Week 4
9/25/08
Our tribute to Matthew Schiff (FFToday’s freshly retired Last
Man Standing guru) continues this week. The eight participants who
remain in the contest to replace Schiff are (in alphabetical order):
Michael Bode, Anthony Catalano, Spencer Coffey, Jeff DuBransky,
Walt Kindelberger, Doug Lecorchick, Marc Mondry, and Scott Morrison.
LMS picks for the Week 4 games from all eight participants appear
at the bottom of this column. Readers who care only about the
picks themselves should scroll down to the final section of the
column, but those who are interested in the men behind the picks
will want to see how our contestants responded to the “Spotlight
Questionnaire” I submitted to them earlier this week.
This week’s column features the responses of our first
four contestants (Bode, Catalano, Coffey, and DuBransky) to the
questionnaire. Next week’s column will feature the responses
of the remaining participants (Kindelberger, Lecorchick, Mondry,
and Morrison).
Question #1: Who the heck are you, and what
experience/qualifications do you have to suggest that readers
should pay any attention to you anyway?
Spotlight on Michael Bode:
First off, I am a lifelong fan of the Cleveland
Browns, so there should be no doubt that I truly love football
to have endured the past 28 years with this franchise and still
be as obsessed as I am with football. In fact, the sad state of
the Cleveland franchise the past 10 years has led me to spend
most of my time trying to figure out what is wrong with the team.
This careful studying has also led me to a greater understanding
of the game than fans who just enjoy a win. Also, I am a computer
design engineer, and my life revolves around the methodical analysis
of strengths and weaknesses of a system. This work directly applies
to picking football games because it greatly increasing your odds
for being able to pick a winner if you can analyze the strategic
advantages of each team.
Spotlight on Anthony Catalano:
I can't really say I have any experience as to
why readers should pay attention to me except I love football.
I have the Direct TV NFL package, so I get to watch as many games
as possible. I don't just concentrate on one team; I like to see
how all the teams are performing. I am also an avid fantasy football
player, so not am I only concentrating on the players I have but
I like to see how that particular team is doing. I am constantly
checking on updates on players and team injures (mostly though
the FF Today website) as they may affect my picks.
Spotlight on Spencer Coffey:
For several years I had a service business that
required working on Sundays. Seeing very few games live meant
that ESPN’s “Prime Time Tommy” became my primary
source of game action. Mondays involved more than a casual look
at all the box scores. These game recaps were, for the most part,
unfiltered and without commentary or deep theory as to any game’s
outcome, just the actual results.
Although I’m now watching all the games
I want, the box score review is still part of my weekly ritual.
Like an analyst who studies and reports on a specific industry,
I like to look at the NFL as an industry (and it is) with each
team providing a balance sheet on a weekly basis. Those balance
sheets should always be a starting point when making an assessment
of next week’s winners.
Spotlight on Jeff DuBransky:
We have an Eight-is-Great Pool at work in which
you have to pick eight teams to win each week. If you lose one
game, you're done. Needless to say, it's tough—and the money
carries over pretty often. I'm in the running most weeks, and
a couple years ago, I won three times and took home almost $2300
(which translated into new carpet for my house and a Playstation
for my enjoyment). After the third win, I told the guys that I'd
make it easier on them by just setting up direct deposit and eliminating
the middle man. They were not amused.
Question #2: Matthew Schiff and Mike Krueger
will be the judges of this contest. You may address them both
in this space as sycophantically as you like. Alternatively, you
can take the high road by reviewing the Week 3 column and explaining
which of your competitors seems to you to be the strongest candidate.
Spotlight on Michael Bode:
Since both Matthew Schiff and Mike Krueger are
truly noble football people who undoubtedly take more satisfaction
and pleasure in reading football analysis than sycophantic rants,
I will take the high road.
As far as my opponents, I am sure that they are all well-mannered
men of grace who enjoy rich lives filled with enjoyment of all
that befalls them. However, none of that makes them the hardened
unbiased judge required to even approach the standards set by
Mr. Schiff.
