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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - NFC South
8/21/03

Tampa Bay

QB - Anyone still holding out hope that Jon Gruden can transform Brad Johnson into Rich Gannon needs to face the fact that having Johnson as your keeper pick is just a dead end. Deal with it. There isn't enough black magic in Haiti to make Brad Johnson a top tier QB option this year.

He wasn't bad last year. He threw for 3,000 yards and 22 scores which were numbers that placed him squarely in the middle of the pack. He even finished with a flurry, tossing 15 touchdowns in the final six regular season games he played. But his cranky back acted up and he missed the final two regular season games. What was even more distressing was the fact that he still wears his hair in a middle part. Who does he think he is, Vince Ferragamo?

Prediction: He has always been accurate, but mobility has always been an issue, kind of like my grandmother playing Jai Alai. The Gruden system helps produce good numbers but I don't think Johnson does anything beyond good this year.

RB - This is where it gets interesting. Michael Pittman wanted to dispel any thoughts that he actually has his act together and spent the off-season getting arrested for ramming his vehicle into his wife's car, which had his child inside. A rational act from a rational man. They traded with Cardinals to bring in first round bust Thomas Jones. The Bucs hope Jones pulls a Simeon Rice and continues the trend of former Cardinal players thriving in Tampa once they leave the desert. (Wait, didn't Pittman come from the Cardinals as well?) Mike Alstott returns to give some stability to running attack and the economy of bar owners in the region. Buyer beware before investing into any part of this group. Their prospects remind me of one of those live albums by Rush. There is individual talent and some of the players have their moments, but it will get old fast and will seemingly drag on for a thousand lifetimes, producing a steady string of banality before it comes to a merciful end.

Predictions: I expect too much diversity from the trio to produce good individual numbers for any of these three. I also expect an inordinate amount of hate mail from an angry and confused Geddy Lee.

WR/TE - Has Anyone ever talked so much and produced so little as Keyshawn Johnson? The glorified possession receiver is coming off a year, where he scored five touchdowns and didn't quite make it to 1,110 yards. If you rag on Wayne Chrebet, you should at least put up better numbers than him. Keyshawn lacks speed, so he isn't a deep threat and he will get most of his catches underneath. He has scored 14 touchdowns in the past three years. If those numbers stagnate any longer, he will start to attract mosquitoes.

On a team full of possession receivers, Keenan McCardell might be the best one. That doesn't reflect well on them. The 13-year pro scored six times last year and hopes to improve on that figure, though the odds are against him. Tight ends Ken Dilger and Ricky Dudley should have a big upside, but they really don't. Dilger is wrapping things up in his career and Dudley still looks as if someone startled him. To see them contribute big numbers is what would be startling.

Prediction: Average to below average results for anyone catching the ball. Not unlike the Mets.

K/D - The best fantasy options for Tampa Bay come in this category. Martin Gramatica reminds me of Terry Bradshaw. I just want to punch him in the face, but I don't like to wait in long lines. The thing with Gramatica is that he actually puts up the numbers to back up his grating personality. He gets scoring opportunities with 39 FG attempts, he has a big leg with 5 field goals over 50 yards and finished in the top five in points scored. He is the person everyone else hates, but you love him when he is your side. It's that lunatic cabbie/Rickey Henderson kind of thing. He will not disappoint this year.

The defense is where the gems are. Simeon Rice was second in the league in sacks with 16. Brian Kelly led the NFL with 8 interceptions and Derrick Brooks was the Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to know how good Warren Sapp is, just ask him. The team unit is the best in the game and those four players are at the top of their positions. The team is hungry and motivated for a repeat. The offense might not be there, but with the defense, it might not matter.

Prediction: A whole lot of jawing and a whole lot of production.

New Orleans

QB - Who is second in the NFL in touchdowns passes over the past two years? If you didn't guess Aaron Brooks, maybe you should pay attention to your surroundings. Brooks is young, spindly and has a big arm. But the suspension bridge-like collapse of the Saints over the past two years has people looking for scapegoat, and John Forcade isn't around to take the blame.

Brooks will make the fans choose if he is the hero or the goat this season. Talent at the WR and RB position surrounds him. The offense is wide open and he has the chance to put up big numbers again this year. He was second in the league with 27 touchdown passes; he threw for 3,500 yards and ran for a pair of scores as well. If he can stay healthy and show some leadership he will make the fans happier than frat boy with a 1,000 pair of beads and a camcorder.

