The Week 16 column focused on acquisitions through trading and the waiver wire. Responses to the survey indicated that top-seeded teams are, in fact, more likely to have participated in trades than the other teams in their fantasy leagues. However, since I did not ask respondents to specify when the trades occurred, the relationship between cause and effect remains murky. Are teams that engage in trades more likely to emerge as top-seeded playoff contenders than their rivals? Or is it simply the case that whatever team gets off to the fastest start in any league is more likely than other teams to receive trade offers because competitors see trading as the best way to break up a perceived juggernaut?

Perhaps next season we will be able to delve into that question with more precision. In the meantime, I want to share a comment that I received on the Week 16 column from Craig, who was disappointed to learn that according to most of the readers who responded to my questionnaire, the typical top-seeded fantasy teams engaged in just one trade during the regular season (in leagues in which most owners executed ZERO trades). As Craig explains:

Our league enjoys trading and requires it. You have to trade a top 4 draft pick before the trade deadline in week 10. Thus, we get some blockbuster trades when injuries occur and teams are looking for a 2-for-1 deal for a stud. It makes the art of trading and projecting future value very fun. I have played in leagues with no trading whatsoever and I find them horribly boring because you are simply playing your draft and selected waiver pick ups.

I think the idea of mandatory trades is something that a number of leagues might want to explore, and I am sorry that my holiday travel schedule has prevented me from asking Craig what happens to teams that fail to execute a trade by Week 10. Are they simply disqualified from the post-season? Is their fourth-round pick removed from their roster? If two or more owners fail to comply, do their fourth-round players get shuffled between teams by the commissioner? Perhaps I will have more details concerning Craig’s league in a future column. I confess I have belonged to a couple of leagues in which it felt like the only way any trades would happen was for the commissioner to force the owners to execute them.

Questions 7 & 8 from the survey in Week 14 were designed to find out whether it was more important for top-seeded teams to avoid busts with their top picks (or most expensive players in auction leagues) or to rack up steals with their bottom picks (or least expensive players in auction leagues).

Although there were some notable exceptions, it seems that avoiding busts is more important than snagging steals. According to the responses I received, almost all top-seeded teams had 0-1 busts in their top 5 picks (or 5 most expensive players in auction leagues). Steals in the initial draft/auction were not nearly as common a characteristic for top-seeded teams (perhaps because the most important “steals” happened after the season got underway). Reuben provided his own impression of the relative value of various components that help to build a successful fantasy team:

In general I think that you can't win the league in a draft, but you can lose it. I'd say winning is 50% luck, 25% pulling smart depth players off the wire (either to keep or trade), 20% not hurting yourself in the draft (including not spending too much on a QB), and 5% making good trades.

My data sample isn’t nearly extensive enough to support or refute Reuben’s conclusions, but I like his general tone. In most leagues, the performance of an owner in the initial draft/auction is less about building a winner than it is about not building a loser. Upside is obviously an important consideration, but it is not something that top-seeded teams in 2012 put ahead of durability and consistency—at least not with regard to the earliest picks in the draft (or most expensive players in an auction).

Here is a quick sample of responses from FFers who report that the top-seeded teams in their leagues had 0-1 busts in their top five picks. If you expected top-seeded teams to be great at late-round steals, then rethink your expectations. Notice that for most of these teams, there were 0-1 notable steals in the bottom five picks.

Ryan:
No real busts in the top 5 picks. Nelson at #26 overall and Rodgers at #2 may have been worst value.
No steals among last 5 picks.

David:
Zero busts. Drafted 1. Tom Brady 2. Jamaal Charles 3. Wes Welker 4. Doug Martin 5. Eric Decker. 8th draft slot, live drafted.
Not including a kicker and a defense (13. Kaeding and 14. Arizona) last 5 picks were 8. Darius Heyward-Bey 9. Stevan Ridley 10. Ryan Williams 11. Jacob Tamme 12. Jake Locker. So, one steal in Ridley. The other four hit the waiver wire quite a while ago.

Jeffrey:
One team has no busts, one team had 1 bust (Vick in Rd 3), one team had 1 bust (Fred Jackson in Rd 3).
Two teams had no one significant in final 5 rounds. One team picked Mikel Leshoure in 13th Round and that is now their top RB).

Justin’s League B falls into this pattern, and his League A almost fits it:
7.) League A: Of the top 5 draft picks, 2 were semi-busts (Hakeem Nicks and Fred Jackson).
League B: Of the top 5 draft picks, there was one bust (Greg Jennings) and 1 semi-bust (Fred Jackson)

8.) League A: DEF and K were used for Rds 14 & 15. Excluding these, there were 2 steals. Benjarvus Green-Ellis in the 9th and Reggie Wayne in the 10th.
League B: Of the bottom 5 draft picks, maybe one was a steal (Malcom Floyd).

