7/24/06
I’ve written in the past about how my friends who work in
the worlds of finance and the stock market love the lessons on valuation
that fantasy football teaches. The kinds of light bulbs that go
off over the heads of fantasy players are useful for understanding
some fairly important macroeconomic and microeconomic principles.
I think the first such light bulb that goes off for most fantasy
participants is that even though winners claim their victories by
earning more points than their opponents, it is unforgivably reductive
to assume that the player who earns the most fantasy points in a
season is the most valuable player in the league.
I know this is painfully obvious to experienced FFers. Most of us
feel something close to certain that Peyton Manning will earn more
fantasy points than Larry Johnson this year, but we also know that
there are far more Tom Bradys, Carson Palmers, Matt Hasselbecks,
and Donovan McNabbs breathing down Manning’s neck than there
are LaDainian Tomlinsons and Shaun Alexanders to challenge Johnson.
If you were to travel back in time from January of 2007 to tell
me that Manning will outscore Johnson in the 2006 season, that wouldn’t
have any impact on my preference for Johnson. Fantasy football isn’t,
in the final analysis, about projecting points for players. It’s
about finding gaps and disparities within and between certain positions,
understanding the laws of supply and demand, and exploiting those
gaps and disparities as advantageously as our positions in drafts
or the funds available to us in an auction will allow.
With this fundamental lesson of fantasy football in mind, I think
we’re in a position to appreciate a problem presented by kickers.
There are still a few elite kickers, to be sure. But the tier below
the elite is so flooded with talent as to make the use of kickers
statistically problematic for most 12- to 14-team leagues.
According to one preseason publication (Fantasy Football Index):
The kicker position in fantasy leagues would be more interesting
if teams were required to start two each week. As things stand
now (at least in most leagues), too many good kickers go undrafted,
and are easily available on waiver wires. . . . Kickers today
are better than they’ve ever been. They collectively converted
a record 81 percent of their field goals last year, and they averaged
107 points—No. 2 all-time. In fantasy leagues, maybe the
best way to counter this growing supply is to alter the demand.
Either require teams to start two kickers, or perhaps eliminate
waiver moves at this position, meaning that fantasy teams would
be stuck for the entire season with the players they selected
on draft night. Without some kind of rules change there’s
little incentive to make selecting a kicker a priority. (2006
Draft Guide, p. 134)
If you want to take issue with the premise of this argument,
I’ll be happy to consider posting your critique in next
month’s column. Of course, you don’t have to be very
bold to challenge the assertions of the Index these days,
since the staff is still trying to live down last year’s
“Tatum Bell is the key to your draft” claim. Nevertheless,
I’ve encountered this sort of logic from several sources,
and I think it’s fairly compelling.
The first objection I would expect to hear in fantasy football
circles would take the final sentence of the above quotation to
task: “Without some kind of rules change there’s little
incentive to make selecting a kicker a priority.” I can
hear readers all over the country muttering their responses impatiently
to themselves, “So what? Kickers always have been an afterthought
in our league, and our league works fine. If we consistently revised
the rules of the league to take statistical deviations in the
NFL into account, then no one could keep up with the rules. Besides,
you have to do something in those final rounds, so why not dedicate
them to kickers?”
As I’ve written before, I am largely sympathetic to arguments
such as this one. As long as everyone in the league is playing
by the same rules, I don’t see any reason to get hung up
on the details of scoring and drafting. Games are sets of arbitrary
conventions, and one of the most widely observed conventions in
fantasy football is to pay little attention to kickers on draft
day. So if your response to the quoted passage above is to shrug
your shoulders and say, “We’ve got a fine thing going.
Why mess it up with special rules for kickers?”, I can’t
fault you.
However, I’m also sympathetic to attempts to introduce as
much strategy as possible into the game of fantasy football. And
I know from personal experience that there is something to the
Index’s argument. In one league, I went through
8 kickers last season—not because they were bad, but because
they were all roughly as good as each other. I dumped one for
another on the basis of upcoming matchups against poor defenses.
