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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - NFC West
8/21/03

St. Louis

QB - Kurt Warner was colossal bust last year. I play in a two QB league and took him with the second overall pick. I haven't made such a poor choice since I wore that "No Fat Chicks" t-shirt to the Lillith Fair. He looks to bounce back this year and has looked very sharp thus far this preseason. He will be helped by the addition of Kyle Turley, which gives the Rams a solid line, which was something else they lacked last year. Warner looks like he might be back on track for another good year, but regardless how well you think he will do this year you cannot draft him without taking Marc Bulger as his backup. Warner has become injury prone, especially with his throwing hand, so Bulger is a necessity. It will also work out even if Warner bottoms out again. Bulger will be there to run the offense efficiently like he did last year, so you are covered either way.

Prediction: Warner will give praise to the Big Guy upstairs after each game and you will give thanks to Warner for filling up the stat sheet. Take Bulger late, I can't stress that enough.

RB - Marshall Faulk is one of the players being talked about as a potential number one pick. He is playing behind a terrific line that just got Orlando Pace back and added Turley. Faulk supposedly is in great shape and is ready to return to fantasy MVP form. Do I have doubts? Of course, I don't think Faulk has played a whole season in a while, and that has to be a glaring concern, like that small fire I'm watching catch next to that propane tank. But knowing that, I think he is as solid as a pick as anyone to explode for 20 touchdowns and 2,200 total yards. I think that is what separates him and Priest Holmes from the rest of the pack, that potential to blow up statistically. The problem is they also might blow up injury wise. I still like Faulk a lot. You should draft Lamar Gordon as his back up. Faulk will get hurt at some point and Gordon will be a nice back up.

Prediction: Faulk finishes as a top three back and Gordon serves as an admirable backup.

WR/TE - Sure Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt will get plenty of catches in this offense, but every year someone takes one of them too high and I snicker under my breath and get a WR with similar production six rounds later. Holt will get you plenty of yardage, in the 1,300 range, but he has never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season. Don't expect that to change this year. Ricky Proehl scored as many touchdowns, four, as Holt did last year. The offense is just too diversified for any one receiver to put up big numbers. What is worse is that Bruce is looking like he is on the downward slide, managing only 1,000 yards, but he did get seven scores last year. Tight end Cam Cleeland will hope to bounce back from the promise he showed with the Saints a few years ago. But he is too injury prone to contribute on a regular basis.

Prediction: If I had to choose one receiver from this group, it would be Holt, and that pick would be as satisfying as hot coffee after a marathon.

K/D - Jeff Wilkins has that Bret Saberhagen, good year/bad year thing going on. He is due for a good year, so I would pick him up late. He is undervalued after a poor season last year, but when he performs, he should be good for 115 points at least. End Leonard Little picked up 11 sacks last year and will benefit from a healthy Grant Winstrom. That isn't a lock to happen, but when healthy, Winstrom has a motor and puts up good numbers. Adam Archuleta gives some versatility from the safety spot. He had 2.5 sacks, and interception and a fumble recovery. If he can avoid getting his bell rung again, he will have a solid season.

Prediction: Wilkins bounces back to Pro bowl form, Little and Winstrom are solid but Archuleta is a risk and will miss some games.

Seattle

QB - Matt Hasselbeck had the big finish last year to get fantasy owners interested in what comes next. After a crummy start, he ended the season with 12 TD passes and a TD run in the final six games. The only thing that will perk fantasy owners up more is saying, "The nachos are done!" The question is whether he is the guy who was pretty crummy in the first half of the season or the star in the final six games. Put it together and you have your answer. He will have moments of good and bad, but he isn't ready to make the leap to superstardom. Yet. He does have good weapons in Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson and he plays in a QB-friendly system. So that is in his advantage, but I think he will have flashes and will put together a solid year.

Prediction: Twenty-five Td's and 3,600 yards with the potential for more.

RB - Can you complain when all your guy does is score TD's? Shaun Alexander has been a TD machine the past two years, scoring 34 times in that stretch. Those are sexy numbers, but to get greedy and want the nice personality to go with the sexy numbers, I would like more than the 1,200 rushing yards he averaged over the same amount of time. He is versatile as he racked up 400 receiving yards as well. That's nit-picking to want more yards, but that is all he is missing to solidify his spot in the top five. If Hasselbeck can perform, that will make Alexander's job all the easier.

Prediction: He finds a way to get the extra yards and takes his place in the top 5.

WR/TE - In an offense that is about to explode, Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson are the TNT. If the team can find receptions for both players, everyone will win statistically. Robinson also closed last year with a flurry, which coincided with Hasselbeck's takeoff. In his final six games, he scored four times and hit the century mark three times. He is long, fast and wants to be a player in this league. That is a good combination. Look for his stats, 1200-yards and five scores to rise, with him getting 10 scores. Jackson was poised last year to breakout, but his stats, 800 yards and 4 scores didn't show it. Look for him to return to where he was two years ago with 1000-yards and eight TD's. TE Jerramy Stevens is going to learn to get his act together off the field or he will be in jail or out of the league or probably both. He had another driving related accident and was sentenced to two days in prison. He is pushing his luck, which is a shame because he has a great deal of talent wasting away. Itula Mili had better stats last year and logically could out produce Stevens again this year.

Prediction: Robinson breaks out this season with Jackson adding solid numbers. Stevens is too much of a distraction as Mili gets the bulk of the decent stats.

K/D - Rookie Josh Brown could be walking into a sweet gig. He comes into a potent offense that is going to move the ball and give him opportunities to succeed. Look for him to be a surprise addition in the top 10 kickers this year.