Kevin:
Busts from top 5 for top-seeded team—One - Mathews
Steals from bottom 5 for top-seeded team—Zero.

Samuel:
1. (1) RB Arian Foster, HOU
2. (20) WR Victor Cruz, NYG
3. (21) WR Brandon Marshall, CHI
4. (40) RB Darren Sproles, NO
5. (41) WR Marques Colston, NO

Sproles is the closest there is to a bust.

12. (120) RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR
13. (121) D/ST Baltimore
14. (140) TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN
15. (141) K Stephen Gostkowski, NE
16. (160) WR Danny Amendola, STL

Glen:
Busts in top 5: 0
Steals in bottom 5: 1

J.R.:
McCoy, Graham, Jones, Jackson, Brown – I’d say McCoy is a slight bust, and Jackson in the 4th is marginal.
Dalton, Eagles, Crosby, Felix Jones, Brian Quick – Dalton is the only steal, later traded for Heath Miller and Brandon Lloyd – not a good trade.

The information I am reporting here is obviously subjective. One person’s idea of a “bust” might qualify for someone else as a “slight reach” or simply a “poor value.” Perhaps more importantly, players that perform well in scoring-only or PPR leagues might not be very valuable in ordinary performance leagues. For the purposes of this column, I am trusting the judgment of those who responded to the questionnaire to assess whether player X qualified as a bust or a steal under the scoring system of their own league.

Although nitpickers might want to bog down in technical definitions of busts and steals, the thing about the answers that leaps out at me is that, generally speaking, top-seeded fantasy teams in 2012 were not built with late-round (or low-cost) steals. They were built around a core of solid players that were expected to perform well—and delivered.

Of course, there were exceptions. Joanna participates in two leagues and reports a higher-than-average number of early round busts in both:

1) team a - 1- Arian Foster
Team b - 5- Andrew Luck
2) team b - 28- Cam Newton
Team a - 32- Ryan Matthews (bustish)
3) team a - 33- Brandon Weeden (bustish as an offensive rookie)
Team b - 38- Antonio Gates (bustish)
4) team b - 60- Vincent Jackson
Team a - 64- Micheal Vick (bust during stretch run)
5) team a - 65- Torrey Smith (bustish?)
Team b - 66- Dwayne Bowe (bust)

I wanted to include Joanna’s comment to demonstrate that even though most top-seeded teams tend to steer clear of busts with their most valuable picks, it is certainly possible for teams to overcome questionable top picks with solid mid-round value and savvy waiver/trade activity.

The final question in my Week 14 survey invited readers to submit questions of their own that they would like to have seen included. I cannot include all of the answers here (at least not without taxing the patience of readers), but Bill gave the most interesting feedback to two of the more popular questions:

#14 (from Justin and Kevin): On a scale of 1 to 10, how much of a factor would you say luck is when it comes to making the playoffs? (Can you use the points for and points against the top teams in your league to support this answer? How different would their place in the standings be if they had played head-to-head matches against every team in the league each week instead of their particular opponents?)

Luck always plays a role. For this season, our two top seeded teams were #1 and #2 in least points allowed, but #5 and #6 in total points scored. In an all-play scenario, our #1 seed would have been 72-71 and our #2 seed would have been 70-73. That would have placed those two teams as the #5 and #6 seeds instead of #1 and #2.

#15 (from J.R.): For redrafter leagues only. Which pick did the top-seeded team in the draft have? (In J.R.'s league, the teams with the top two picks finished 8th and 9th--and did not make the playoffs.)

12-team league - top two seeds drafted 9th and 11th respectively. In fact, our top 5 seeds drafted 9,11,7,10,6. The #6 seed was an outlier and drafted first overall.

I should have the space to revisit other questions (and some of the answers to them) in columns for the 2013 regular season. My thanks to everyone who took the time to write in.

I also want to thank Justin once again for pointing out that the next time I conduct a survey such as the one in Week 14, I should ask respondents not just to tell me WHAT happened, but also WHEN it happened:

I think whether these players are drafted or are post-draft acquisitions greatly affects the success of a team. It crops up when you discuss the importance of RB in your article when you provide some examples of top teams that are deep at RB. Two of the three teams you list include Alfred Morris. Since there was a lot of skittishness about drafting a Shanahan RB and uncertainty about who the eventual starter would be in Washington, Morris likely went undrafted in most leagues. Given the relative importance that is placed on RB, the foresight of a manager to pick up someone like Morris can bolster the chances of a team’s success.

As someone who drafted Roy Helu in multiple leagues, I hear Justin’s message loud and clear.