Spotlight on Anthony Catalano:
I would have to say my strongest competitor is Walt Kindelberger.
He is the only one in the week 3 column who had all 3 picks correct.
So as the saying goes, “To be the man, you have to beat
the man,” and right now Kindelberger is the man—with
the rest of us playing catch up.I would like to say thank you
to Mr. Krueger for providing an up-to-date website with accurate
information as I have been using FFToday since I starting playing
fantasy football about 10 years ago. I think I owe some thanks
to FFToday for helping me prepare for my drafts, setting my lineups
and winning several championships over the years.Mr. Schiff I
would read your picks and use your suggestions as a guideline
for my LMS pool that I participate in, so I would like to thank
you for helping me out with your insights.
Spotlight on Spencer Coffey:
I don’t have a long reply to this question. [The LMS section
of the column consists of] four paragraphs of commentary that
should leave the reader feeling informed and not disappointed
in spending the five minutes to read it.
Spotlight on Jeff DuBransky
Walt Kindleberger had a big game tryout—like Daunte Culpepper
must wish he could have had at any of the team facilities he visited.
Walt had a perfect week; he correctly recommended avoiding the
Patriots—and had good reasoning for doing so. His use of
the word "bevy" caught me a little off guard, but that
wasn't near enough to keep him from the top spot this week.
Question 3: The two strategy points that Mike
Davis stresses in the LMS portion of the column are 1) to avoid
divisional matchups; and 2) to concentrate on favorites playing
at home. Do you buy into those guidelines, or are they misleading
oversimplifications?
Spotlight on Michael Bode:
The first point of avoiding divisional matchups is based on the
solid reasoning that teams and coaches that play in the same division
will be able to gameplan better for their opponent, making the
games more unpredictable. However, by completely dismissing these
games from consideration, one would be passing up on teams with
glaring mismatches. For instance, it is unfortunately not a coincidence
that Pittsburgh has beaten the Browns 10 consecutive times. In
fact, Mike Davis himself often ignores this point and takes the
divisional matchup when he sees fit.
The second point is a good indicator as long as it is used properly.
One must start off by only considering home teams favored by more
than 3 points. Then, analyze which of these teams have the best
strategic advantages over their opponents. If a home team is a
favorite and has a glaring strategic advantage over the opponent,
you have a great candidate for a pick.
Spotlight on Anthony Catalano:
I definitely buy into the strategy of picking non-division matchups
as well as favorites at home in most cases. This week, for example,
we have 6 teams on byes—which leaves 13 games to pick from,
and 7 of those are division match-ups. I am leaning towards taking
3 division matchups this week because I don't feel confident in
any of the non-division matchups.
Spotlight on Spencer Coffey:
Avoiding division games and picking home favorites should not
be a hard-and-fast rule when picking games. Out of the thirteen
games this weekend, six are divisional games. Take those out,
and you are down to three teams listed as home favorites New Orleans,
Tampa Bay and Tennessee. New Orleans and Tennessee will be facing
teams that won the previous week. Looking ahead, Tennessee plays
the NY Jets on November 23, which is probably a better time to
focus on the Titans.
Spotlight on Jeff DuBransky
The philosophy of avoiding divisional matchups because of familiarity
isn't one I follow. Leaving divisional games alone on principle
leaves out great options like Broncos/ Chiefs, Chargers/ Chiefs,
and even Raiders/ Chiefs. This week, two of my picks are divisional
matchups, and either Mike or myself will soon be proven right.
I also think that the unfamiliarity of the non-divisional opponents
leaves as much if not more unpredictability because the teams
have so little knowledge of each other.
As far as favorites at home, I use this strategy much more frequently.
I don’t know if it's the comfortable bed, the short drive
home, or the home-cooked meals, but teams sure do like being at
home, and I sure like choosing them. As long as you can avoid
the complacency factor that sometimes comes into play (really
good versus really bad, uncommon storylines or variables on either
side, or teams on a long winning streak or playing), home favorites
are definitely a good bet.
