Last Month's
Question: Does Romo's contract indicate that Jerry Jones is playing
fantasy football?
In my August column, I floated
a pretty outrageous idea to readers in the interest of stirring
things up. I wanted to know if fantasy football could somehow help
to account for the seemingly bloated contract that Tony Romo signed
with the Cowboys in the offseason. Romo is a polarizing figure,
so it's no surprise that there are some people who defend his contract
and others who contend that he is being grossly overcompensated.
However, what I noticed when talking to Cowboy fans over the summer
is that the more outraged they were about Romo's contract,
the less likely they were to be involved in fantasy football.
On the one hand, Dallas fans who have seen Romo win exactly one
playoff game in his entire career with the Cowboys have a hard time
understanding how he can be worth 1/20th of one billion dollars
to Jerry Jones. (Romo's new contract extension essentially guarantees
the 33-year-old QB more than $50M).
On the other hand, FFers who know how hard it is to find QBs that
deliver 4000+ passing yards (along with an impressive TD-to-interception
ratio) each season can see why Jones was willing to fork over so
much cash.
I was hoping for interesting arguments from readers about the manner
in which fantasy football (with its focus on statistical productivity
rather than wins and losses) may have influenced the valuation methodologies
of fans, coaches, owners, and perhaps even players themselves in
the NFL. What I got instead was a list of talented quarterbacks
who never managed to win Super Bowls. I saw Romo compared to Dan
Marino by Miami fans, to Dan Fouts by San Diego fans, and to Jim
Kelly by Buffalo fans. Hey, as long as we're just throwing out the
names of gifted QBs who never won a Super Bowl, where were the Minnesota
fans who should have been comparing Romo to Fran Tarkenton? I guess
they had to stay quiet because no one thinks of Romo as that much
of a scrambler!
I don't see any of those QBs as a strong analogy for Romo, but perhaps
that's because I live in Cowboy country, where Romo's detractors
aren't angry because he hasn't won a Super Bowl, but because he
doesn't seem to care (or even notice!) when the Cowboys lose. Romo's
critics aren't likely to see a resemblance to Marino (whose Super
Bowl loss came against a 49er team led by the legendary Joe Montana)
or to Fouts (who took the Chargers to the playoffs every year from
1979 to 1982 and won a playoff game in 3 out of 4 seasons) or to
Kelly (whose reputation would be entirely different if Scott Norwood's
field goal attempt at the end of Super Bowl XXV hadn't sailed a
yard to the right of the goalpost).
But just as Romo's critics would refuse to accept such comparisons,
Max refused to accept my seemingly ridiculous FF-based explanation
of Jones' motivation to (over)pay Romo:
Romo’s
contract seems outrageously inflated to me, but I’m not buying
the fantasy football angle. I think it has more to do with the fact
there’s less than a dozen quarterbacks with proven track records
of being able to throw for over 4,000 yards in a season and there’s
32 teams in the league. With the bending of the rules to make passing
more attractive, a quarterback who can sling it is worth a lot,
even if he has a penchant for throwing it to the wrong team at the
most inopportune times. Still, 55 Mil guaranteed? Sheesh.
Fair enough, Max. Fantasy football is one heck of a reach to account
for that eye-popping contract, but Romo's paycheck does seem to
cry out for some explanation beyond what he has delivered to this
point. Sheesh indeed.
This
Week's Question: What's your league's procedure for bringing in
new owners?
Sometimes readers write in with questions because they have answers
they're eager to share. That seems to be the case with Daryl, who
contacted me in mid-August to ask how other leagues go about replacing
owners from one season to the next:
We don't have a lot of turnover in my league, but when owners decide
to leave, it's usually because they finished at or near the bottom
of the standings.
Okay, fine. They had a bad year, and they want to quit. So we start
looking for someone to replace them.
The problem is that we award draft positions based on the reverse
order of the standings. The worst team obviously needs the most
help, so that team gets to pick first. (Pretty standard I think.)
For two years in a row, the owner who finished in last place has
decided not to return to the league, so the new guy is the one who
ends up with the top spot in the draft. That's kind of a bummer
for the old-timers, so we made a new rule:
Any
departing owner forfeits two separate assets to be recovered
- A franchise – which will be filled by
an incoming owner
- A draft selection position – which will
be put up for auction amongst all 12 owners (incoming and veteran)
once all 12 owners are in place
Open franchises are handled as follows
- Any applicant must be approved by a majority
(at least 50.1%) of veteran owners to become an “approved
applicant"
- All “approved applicants” are eligible
to bid for any open franchise – highest bidder wins (minimum
winning bid $0)
After all 12 owners are in place, the forfeited draft selection
position will be put up for auction amongst all 12 owners (minimum
winning bid $1)
Daryl's league ended up auctioning the top draft spot on ebay. He
sent me a link while the bidding was still active, and I wanted
to include it in this article, but the auction has since closed
and disappeared.
The simplest way to handle this transaction would probably be to
say that the newcomer to the league simply lands in the spot previously
assigned to whichever owner wins the auction for the top pick. Apparently
Daryl's league calls for a more complex resolution that requires
subsequent auctions of abandoned draft slots (with the newcomer
getting an automatic $0 preemptive bid on each new slot) until no
higher bids are made.
I'm
interested in what readers think of Daryl's auction model, but
I'm also asking a much larger question. Even if you don't have an
opinion about auctioning off draft slots, I'm interested in the
measures that long-standing fantasy leagues take to attract new
members without alienating the veteran players. Whether this is
a question your league has resolved satisfactorily or an ongoing
point of contention, I look forward to learning how your league
brings new owners into the mix.