Prediction: Brooks makes the small move up into the highest tier of fantasy QB's, all while running around on a pair of spider legs. I implore you, look at his legs sometime; it looks like someone wrapped some tissue paper around a pair of broom handles.

RB - The trade of Ricky Williams helped both teams. It rid the Saints of the enigmatic Williams who was able to mature with the Dolphins while opening up the spot for Deuce McAllister. He justified the Saints faith in him last year and is poised for another Prudhomme-sized campaign this year.

Deuce led the NFC with 1,388 yards and combined to score 16 total touchdowns. He almost has that Earl Campbell combo of speed and power that makes him a threat to score every time he gets the ball. The Saints like to run the ball as well, so things look good for Deuce. The only problem is that he tends to get nicked up, even going back to his days at Ole Miss. If he stays healthy, he could lead the NFL in rushing. If he doesn't stay healthy, he won't lead the league is rushing. You heard it here first.

Prediction: Another huge year from Deuce with a nice statistical improvement.

WR/TE - Joe Horn wants the ball all the time. And no, it isn't because he has a big mouth and any equally big ego and likes to back up his with his play or anything like that. Seriously. Why are you laughing? Horn has been consistent since his arrival in New Orleans. He has averaged 8 scores and 1,200 yards in his three year tenure. As good as he has been, second year man Donte Stallworth might move him aside stat-wise. He was waging his ongoing battle with his hamstrings that saw him miss three games last year and limit his receptions to 42. But he did manage eight touchdowns in catching half as many passes as Horn. Stallworth has the speed to stretch the field, which will give him big time opportunities awhile also opening thing for Horn across the middle. Good news for everyone. The tight end position has as many bland choices as a menu from IHOP. Ernie Conwell, David Sloan and Boo Williams also remind me of the band Rush. No, wait, uh never mind. The offense doesn't feature the tight end much, so draft at your own risk.

Prediction: Stallworth stays healthy and posts a big year. Horn stays level and the tight ends stay away from gratuitous things like big stats for the greater good of the team.

ST/D - John Carney has revived his career and looks to continue his success this year. The Saints will move the ball and give Carney a chance to see more kicking indoors since the start of the Billy Batts scene in GoodFellas. He won't get his shine box, but he will be a top five kicker again, you f***in' mutt, ya!

As much as coach Jim Haslett wants to be a defensive guy, he still doesn't have the personnel. Darren Howard and Charles Grant hope to improve on a year where they each picked up seven sacks. As a unit, the squad is slow and will give up a lot of points. This isn't the place to look for playmakers, but Tebucky Jones might have an impact.

Carney will be good, but the defense has more holes than Billy Batts at the end of his scene in GoodFellas.

Atlanta

QB - The sexy as fishnet stockings pick this year has to be Michael Vick. That long touchdown run against Minnesota at the end of last year opened a lot of eyes and nothing has made more owners salivate since the creation of deep fried bacon. Vick worked on his mechanics over the winter and has played well so far in the preseason. Add Peerless Price and the tongues wag even more. The danger with Vick is that he is so talented, where do you put the ceiling on him? Can you expect him to throw 30 scores and run for 15? I think you can, but all owners have visions dancing in their heads. He will be better than last year's 16 TD throws and 7 runs. The yardage is where it gets crazy. Could he throw for 3,500 yards and run for 900?

Prediction: I think he will be great and he will cement his place as the future #1 overall pick for the next 5-7 years. The stock is way up, but I don't know how high.

RB - Warrick Dunn and T.J Duckett will have to find a way to coexist. Dunn was quietly successful with nine touchdowns and 1,300 combined yards. Duckett was the short yardage guy with 4 touchdowns on 500 rushing yards. His first round selection by the Falcons after they dropped big coin on Duckett was the worst personnel choice since Sofia Coppola in Godfather III. They will have to find a way to make it work without their being any controversy, all the while watching as Vick runs the ball in from every distance. It is just an odd situation.

Prediction: These two get left in the wake of Vick's emergence. Take Dunn late because he will still be a yardage threat. Duckett is a threat because of his size, but that only goes so far without talent, just ask Big Daddy Wilkinson.