Question #4: Is there another strategy point
(aside from the divisional matchups/home-field advantage points
discussed above) that you would want to stress in your LMS projections?
Spotlight on Michael Bode:
Strategic advantages need to be understood and used to your advantage.
For example, if Pittsburgh is letting Ben Roethlisberger get sacked
and pressured by teams like Houston and Cleveland that do not
generate a good pass rush, then it is a good indicator that the
Steelers are in trouble when they face sack-happy Philadelphia
. The key is balancing this strategic advantage with the other
factors in the game. Using the same example of Philadelphia vs.
Pittsburgh (in hindsight no less), it would be important to then
decide if this strategic advantage is enough to compensate for
Pittsburgh’s formidable defense, which was too close of
a call for me to have chosen this game.
Spotlight on Anthony Catalano:
The other thing I would stress is I like to try and avoid teams
that are traveling across the country. There are many games in
which good teams have traveled a long distance and lost to bad
teams, so I try and stay away from those matchups as well. I also
like to look at injuries and weather. When I know a team is missing
a good player or players, I will try to avoid picking that team
even if it is very good. For example, a lot people liked Seattle
a couple weeks ago against San Francisco, but I would have stayed
away from that game because Hasselbeck was struggling with a back
injury in addition to missing missing his top 3 receivers. Weather
is a little harder to deal with due to deadlines, but if you know
in advance that a game is going to be affected by severe weather
conditions, you should try to steer clear of that contest.
Spotlight on Spencer Coffey:
As noted above, I’m no different from most in realizing
that you must not ignore the basic tenets of what gives one team
an edge over another. For me, injuries to or the depth of a specific
team cannot be ignored. Injuries also go to a team’s psyche.
Don’t just look at a team’s performance the first
week they lose a playmaker; follow their games and see how they
make adjustments as the season progresses. As an example, Green
Bay primarily works in man-to-man coverage on defense. How will
they adjust or change strategy now that CB Al Harris is out for
the season?
Spotlight on Jeff DuBransky:
Aside from what I mentioned above, I have only one unbreakable
rule:I will never pick the Vikings to win ever again. It seems
like yesterday, but it was actually Week 9 of 1998 when the 7-0
Vikings (en route to their 15-1 season) went into 3-4 Tampa on
Monday night to face a Buccaneer team they had already beaten
handily earlier in the year. I had already won seven of my eight
games (in the Eight-is-Great pool mentioned above), and all the
Vikings had to do was beat the Bucs for me to win a six-week carryover
of almost $1100. Needless to say, they lost (27-24), and the big
payout went back into the pot and was won the next week by another
guy. It’s not like it still haunts me or anything ten years
later.
Question #5: Pick your soapbox. Get up on the
soapbox of your choosing (as long as it relates to football in
some way), and give us an insightful or entertaining taste of
your writing style and reasoning process.
Spotlight on Michael Bode:
Football is a sport that is built around energy and aggression.
However, many coaches are passive in their play-calling, which
can compromise the aggression from their players. The most obvious
passive coaching calls are punting the ball in the opponent’s
territory, kicking a field goal when a touchdown is needed to
tie or win late in a game, or setting up a play for an easier
field goal on a 3rd-and-long play deep in the opponent’s
territory. However, there are many other passive calls that happen
throughout the game that are often overlooked.
One type of passiveness that is often lauded by announcers and
accepted by fans is purposely running out the clock to end the
first half. The benefits of running out the clock are claimed
to be so that the other team does not have a chance at gaining
momentum by creating a turnover and possibly scoring themselves.