Survivor
Picks - Week 1 (Courtesy of Matthew
Schiff)
[Note: In the past, this section of
the Q&A column has appeared under the subheading "Last
Man Standing" or the corresponding acronym ("LMS").
The "Last Man Standing" name stretches back more than
a decade through a series of guest contributors all the way to the
earliest installments, when I made these picks myself. Over the
years, Matthew Schiff has been the most insightful and consistent
contributor of this feature, but he has always written to me about
"Survivor Pools," not "LMS Pools." In the past,
I have edited his contributions to make them consistent with previous
installments of this column, but he's been doing such a great job
for so many years now that it's time for me to re-christen this
section of the column in his honor. Accordingly, readers should
no longer Google "LMS Picks" to find Schiff's predictions.
Let it be shouted from all the virtual mountaintops of the cyberworld:
This section of Q&A will henceforth be known as "Survivor
Picks." So let it be written. So let it be done. The Q&A
column and FFToday are once again delighted to feature Schiff's
LMS Survivor picks for the upcoming season.]
Trap
Game: New England at Buffalo: (8-8 in 2012):
Last year in Week One, the New Orleans Saints were getting adjusted
to life without Sean Payton and fell flat on their faces against
their division rival Carolina Panthers (and we warned you about
it - going 4-0 in Week 1). This year, the Patriots travel to Buffalo,
where the Bills may start rookie Jeff Tuel instead of EJ Manuel
(who is recovering from minor knee surgery). If that happens as
expected, this game won't be close. However, there are rumors that
Manuel might start, in which case the Bills could sneak up on New
England. The Patriots return Tom Brady for his 14th season with
a totally revamped receiving corps from last year. If Brady is out
of sync with his receivers (not unlikely given that Wes Welker is
in Denver, Aaron Hernandez is in prison, and Rob Gronkowski is in
. . .jured), and if the mighty Pats stroll into lowly Buffalo a
little more confident than they should be--then we have the makings
of a TRAP game. Belichick is notorious for losing early-season games
when New England is favored by double digits. All I have to say
is "Wildcat!" to bring back bad memories of an eerily
similar contest in Miami. Thus, the beloved Pats should be AVOIDED
in a game that Vegas has them winning big.
#3: Kansas City at Jacksonville (16-1
in 2012):
These two teams were atrocious last year, which is why they both
brought in new head coaches (Andy Reid and Gus Bradley). The Chiefs,
however, went the extra mile of adding some good players (notably
Alex Smith and Donnie Avery) who fit into the West Coast Offense
that Reid likes to run. When combined with other talented players
like Jamaal Charles (now two years removed from his knee injury)
and Dwayne Bowe, this team goes from being the doormat of the
AFC West to a potential playoff contender. Kansas City's defense
was ranked 20th overall last year in total yards allowed, but
their offense was dead last, averaging just 13.2 points per game.
Look for that to change this season as the Chiefs feast in Week
One on a Jacksonville defense that was 30th in points allowed
with almost 28 per game. Since someone has to win this one, I'll
take the experienced coach and the upgraded offense to start the
season off right. The only scary thing about the game is that
the Chiefs are a lot better at home, but the Jags don't seem to
have enough talent for the venue to matter.
#2: Denver over Baltimore (13-4 in 2012):
A rematch of last year's AFC Championship game is on tap for Week
1. Unfortunately for the Ravens, however, there won't be anyone
named Ray Lewis or Ed Reed on the field for the first time in
14 seasons. Joe Flacco signed an extended contract, and Ray Rice
is still around, but it will be Peyton Manning and a trio of running
backs that take over this game. The Broncos have also upgraded
their defense with the likes of Jack Del Rio at defensive coordinator
and Quentin Jammer at safety (instead of his usual cornerback
role). Combine those Denver upgrades with Baltimore's loss of
Lewis, Reed, Anquan Bolden and Dennis Pitta, and this game favors
a Mile High victory for the home team. Don't get me wrong; both
of these teams will be in the mix at the end of the season, but
the Ravens will need some time to figure out who they can rely
on in the passing game and to replace the leadership of Lewis
and Reed on defense before they can take on the big boys of the
conference and expect to win.
#1: Indianapolis over Oakland (14-3 in
2012):
Survival pools are about finding that one game that is a lock
each and every week. You see, it should be rather easy to find
that one game where there is a clear potential winner and loser.
Unfortunately for most of us though, in these types of pools,
you are limited to picking a single team once per season. But
there is some good news in that we already know who to pick on
in 2013! The hapless Raiders openly admit they're in "rebuilding
mode," and the rebuilding doesn't appear to be going well
(as evidenced by the fact that they've already cut their 4th-round
draft choice, QB Tyler Wilson). Compare Oakland's QB quandary
to Indy's brilliant transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck.
The Colts' signal caller is only starting his third year, but
has already established himself as a savvy veteran; he should
have no difficulty against an Oakland defense that allowed 28
passing touchdowns last season and an average of 28 points per
game. It's doubtful that newly acquired running back Ahmad Bradshaw
will play in this week's opener, but Vick Ballard and Donald Brown
won't have much trouble filling in. Expect a balanced attack at
home against dysfunctional Oakland. The Raiders won't go 0-16,
but picking against them straight up this season is going to be
a pretty safe bet.
Mike Davis has been writing about
fantasy football since 1999. As a landlocked Oklahoman who longs
for the sound of ocean waves, he also writes about ocean colonization
under the pen name Studio Dongo. The latest installment in his science
fiction series can
be found here.
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