stars Az-Hakim and Bill Schroeder. Matt Millen has an eye for talent that only glaucoma patients could appreciate. Hakim ended with 37 catches and three touchdowns before suffering a hip injury. Schroeder scored five times with his 36 receptions. They combined for a little over 1,100 yards. The Lions hope Rogers can produce as much as those two put together. It's the old riddle: Does the quarterback stink because he has bad receivers or do the receivers stink because they are overpaid chumps. It's a question as old as time itself. Mikhael Ricks is a bulked up wide receiver that has become a tight end. Tight ends have found success with Mariucci in the past, but those three touchdowns from last year look about right this go around.

Prediction: A reason get excited with Rogers maybe getting 800 yards and 6 touchdowns, and maybe a little more than that. Only reason to write home about Schroeder or Az-Hakim is to see if you still have the receipt and to find out what exactly the return policy is. Ricks will produce no change from last year, so technically, you can't call it production.

ST/D - Jason Hanson is as unspectacular as vanilla ice cream. No, not that fancy French vanilla, just that 3-gallon tub you buy. He is predictable in that he will just reach 100 points on the nose and is consistent when your highest aspiration is to have him finish in the middle of the pack. Defensively, the big dollar signing of Dre Bly reiterates the saying about a fool and his money. A possible resurgence by Luther Ellis might happen or speedy rookie linebacker Boss Bailey might find some success, but it is hard to think about drafting a defensive player from this squad.

Green Bay Packers

QB - If you are looking for durability and guts in your QB, Brett Favre is your guy. However, if you are looking for a premier QB to build your team around, I think those days are behind the three-time MVP. He is still lively and at this time, he is the face of the NFL, which is fine, if you are really into prominent chins. He has shown that he can still sling it, tossing 59 touchdowns in his last two seasons and he is durable as his consecutive game streak is at 173 games. He has never been a runner, and that hurts his value in this era of the mobile QB. He says he will not be distracted by retirement talk and might be around for a few more years.

Prediction: Numbers decline slightly, perhaps due to the incessant snapping and unsnapping of his chinstrap.

RB - Ahman Green. Greatness was expected from Ahman Green last year, but he never quite seemed to get there. His year was strange from a scoring standpoint. No TD's in his first 5 games, 9 in his next 5 games, than 1 the remainder of the season. That's like a steak sandwich on moldy bread. A weird grouping shouldn't detract you from such a versatile back. When nine touchdowns are a disappointment, you must have some skills. And those skills will help him bounce back.
Prediction: Numbers will rise from last year and next year his stats will not resemble something from the Underhill's bill.

WR/TE - Yes, Favre will throw some TD's, but to whom you wonder? Driver emerged from the Packs pack of faceless receivers to claim the number one spot. He opened fast and led the team with nine scores. When the Terry Glenn experiment produced boffo results reminiscent of Pluto Nash, that should have opened the door for the other two featured receivers. In a transition year where Favre was looking for other passing options, neither Robert Ferguson nor Javon Walker contributed. A year has passed and you can chalk it up to experience, but that is one less year with a QB in a slow decline. Not good. At tight end, Franks seems to be the money man around the goal line, with six of his seven scores coming from six yards or closer. His emergence in close quarters keeps owners wondering about how many TD's Green will lose, the lack of other passing options in the red zone and how many second chances will Eddie Murphy get?

Prediction: Driver continues to improve slightly. Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker stand pat and dream of mediocrity and Franks will see a slight drop as the receiving equivalent of a fullback.

ST/D - Ryan Longwell is a lock to be a top 5 kicker again this year, where he has finished four of the last six seasons. He doesn't have that big of a leg, but his accuracy is why he remains so productive. Expect another solid year from him and more foolish remarks from the television broadcaster about how appropriate his name is after a long FG.

Defensively, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila led the team with 11.5 sacks. Vonnie Holliday signed with the Chiefs, which will put more pressure on Gbaja-Biamila to perform while also keeping all spell check programs across the nation busy. Darren Sharper is the other big time contributor who has averaged more than 7 interceptions in each of the past 3 years.

Prediction: No big changes statistically this year as these three remain at the top of their positions.

Minnesota Vikings

QB - Daunte Culpepper is an interesting case. Regardless of his mediocre passing numbers, he will be a top 3 QB this year. I haven't seen a lack of fundamental skills forgiven so quickly since Pamela Anderson's Peabody award winning work on "V.I.P.". Culpepper makes up for his flaws with his feet. He is big and mobile, running for 600 yards and 10 scores last season. You can always count on his running to remedy whatever happens the rest of the season. But what is most encouraging is he may be rounding back into his '01 fantasy MVP form. After taking out the "Randy Ratio" late in the year, Culpepper finished with a flourish. In his last seven games, he threw 10 scores and ran for six TD's. If you can project that over the entire season, you must be good with numbers. He will also see plenty of throwing chances due to the fact the Vikes have a defense that will allow more scoring than a madam with financial concerns.

Prediction: Every thing seems to point to bigger year from the super-sized QB, so draft him appropriately.

RB - This is where it gets interesting. The possible season ending injury to Michael Bennett puts the position up for grabs. Moe Williams scored 11 times last year, but he was the short yardage specialist, only "running" for 400 yards. That trend seems like a lock to continue. It looks as if rookie Onterrio Smith might be the answer. It's too bad the question was, "Do we have a smallish, unproven running back on our roster?" The Vikes will find out if he has put his troubled past behind him and will end up giving him a bulk of the carries.

Prediction: For Smith, similar results to Bennett's rookie season, 600 yards and a handful of scores, might be the end result. If you draft Williams, expect a decline.

WR/TE - Fantasy owners were salivating at the thought of Randy Moss being thrown to 40 percent of their offensive plays. But over time, the plan seemed as forced as that damn "American Idol" movie. The ratio backfired early on as he scored only four times in his first 10 games and reached the 100-yard mark a measly three times. The switch away from the plan saw Moss close out the year averaging 100 yards a game over the last five contests with three touchdowns. That is more like the Moss we will see this year. Can Moss get a little help? It isn't like he can try on every play. D'Wayne Bates was signed to an offer sheet last year and produced 50 catches and four scores. But a 50 percent improvement is necessary to justify his money and to take pressure off Moss. I don't see it happening. Byron Chamberlain will miss the first four games for violating the league's substance policy. He will be more productive in his return, as he will score as many touchdowns on suspension as he scored playing last year. Zero. He can only improve.

Prediction: The trinity of top tier receivers stays intact with Moss fighting for the number one spot again, a solid increase will warrant you to draft accordingly. For Bates I don't see a great change in those numbers. Wait for Chamberlain and take him late as he is on the upside for 12 games.

ST/D - If Gary Anderson gets any older, they will have to carbon date him to get an accurate age. It looks as if he won't be back this year, but didn't we say that last year as he finished with 111 points? Hayden Epstein seems to have the inside track, which speaks volumes about the dire state of the kicking game. Steer clear of this until new information comes out or if you are absolutely screwed and need a kicker because you messed up your draft due to a lack of preparation. At least that way you can't blame me.

Defensively, tackle Chris Hovan can produce some numbers for you. He had five sacks last year and the drafting of tackle Kevin Williams in the first round should free up Hovan a bit. The rest of the defensive unit is about as impressive as a greatest hits disc from Men at Work.

Prediction: Epstein or the kicker du jour will produce top 10 numbers; Hovan's totals rise with gradual defensive help, since they now have Williams in camp.