The practice has become so accepted that even teams trailing will
run out the clock so that they can get into the locker room and
make halftime adjustments. However, football coaches claim to
not want to leave points on the field, and that is exactly what
they are doing when they send their team into the locker room
instead of aggressively attempting to score before the half. If
a team has a slight lead, then the team should try to extend that
lead. If a team is trailing, then the team should be fighting
for any points they can get to cut the deficit. Plus, a coach
should show confidence in his team’s ability to score as
this confidence will carry over to his players. Therefore, we
need to end the needless passive running out of the clock at the
end of the first half.
Spotlight on Anthony Catalano:
Every Monday morning I am already looking at the matchups for
the following week. I narrow my possible selections down to about
5 or 6 games that I like. By the end of the day Monday I will
have already picked at least 2 of my games. On Tuesday I will
pick the last team that I like out of the group. When I am writing
my picks I look at what I believe each team can do well and what
they won't be able to do well. When I start writing about the
picks, things will pop up in my head about those teams, and I
will just add those details in the hope that I am providing enough
information for the readers to pick their team or teams in their
LMS pool.
Spotlight on Spencer Coffey:
My writing style can be described as “just the facts ma’am.”
The great columnist Chuck Klosterman recently noted that most
of the information we receive is “manufactured filler”.
He says that actual events have become meaningless as compared
to the endless assessment of the events—sports and politics
being the primary examples of this phenomenon.
We have more information available to us on more aspects of the
game than at any time in NFL history, yet picking a winning team
from week to week is no easier than it was thirty years ago. How
many LMS participants went with Chicago over Indy or Miami over
New England? Of course those are extreme examples. The hard part
is to look out for those extremes so that when upsets do happen
you’re still standing. I could add something about more
beef and less filler, but I think all five answers cover what
I believe and what I think I can convey in my LMS picks.
Spotlight on Jeff DuBransky:
Sports radio DJs who are lame and get to talk a lot annoy me.
Colin Cowherd of ESPN radio is practically worshipped where I
work. I just don’t get it. He usually has only two or three
actual opinions each show and simply repeats each one in about
four or five different phrasings (listen next time… you'll
never hear him the same way again, I promise). Sometimes I'll
actually yell at the radio before hitting the button to change
the station. I think what I'm most annoyed about is the fact that
he's hit on such a gold mine. Because of his "strategy,"
Colin only has to come up with about 1/3 of a show while his co-workers
must actually fill a full time slot. Pure genius.
Stay tuned next week as we shine the spotlight on our other four
contestants. In the meantime, however, take what you can from
the projections of all eight contestants concerning the Week 4
games.
Michael Bode's Picks:
Trap Game: San Francisco over New Orleans
New Orleans lost both Jeremy Shockey and David Patten from their
passing game after losing Colston earlier this season. While Drew
Brees is very good at using any wide receiver available, these
losses will impact the Saints’ passing game as the 49ers
will be able to focus more of their defensive gameplan on stopping
Reggie Bush. The 49ers already have a formidable defense against
the pass (allowing just 160 yards per game and an NFL 3rd-best
5.5 yards per pass attempt). The Saints will also have difficulties
against the Mike Martz offense as they rank 29th in both pass
defense and rushing yards per carry (5.3 yards per carry).
Eagles over Chicago – (Past Pick:
minnesota)
The Chicago rush defense is only allowing 3.4 yards per carry,
and Westbrook may not be available for this game. However, I still
feel completely confident that the Eagles will be able to handle
the Bears in Chicago. The Chicago offense has used Matt Forte
as the catalyst for everything they do. But, he will have to go
against an unyielding Philadelphia defense this week that is only
allowing 2.4 yards per carry and 45.7 rushing yards per game despite
facing Marion Barber and Willie Parker. In addition, Kyle Orton
will have to face a relentless pass rush. On offense, the way
to beat Chicago is through the air as they are yielding 249 yards
per game (28th in the NFL). Not only is passing the Eagles specialty,
but Chicago was unable to manage a single sack last week against
a Tampa Bay team that threw the ball on 29 consecutive snaps.
Giving McNabb time in the pocket is virtually guaranteeing an
Eagle victory.
