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Trap Game: Denver over San Diego

Let me first say that I was tempted to pick Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, and even Detroit here (in that order). Even I don’t have the cojones to pick Detroit as a 13.5-point dog going into Lambeau, but don’t think I didn’t consider it. In the final analysis, I think Denver is the right choice for the trap game for several reasons.

Let’s start from the beginning. Denver is 5-0. Since the Broncos’ fortuitous win over the Bengals in week one, they pounded on Cleveland and Oakland, then beat Dallas 17-10, and most recently bested New England.

Folks, these guys are for real. Josh McDaniels, whom we all thought was an imbecile forletting Jay Cutler get away, has put together a very strong team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Perhaps that shouldn’t surprise us given that he was Bill Belichick’s understudy while in New England. Many analysts assumed that he was simply the offensive mind behind the Pats, but clearly he picked up some defensive strategy while there as well. The Broncos are the top-ranked defense in the NFL, allowing a meager 8.6 points per game. Perhaps even more impressively, they only allow opposing offenses an average of 252 yards per game—good for second in the league behind my Giants (210 YPG allowed).

That’s a surprisingly strong defense from a team that has been plagued by a porous rush defense and an inconsistent secondary for the past several years.

On the other side of the ball, Denver has put together a fairly strong rushing attack behind the well-rounded youngster Knowshon Moreno and veteran Correll Buckhalter. Kyle Orton has performed well and is (slowly) developing rapports with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Thanks to the Denver defense (which must remind him of his days with Chicago), Orton hasn’t had to play from behind much all season.

In fact, my only fear about this game concerns San Diego getting off to an early lead. If Philip Rivers can strike early with a big pass to Vincent Jackson or Antonio Gates, enabling San Diego’s defense to bring the heat, the Chargers could embarrass Denver. Most assuredly this is what the odds-makers were thinking when they made the 2-2 Chargers a 4.5 point favorite over the Broncos.

If Denver can keep San Diego’s passing game in check, the Broncos have a pretty good shot at pulling off an “upset” on Monday night.

3. Jacksonville over Saint Louis

“You’re picking the team that just lost by 41 points last week to the Seahawks!? Are you kidding me!?” I expect that was your first thought upon reading my third pick for the week. Most likely it was followed by the word “You” and a long train of expletives. Much thanks.

But seriously, it’s a good pick.

No, really, it is.

First and foremost, the Jags host the worst team in the NFL, bar none. Worse than Oakland, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, and the hard-luck 0-5 Titans. The Saint Louis Rams are . . . honestly, I can’t think of a word that conveys just how bad they are – and I’m a law student, I’ve got words for everything.

I wrote to a couple of readers two weeks ago about how I had faith in Steve Spagnuolo and how convinced I was that he would at some point in the season turn that defense around and shock someone. I thought it was going to be the Niners in Week 4. Boy was I wrong.

I have since revised my prognosis for the Rams . . . or at least postponed it. They are 100% not ready to beat anyone, on either side of the ball. Perhaps later in the season they will put together a competent offensive attack or defensive performance, but certainly not now.

(On a totally random note – where is the parity that characterized the NFL for so long? Look how many teams started 0-5: Titans, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams. Maybe that’s why our LMS pick percentages are so high at this point?)

In contrast to the Rams, who are just inept, the Jaguars are merely inconsistent, looking terrible one week and serviceable the next. I’m willing to bet that the Jaguars come back this week and take out their frustration on the Rams. Jacksonville had what had to be a feel-good win over division rival Tennessee two weeks ago and clearly looked past Seattle and felt entitled to a win.

Last week had to be a wake-up call for David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Jaguar defense. Known around the league just a few years ago for its stinginess, the Jacksonville defense has a lot to prove this year. Look for that unit in particular to restore at least a little faith in itself against Saint Louis this week.

2. Pittsburgh over Cleveland

The Steelers, one of the safest LMS picks year in and year out (strong defense and running game), are hosting a team that hasn’t beaten them since October 5, 2003. And remember, that team gets two shots at Pittsburgh each year!

Sounds like a safe pick to me.

Under normal circumstances, taking Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland at home is savvy, but this year it’s even more so.

The Browns are almost as bad as the Rams. Almost. Brady Quinn proved to be ineffective, leading to another QB change and Derek Anderson being re-installed as the starter, for now.

Good move Mangini (Eric Mangini, Head Coach, Cleveland Browns). With a grand completion percentage under 12% (2-17) for a total of 23 yards and an interception, Anderson’s performance last week was downright ghastly. How Cleveland beat Buffalo last week, 6-3, is beyond my comprehension.

Buffalo had another crucial turnover at the end of the game to set up a Browns FG for the win, more than slightly reminiscent of Buffalo’s loss to New England on Monday night in Week 1. That said, the fact that the game was tied 3-3 with 3 minutes to go, in my opinion, explains more about the loss than the fumble did. The coaches may try to deflect blame onto the players, but the fact is that the game shouldn’t have even been close enough that three major errors, never mind one, could lose the game for the Bills.

For our purposes, it is worth noting that beating the Bills last week resulted in the Browns’ first win of the season . . . and potentially their last.

1. Philadelphia over Oakland

This choice requires zero explanation. Literally, you could copy and paste my analysis of the Giants-Raiders game last week, changing “Philadelphia” for “New York” and “Eagles” for “Giants”—and you have your analysis.

To reiterate, Oakland is incapable of moving the ball, and the defense is not what we (I) thought it was going to be following the week one game against San Diego. Richard Seymour is talented and was a good addition, but he’s not a miracle worker.

To win this game, the Raiders will need a miracle worker. Does anyone in the “Black Hole” of Raider Nation have a direct line to the big guy upstairs? I doubt it – in fact, I can’t think of many groups less likely to have one . . .

In the end, Philadelphia’s offense should overwhelm Oakland. Star corner Nnamdi Asomugha might shut down DeSean Jackson, but who is covering upstart Jeremy Maclin (2 TDs last week) and massive TE Brent Celek? Let’s not forget RBs Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, who although contained last week, are both liable to pop a big run at any time.

And wait – what about Mike Vick? Who’s got him?

Okay, that last one wasn’t so serious. 1/3 for 1 yard passing and 10 yards on 4 carries doesn’t strike fear into anyone. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s massacre of Oakland might.