It was easy and fun and effective for me, but if I were to take
a step back from the league and look at things objectively, I
would have to concede that it was imbalanced. Because I got off
to a very strong start and felt assured of a playoff appearance
very early in the season, I had the incentive to keep spending
transaction fees on kickers week after week. My opponents who
got off to slow starts didn’t have that same incentive,
so they stuck with whichever kickers they had on hand from the
draft (often despite extremely unfavorable matchups).
Another disparity created by the depth of kicker talent concerned
one of the trickiest things to handle in this league, which is
a roster limited to just 14 players. Such a small roster makes
it difficult to keep much talent on your bench. It’s particularly
difficult to play defense with personnel against other teams in
the league by depriving them of whichever player they might be
most interested in. For the sake of illustration, let’s
say that I have 3 healthy running backs and can only start 2.
I notice that my upcoming opponent has 3 running backs on his
roster as well, but one was just injured, another is on a bye,
and the third will be sharing time in a RBBC situation. If I had
the space on my roster, I would love nothing better than to nab
one or two of the hottest RB prospects on the waiver wire—not
so much to use them myself as to make my opponent’s pool
of talent even shallower than it already is. But it’s difficult
to do that with so little roster space . . . unless I’m
willing to go without a kicker until the minute before the game
starts. That’s right, talented kickers were so plentiful
last year that it was often beneficial for me to cut my only kicker
simply to make room for whatever players I wanted to keep my opponent
from getting. Then, in the seconds before kickoff, I would cut
the player that I never wanted in the first place and go to the
waiver wire for the kicker with the most favorable matchup. I
was never disappointed—and usually delighted—by the
choices available.
Based on that experience, I’m going to agree with the Index.
Talented kickers are so plentiful as to make our traditional handling
of the position a source of imbalance in most leagues. But what
are we supposed to do about it?
Option 1: Okay, so it’s
an imbalance. But since exploiting imbalances is what fantasy
football is about, embrace it.
Option 2: The first solution
proposed by the Index is to force all teams to play 2 kickers
every week. This would certainly bring out the distinction between
the many good kickers and the few duds in the NFL. Each week,
a 14-team league would have to start 28 kickers. With 4 teams
on byes, that would mean every kicker would accounted for. There
might not be much difference between the production of the 5th
kicker and the 15th, but there would be a heck of a difference
between the 5th and the 25th. One problem with this arrangement
is that in leagues that pride themselves on small roster sizes,
tying up 2 spots with kickers for the entire season would leave
most owners bitter. I suspect there are some other problems as
well.
Option 3: The second solution
proposed by the Index is to force all teams to keep the
kickers they draft for the entire season. But what sort of exceptions
would be made for injury? In 2004, we saw a spate of kickers lost
for the better part of the season. If your owners are forbidden
from acquiring kickers during the season, do you simply say “Tough
luck” to those who lose one or conceivably two kickers to
injury? I could understand requiring players to select two kickers
during the draft and making no special provisions for them if
they lose one kicker (since injuries are part of the game), but
if a team lost both kickers, would it have to go for the rest
of the season without a kicker, or do you turn the bad luck into
good luck by letting the plagued owner pick up the surprise kicker
that has taken the NFL by storm and that the other owners are
forbidden from acquiring simply because their own kickers stayed
healthy?
Option 4: Here I’ll solicit
readers for modifications that they might propose to options 2
& 3.
Option 5: Here I’ll invite
readers to suggest entirely different solutions to the problem
of kicker supply far exceeding kicker demand.
Option 6: Here I’ll remind
readers that they are welcome to dispute the premise of the argument.
(You might want to contend that there’s a glut of TE talent
all of a sudden and that no one is proposing that we alter the
way TEs are used. That’s a difficult case to prove, since
I simply haven’t seen serviceable TEs languishing on the
waiver wire to the extent that I have seen serviceable kickers
there. But maybe you have a different, better argument.)
I’ll report back with my findings in August.
For responses to this fantasy question please email
Mike Davis. Readers who want to have their fantasy questions
answered live, on the air, by Mike Davis are invited to tune into
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