Jacksonville over Houston – (Past
pick: BUFFALO)
The Texans football team looked lost before Hurricane Ike hit
the area, and now the players are dealing with the 2nd straight
week of their families not having electricity. Even without those
off the field worries, the Texans would have their hands full
with a Jaguar team that finally remembered their rush-first identity
against the Colts. While Houston seemingly has been good against
the pass, it is mostly because Pittsburgh and Tennessee both built
big leads by running the ball. Expect Jacksonville to have a similar
gameplan this week. Houston ’s offense has not been capable
of sustaining run or pass against two stout defenses and, even
though the Jaguars defense is not as good as it has been the past
couple of seasons, the Texans should continue to struggle to move
the ball this week.
Denver over Kansas City (Past pick:
NYG)
The only chance the Chiefs have of keeping this game close would
be to keep Jay Cutler off the field by controlling the ball on
offense. However, the team that beats the Broncos will beat them
through the air as they are last in the NFL in pass defense. That
team will not be the Chiefs—as Tyler Thigpen looked completely
lost in his first NFL start. The Chiefs’ pass defense has
been respectable in the opening weeks, but they have not faced
an offense with anywhere near the firepower of the Broncos. This
also might be the game that the Bronco running game makes an impact
as the Chiefs are giving up 5.5 yards per rushing attempt, which
is 3rd worst in the NFL.
Anthony Catalano’s Picks
Trap Game: Atlanta over Carolina
If Atlanta can get Michael Turner going again, he could be in
for another good day. Carolina is giving up over 100 yards rushing
so far. Carolina is struggling on offense especially in the passing
game. They couldn't get anything going against Minnesota’s
suspect pass defense last week—even with Steve Smith back.
If Atlanta can control the clock and the line of scrimmage, I
can see this as an upset.
#3: Denver over Kansas City (past
picks: new england)
I believe Denver will have its way with Kansas City. Jay Cutler
and Brandon Marshall are unstoppable right now. If the passing
game is working, the running game will open up as well. Kansas
City will not be able to keep up with the scoring. Other than
Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have no real threat.
It looks like Damon Huard will be back at QB, but it shouldn't
matter as Denver should be able to put up plenty of points once
again.
#2: San Diego over Oakland (past picks:
BUFFALO)
San Diego should win this in a rout. After watching Monday night's
game they looked very impressive and they could easily be 3-0
instead of 1-2. LT looked pretty healthy this week and I expect
a big came from him. Phillip Rivers is finally emerging as a top
quarterback in this league and he should be able to find Chambers
(4 tds in 3 games) as well as Gates for big scores this week.
Oakland is a mess all kind of rumors Kiffin is going to be fired.
Jamarcus Russell has not been that good and don't see him doing
much this week.
#1: Dallas over Washington (past picks:
NYG)
Marion Barber is hot, and I expect his success to continue this
week, particularly with Felix Jones getting better every week
to complement him. I see Dallas running the ball more this week,
and if the Redskins can't stop the run they will be forced to
commit a safety to rush defense, which will open things up for
Romo, T.O., and Jason Witten. The Redskins will have to find Santana
Moss who has a TD in each of the first 3 games, and Portis will
have to find some holes to keep up with Dallas, but in the end
the Cowboys will find themselves 4-0.
Spencer Coffey’s Picks:
Trap Game: Arizona over New York Jets
The Jets come off a Monday night game in San Diego to face a Cardinal
team that stayed on the East Coast this week. The Cardinals are
3-7 in their last ten road games, but six of those seven losses
have been by a touchdown or less.
#3: Tampa Bay over Green Bay (Past
Pick: DENVER)
It may take the Packers' defense a few games to adjust to the
season-ending loss of Al Harris. Jon Gruden's switch to Brian
Griese has worked well. Griese led two late
scoring drives to tie Chicago in regulation and connected with
Antonio Bryant on a 38-yard pass to set up the winning field goal
in OT.