Defensively, it's a good thing the offense is so good. The team has plenty of holes and question marks. The club offers little a team unit and should keep the offense on the field.

Prediction: Brown does well while the defense doesn't do so hot.

San Francisco

QB - After back-to back seasons that placed him in the top 5 QB's in the league, the only luck Jeff Garcia had last year was bad luck. Nothing seemed to work for him. His TD passes fell from 32 to 21 and the offense was clicking with the consistency of an empty Bic. Enter Dennis Erickson and the expectations rise at the thought of him turning this into a vertical offense. Fantasy owners also salivate at Garcia slinging it downfield, in hopes of seeing his numbers bounce back. That isn't a guarantee this year. The offense might be tweaked, but Erickson has said he doesn't want to open it up all the way. The other problem hinges on a vertical approach with a quarterback who made his name with accuracy not arm strength. A return to the 25+ touchdown club is very possible. That, teamed with his ability to scramble, an average of 4 rushing touchdowns a year over the past three years, will put Garcia back in the top 10.

Prediction: Garcia will see his passing numbers rise and his running stats will stay about the same.

RB - The clock is ticking on Garrison Hearst's career and Kevan Barlow keeps trying to move the hands forward. Hearst proved everyone wrong again last year by rushing for almost 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. He also picked up 300 receiving yards and one touchdown. Barlow wasn't bad, rushing for 675 yards and 4 scores, but wasn't a factor in the passing game. It seems like this drama has been played out each of the past few years. Things don't look to change drastically this year. Barlow is the future, but it seems the 49ers are living in the present. It looks as if Hearst will be phased out at some point, but it seems hard to gauge when and to what fantasy impact it will have.

Prediction: These two flip stats this year and I try to decide how you don't live in the present.

WR/TE - It should be an interesting season for Terrell Owens. Not like any campaign recently has resembled dull, but he enters a contract year and wants to solidify the fact he is one of the best receivers in the league. He will do everything in his power to put up the best numbers of his career, so look for him to overtake Marvin Harrison as the number one receiver this year. He does bring more baggage than a DC-10, but he can back it up, regardless of the foolish comments/actions he engages in during the course of each season. He puts up stats every single year, so you have to give him his due. Tai Streets is due for a breakout year with the departure of J.J. Stokes. He had 750 yards and 5 scores and he could absorb Stokes' 300 yards and one touchdown like so much Brawny. Tight end Eric Johnson broke his collarbone, so Jed Weaver will take his place. Weaver might have the perfect "Bonanza" name, but his stats will be anything but a bonanza.

Prediction: Massive year from Owens, improvement from Streets and no production from any of their tight ends.

K/D - Jeff Chandler takes over full time duty this year after starting the final six games after the release of Jose Cortez. Chandler wasn't very accurate, going 8-for-12, in the games he did kick, so he hasn't set the world on fire. He could have a good year if the offense gets going, but I find it hard to give him any support. This might be end Andre Carter's year. He racked up 12 sacks last year and forced three fumbles. LB Julian Petersen is versatile and will give you tackles, a few sacks and a punch in the nose if you make fun of his name. He also is in a contract year, so watch for him.

Prediction: Chandler doesn't do much, neither does the team unit, but Carter and Peterson are worth a pick.

Arizona

QB - When you take a step down from Jake Plummer, what is the actual size of the step? Jeff Blake will man the QB duties this season and nobody is really expecting much from him. He is a stopgap solution in the bathtub plug sense of the term. He is just there until they want to change the water, then they will yank him and move on. He wasn't bad last year, throwing 13 scores in 10 games, but that puts him on pace for Plummer type numbers. But he receiving group is less than spectacular and the running game is shaky. I have a hunch they will be looking for a QB early in the next two drafts. They want to take a look at backup Josh McCown to see what he can do. Following form, when the team is mathematically eliminated in December, he might get some time under center.

Prediction: Ho-hum numbers from Blake and the chance he will get pulled as the season progresses. Might be a bad year to be Jeff Blake.

RB - Marcel Shipp was poised to have his breakout season this year. He ran for 800 yards and caught 400 yards worth of balls and combined for nine touchdowns. The team traded bust Thomas Jones to Tampa Bay, all but clearing his path to the starting job. So what does the team do in the off-season? It signs on the decline Emmitt Smith and coach Dave McGinnis says Smith will start. That why this franchise has a sense of direction similar to an inner tube in a tsunami. The Cardinals have a good line, but Smith will be lucky to get to 900 yards. Shipp will play on third downs and will have to sit on the sideline and count the days until he is a free agent.

Prediction: An ugly situation could be developing in Arizona, the only thing uglier are the projected stats.

WR/TE - The team watched David Boston skip town as well as Frank Sanders and MarTay Jenkins. That doesn't leave much behind for Blake to throw to. Tight end Freddie Jones might be the best option. He had 350 yards and one score last year and he will see his workload increase. First round pick Bryant Johnson will be eased into the system, but drafting rookie receivers and hoping for production has a track record as bountiful as Tom Joad's garden.

Prediction: This might be a good year to steer clear of the Cardinals altogether.

K/D - Bill Gramatica is going to have a hard time scoring points this year with a weak offense. He has scored 74 and 73 points the last two years and they don't look like a team on the verge of breaking out of its offensive malaise. I haven't seen a group is such a deep funk since Bootsy Collins joined Parliament Funkadelic. Tackle Wendell Bryant might be able to make some plays from the inside, after being hindered after his holdout last year. The team unit is shaky at best.

Prediction: The team is up for the down stroke. But I don't see anyone getting up on anyone's draft board.