WR/TE - Things look good for Peerless Price. He comes off his breakout year and hooks up with the hottest quarterback in the league. No offense to Brian Finneran, but he is the top target for Vick now and they have been working on their chemistry. He does have is questions regarding his ability to be a number one receiver in the league without the help from Eric Moulds. His 1,200 yards and nine Td's were career highs for him. Questions also surround the audacity of his mother to name him Peerless. He better live up to that name, I don't think Moms would settle for Peerless, the nighttime janitor at Home Depot. Finneran will benefit from Price drawing attention and could improve on last years totals of 800 yards and six scores. Alge Crumpler, son of Carlester, will also see some improvement. His speed is his weapon and he will use it on the rug of the Georgia Dome.

Prediction: Price will be similar to last year with Finneran and Crumpler seeing the most improvement.

ST/D - Jay Feely finished an impressive season by leading almost every kicking category. Giving further proof that the best kickers usually aren't drafted high and that not all of them love those old MGM musicals of the 50's. That is such a stereotype. Dan Reeves is as conservative as a coach can be with Michael Vick around, so instead of trying anything risky, they will go for a three. That is called the Antoine Walker strategy. The defense as a team is solid and doesn't score a lot of touchdowns, but they finished in the top five in sacks. Patrick Kerney led the team with 10 sacks. But the individual prize of the team if Keith Brooking. He is quietly becoming one the best linebackers in the game. He finished with111 solo tackles last year and is looking to justify his new contract.

Predictions: Feely will not surprise this year and will once again be a top five talent. The team will be a top ten unit with Brooking solidifying your individual defense.

Carolina

QB - With all due respect to Rodney Peete, he is a less than average NFL quarterback. All he had to was beat out Chris Weinke last season and run John Fox's super conservative offense. That works out to about a touchdown pass and 180 passing yards a game. Those are great numbers if you are a NFL quarterback with one leg, but alas, Peete has both legs, and he can't even use them to scramble for some rushing touchdowns. Thank you for nothing, Rodney. So in comes Jake Delhomme from the Saints bench. He will look to electrify the offense to the tune of 190 passing yards a game. Hold on to your hats, Charlotte!!! The offense will remain conservative and as dry as the Gobi Desert.

Prediction: Avoid Carolina QB's like they are made of radioactive materials.

RB - Oddly enough, the offense might actually be a good fit for Stephen Davis. After being cut loose from the Redskins, he signed with the Panthers and looks to be a perfect fit. He is big, he can give you 25-30 carries a game and he wants to prove that he still has something in the tank. He has the potential to put up huge numbers this year. DeShaun Foster's return might make some owners skittish. He is coming off knee surgery last season, but has shown flashes this preseason that he could contribute and swipe some scores and yardage. Davis is going to get the bulk of the carries, especially around the goal line, so Foster's arrival might not be that big of a deal.

Prediction: Davis has a big year, Foster returns and doesn't take anything from his teammate. That is more of an Albert Connell thing.

WR/TE - If the offense in conservative, you can imagine the gaudy stats the wide receiving corps must be posting. These guys make Travis Taylor look like Fred Biletnikoff. Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith each picked up over 800 yards and three scores last year. The arrival of Ricky Proehl ensures that Muhammad and Smith will look faster with him around. The possession guy will give Delhomme another weapon that is dangerous enough to maybe break the skin. Wesley Walls was released, so a huge void was left at tight end with his departure. Kris Mangum might start and might even draw fantasy attention, from members of his own family.

Prediction: Better off taking a number three receiver on a good team than one of these gentlemen.

ST/D - John Kasay, when healthy, was a viable backup kicker. His injuries however have limited his play and he might not even make the roster this year. Shayne Graham filled in for the injured Kasay and went 19-for-26. The offense will not warrant enough opportunities and the defense is where the points are. Fox has molded these players in to a solid unit and is probably the number two defensive team in the game. Julius Peppers might battle Davis as the best fantasy player on the team. The rookie averaged a sack per game before getting the boot for testing positive for a controlled substance. He could have a huge year. At the other end, Mike Rucker quietly picked up 10 sacks. He might be a great sleeper pick late.

Prediction: More Panther defensive players will get picked than offensive players. Look for Peppers to be a monster this year and for the league to test him for monster drugs.