#2: Buffalo over St. Louis (Past Pick:
kansas city)
I picked a team with 11 straight losses in this spot last week.
I may have underestimated Atlanta, but is it possible to underestimate
the Rams? The quarterback position seems to be the least of the
Rams' problems, but this week they turn to Trent Green whose last
start
was over a year ago.
#1 Carolina over Atlanta (Past Pick:
SF)
Despite the return of Steve Smith, I see the Panthers having a
big day running the ball. The Falcons’ run defense ranks
23rd—and that includes two home games in which they had
3+TD leads very early.
Jeff DuBransky’s Picks
Trap Game: Houston over Jacksonville
This game has all the symptoms of a classic case of the overlookings.
The Jaguars are home after a huge win (correctly predicted right
here last week as a trap game, by the way). After Week 4, they
face the Steelers and then the Broncos before their bye, so the
Texans are merely a road bump. Even so, the Texans still have
weapons, and they've got nothing to lose against a Jacksonville
team that's still hurting pretty badly.
#3: Buffalo over St. Louis (Past Pick:
ATLANTA)
For the Rams, Week 4 is simply 7 days in between Week 3 and a
very tantalizing bye week during which they can forget about the
following facts: 1) they have lost three games by an average of
29 points; 2) Trent Green can't play defense; 3) they've given
up 11 sacks; and 4) they've scored only two touchdowns. As for
the Bills, they're too young to know this is the perfect spot
to overlook an opponent. However, they do know that with Arizona
next week, a 5-0 record heading into the break is very realistic,
and they won't let the chance slip away this week.
#2: Dallas over Washington (Past pick:
Carolina)
Jason Campbell has turned it around the past two weeks …
at home against New Orleans and Arizona. Welcome back to the world
of Big League defense on the road. The Cowboys got a scare from
the Packers while T.O. got no love, so those two things combined
should be more than enough to keep them from getting complacent.
And there's no way the Redskins can exchange offensive blows with
Dallas like the Eagles did two weeks ago.
#1: Denver over Kansas City (Past Pick:
NYG)
The mantra for 2008 may well be "the opponent of the Chiefs
is an excellent pick in LMS pools.” The Broncos may drop
50 or 60 on the Chiefs this week, since their sorry defense allows
them to pull a Belichek without criticism. The only fear you should
have is if you've got a Denver homer in your fantasy league like
we have in ours. He left the draft with seven Broncos on his team
out of 21 players, but who's laughing now?
Walt Kindelberger’s Picks:
This is a very tough week for LMS/Eliminator players. The combination
of a lot of division games along with plenty of byes really narrows
the slate. I thought Week #3 offered many attractive picks, but
Week #4 looks like a wasteland where good picks go to die.
Trap Game: Houston over Jacksonville
Everyone is back on the Jags’ bandwagon after their win
in Indy. I am still skeptical. Their offensive line is still ravaged
by injury, and the Colts team they beat is not yet playing like
themselves. The loss of Bob Sanders leaves a huge gap in that
defense. Houston also has the "hunger factor" in their
favor. The Texans need a win here; Matt Schaub desperately needs
a win here. Look for either the upset or at least a very competitive
game.
#3: Dallas over Washington (past pick:
ATLANTA)
I liked San Diego over Oakland in this spot as well, but Dallas
is at home so I will go with them. Washington certainly has improved
since getting beat up physically in week #1 by the Giants, but
I still don't think they are ready to go into Dallas and steal
this one. Dallas has a comeuppance game coming their way soon.
They are starting to feel brash and overconfident, but I still
like them to take care of business here. The current spread on
this match-up feels too big though.
#2: Cincinnati over Cleveland (past
pick: BUFFALO)
Someone has to win this one, and Cincinnati is at home and showed
considerably more spunk last week than Cleveland did. There are
rumblings that Brady Quinn may replace Derek Anderson this week
at QB for Cleveland. If he does, I will feel even more confident
in this pick. Before last week's game, I thought Cincy had quit
on Marvin Lewis, but clearly they haven't, and what's more I am
sensing an "us against the world" attitude starting
to develop for them. Cleveland is a team that simply looks shell-shocked
at this point and the road is generally not the place to regroup.
#1: Denver over Kansas City (past pick:
NYG)
I know Denver is on the road in a divisional matchup, but honestly
I think I may take the University of Colorado against Kansas City
right now. I haven't seen anything from the Chiefs to make me
believe they have a chance in this one. Kansas City is short on
talent, short on experience, and short on any real hope of being
competitive this year, which makes for an ugly combination. Tony
Gonzalez has to be as unhappy as a Seattle sports fan right now.
Doug Lecorchick’s Picks
Trap Game: Cleveland over Cincinnati
The Brownies may open up the passing attack with Brady Quinn.
I am always hesitant to pick any team that is going up against
a fresh QB. Even though Cincy played the Giants tough last week,
I think this game will be decided by a field goal either way.
Flip a coin.
#3: New Orleans over San Francisco
(Past Pick: TENNESSEE)
The 49ers are playing adequately right now, and Frank Gore will
probably throw up fantastic stats in this game. Even so, the Saints’
passing attack (yeah, even without Shockey) will be way too much
for the 49er defense. I see the Saints putting points on the board
80% of the time, which easily means victory.
#2: San Diego over Oakland (Past Pick:
cleveland)
The chargers will probably rest LT after the first half. By then
the score should be 31-6 or something along those lines. Darren
Sproles and the Chargers should have some fun again the Raider
defense. This contest has all the makings of a huge blow out.
The only hope for the Raiders will be if they can get a whole
lot of turnovers in Charger territory and capitalize on each possession.
I don’t see that happening.
#1: Denver over Kansas City (Past
Pick: DALLAS)
This is another blow-out prospect. The Broncos should establish
an early lead and put the rock in the hands of Young and Hall
for the rest of the contest. Even though this could be one of
Denver’s lower-scoring games this year, the Broncos should
be on top the whole way.
Marc Mondry’s Picks
Trap Game: Baltimore over Pittsburgh
The Raven defense looks just as dominating as it did back in 2001
when Baltimore won it all—well, almost. Admittedly, they
haven’t really been tested yet, holding the frail offenses
of Cincinnati and Cleveland to 10 points each, but do you really
expect Pittsburgh, sans Willie Parker and with a banged up Big
Ben to be effective? Just think about fumble machine Rashard Mendenhall
toting the ball all game. Aside from a rout of Houston in Week
1, the Pittsburgh offense has looked sad. Philadelphia absolutely
tore them up last week, and they gained only 281 total yards against
the lowly Browns. Ouch. Even Baltimore, with rookie QB Joe Flacco
at the helm, put up 28 points on Cleveland. I am puzzled as to
how the Steelers are 7.5 point favorites, even at home.
3. Jacksonville over Houston (Past
Pick: SEATTLE)
Behind a decimated offensive line, the Jacksonville RBs had an
absolute field day against the Colts (without Bob Sanders) last
Sunday, gaining an astounding 296 yards from scrimmage. The Texans
are allowing even more fantasy points per game to opposing RBs
than Indy. The phrase I used when predicting the Titans’
win last week was “track meet”. This week, it might
be a marathon. The Texans have one bright spot: rookie Steve Slaton.
And what does the Jaguar defense do best? – Stop the run.
The Texans will have to try to beat Jacksonville through the air,
but Matt Schaub has been awful, and may soon even be replaced
by the perhaps slightly less awful Sage Rosenfels.
2. Dallas over Washington (Past Pick:
TENNESSEE)
Dallas is unstoppable. The Cowboys have too many weapons for calm,
cool, and collected Tony Romo to work with. How can you possibly
cover Marion Barber, Jason Witten, and Terrell Owens? These four
skill players are all stars at their respective positions, piling
up 1300 total yards on offense through 3 games, two of which were
played against the very capable defenses of Philadelphia and Green
Bay. Washington has looked decent, with Jason Campbell showing
signs of maturity and the defense effectively containing the high-powered
offenses of the Giants, the Saints, and Cardinals. That being
said, the Cowboys would mop the floor with those teams, probably
even my beloved G-Men. The Skins are simply outclassed in this
matchup, and in Dallas, they have little chance of even staying
competitive.
1. Denver over Kansas City (Past Pick:
BUFFALO)
The NFL’s highest scoring offense now gets to face the team
that allowed an average of 24 points per game against the Patriots,
Raiders, and Falcons. A recipe for a blowout? I think so. Larry
Johnson should still have a solid game, as Denver is susceptible
to the run, but he will have to put up some astronomical numbers
to keep this one close. I generally won’t pick as the top
team for the week a team that depends so much on the passing attack
for success, and more importantly, needs to put up 30+ points
to ensure a win. However, this week’s matchup against Pig
Pen and the Chiefs just presents too good a matchup.
Scott Morrison’s Picks:
Trap Game: 49ers over Saints
After a disastrous season last year, the Niners have grabbed a
couple of consecutive early season wins with solid efforts - especially
the week 2 road win at Seattle. 'Martz Madness' has propelled
the offense to score 30+ in the last two games. In this matchup
against the porous Saints defense, offensive cog Frank Gore should
continue eating up ground yards, which will set the table for
"JT the QB" to put forth another effective passing display.
The world realizes that New Orleans was one Martin 'Kazoo' Grammatica
FG short of knocking off Denver last week at Mile High through
a classic Brees air raid, but I would contend that the 49er pass
defense is no worse than that of the Broncos. This one likely
comes down to the last offensive possession.
#3: Green Bay over Tampa Bay (past
picks: BILLS)
Green Bay comes off of a Sunday Night loss to the explosive Cowboys
in which a couple of big plays did them in. Still this is a top-tier
team loaded with talent at the skill positions which generally
plays solid team defense. The Buccaneer offense is far from explosive
(especially minus Joey Galloway)—last week's 400 passing
yards from historically inconsistent QB Brian Griese notwithstanding.
Although the Packers on the road, I think they are playing at
a level above Tampa. Look for the Packers' defense to force the
erratic Griese into turnovers and for Ryan Grant to get the Pack's
running game on track.
#2: Jacksonville over Houston (past
picks: new england)
It sure did look like Jack Del Rio's offense was cooked like a
Christmas goose for the first two weeks of the season, didn't
it? A sluggish running game, interceptions, and lots of sacks
dominated the Jags' offensive series until last week's turnaround
against hated Indy. Dual 100-yard games from Fred Taylor and MoJo
Drew controlled the clock like it was 2007 all over again. I like
the matchup here versus 0-2 Houston, which had trouble scoring
TDs against the Titans last week. With Rashean Mathis leading
a solid secondary, I see the Jags keeping the Texans' receivers
in check.
#1: Carolina over Atlanta (past picks:
NYG)
Atlanta has looked pretty solid for two of the first three weeks
of this young NFL season, but that's what scheduling the Lions
and Chiefs will do for you. Unfortunately for the Falcons, the
Rams don't come around until the final week of the year, and there
are some tough customers in between. The key for the Falcons is
turning loose RB Michael Turner to limit what rookie QB Matt Ryan
is asked to do. That's unlikely be the case at Carolina -- which
is coming off a fairly solid defensive run-stuffing effort during
a loss to the Vikings (in which they allowed 3.7 yards per carry).
On the offensive side of the ball, the Panthers should run the
ball with great success -- 200 rushing yards and a Jonathan Stewart
breakout game are quite possible here. WR Steve Smith, now back
in the offensive flow after a 4-catch effort last week, should
make a strong impact as well.
For responses to this week's fantasy
question or to share your LMS picks, please email
me no later than 10 a.m. EST on Wednesdays during the football
season.
|