Last Week's Question
Sometimes the question I ask isn't the one readers are interested
in answering. In my column for Week 3, I tried to close the chapter
on Peter's playoff proposal and open a discussion concerning the
re-purposing of fantasy-related websites.
What I got instead was more feedback concerning Peter's proposal--not
because readers were especially interested in adopting or modifying
it, but because those who prefer points-based leagues to head-to-head
(H2H) leagues had a hard time accepting that Peter's response to
perceived unfairness in his playoff tournament was to devise a system
based on wins and losses rather than total points.
I'm always grateful to readers who respond to this column, but the
reason I didn't belabor those responses back in Week 3 was because
I didn't think we needed to revisit the "total points vs. H2H"
discussion that has taken place in this forum in the past. If anything,
Peter's emphasis on wins and losses in his tournament model is a
testament to the fact that whatever value he places on "fairness,"
he is willing to make certain sacrifices for the sake of the thrills
that come with H2H match-ups.
Some readers must have felt I didn't make this point clearly enough
in Week 3, as I continued to receive notes from the pro-points (and
anti-H2H) crowd after that column appeared. Last week, I decided
to let Bill's comment on this subject suffice for the total-points
camp. However, it's such a balanced take on the issue that it bears
repeating here:
I will always play HTH because there is something
to be said for going one-on-one against your buddy's team. But if
I can only win one championship each year, I will take the points
league every time.
Since I continued to receive notes such as the one below from Marc,
it's plain that those who favor the total-points approach would
have liked me to shine more of a spotlight on the key flaw they
see in Peter's logic:
Irony. Peter is bitter about an unlucky loss
in the playoffs, but unlucky losses in the regular season are ok?
If you play in a H2H league (any sport), you're going to introduce
a ton of luck based on your schedule - including the playoffs.
If you want to determine the "best" team, you need to
look at points scored, not H2H record.
I get where Marc is coming from. And I completely understand why
the most important league for Bill to win each year is his total
points league (rather than any H2H leagues in which he might play
for fun).
But the limitation of such a critique is that it doesn't take the
readers of this column anywhere they haven't been before. For more
than a decade, the consensus of readers of Q&A has been that
points-based leagues do a superior job of determining which owner
built the strongest team. Nevertheless, H2H leagues remain popular
because they allow for individual rivalries to be settled one way
or another each week. If I win against Mike Krueger in a H2H league,
I can send him a taunting note that reads, "Hey bud, I used
your own player rankings to beat you." But if I score twenty
points more than him one week in a total-points league, I'm not
likely to send him any kind of note--because he could easily outscore
me by 25 the next week. Realistically, none of our scoring dips
and spikes matter until the end of the season anyway, since that's
when the totals get tallied.
So to all the pro-points FFers out there, I'm sorry if my column
for Week 3 did anything to suggest that I am hostile to your argument.
For the record, I accept the contention that the "fairest"
fantasy leagues are those that rely on total points rather than
H2H records. But as I've said in the past, I don't play fantasy
football because I love being fair; I play fantasy football because
I love fun--and I find that H2H leagues are more fun than points-based
leagues. This is why the logical flaw of Peter's model never bothered
me the way it bothered so many readers.
Which leads me to . . .
This Week's Question
Since I don't want to be accused of bias against total-points leagues
(which I sometimes participate in and always enjoy--albeit never
as much as H2H leagues), I want to give the points-only crowd a
chance to SHOW ME THE DRAMA!
Here's the drama of what happened in my primary (H2H) league in
Week 3:
All of my players were active in the early Sunday game. Since I
have both DeMarco Murray and Giovanni Bernard in that league, I
had a grand old time watching my points steadily increase through
the early afternoon. When the early games ended, all 8 of my players
were done. I had racked up a total of 121 points (in a league in
which the weekly average score is around 105-110 points). My score
was good but unspectacular. My opponent had scored 107 points with
only 6 players. He still had Demaryius Thomas and Andre Ellington
left to play in the late afternoon game.
I wasn't terribly concerned about Ellington, but even an injured
Thomas could put me away early. I watched the Seattle-Denver game
with my heart leaping into my throat every time Manning looked Thomas'
way.
As one quarter after another went by without a big play from Thomas,
I started to think that my score of 121 might just be enough for
me to squeak out a win. Meanwhile, Arizona's Ellington got some
yardage against the 49ers, but he finished without a TD--for a total
of 9 points in that scoring system. But I couldn't relax. Denver
was in the worst possible situation from my perspective: down by
8 with time running out and a lot of field to cover.
Every play on that last Bronco drive gave me palpitations. I gasped
when there was a medium pass to Thomas that made his yardage for
the game worth 4 points.
I was still stuck at 121. My opponent had surged to 120.
When Manning connected with Jacob Tamme (instead of Thomas) for
Denver's last TD, I wanted to celebrate, but I knew that I wasn't
off the hook with Denver trailing Seattle by two. My knuckles rapped
the coffee table precisely like the knuckles of a smoker jonesing
for a cigarette as the Bronco offense set up for the two-point conversion.
"Throw it to Julius Thomas, not Demaryius!"
I shouted at the screen as Peyton took the snap.
But he didn't listen to me. I don't think Peyton has ever listened
to me. He threw it straight to Demaryius as if to spite me.
The Broncos sent that game into overtime only to lose. That was
the bitterest part of the pill for me. If Thomas hadn't caught the
pass for the 2-point conversion, the Seahawks would have won in
regulation. The only difference Thomas' catch made was that Denver
lost a few minutes later, in overtime.
But in my fantasy league, Thomas' catch made all the difference
in the world. The final score in my game was 121-122; I was a loser.
I've been playing fantasy football since the late '90s. I'm a grown-damn
man in my forties. And yet when Demaryius Thomas caught that 2-point
conversion, my heart was doing somersaults of disappointment. My
mouth went dry. I stomped my feet and screamed.
I don't believe any of that would have happened in a total-points
league.
In H2H leagues, it's easy to become emotionally invested in the
final moments of multiple games each week. In total-points leagues,
I don't experience anything like that kind of emotional investment
until the end of the season.
And here's the bonus bit of emotional roller coaster provided courtesy
of that H2H league: My opponent's defense (the Bengals) had been
erroneously awarded 4 more points than they earned in their game.
As I slept, that error was caught and corrected by our league-hosting
service. When I woke the next morning, I saw that I had won my game
121-118.
I was positively exultant. The taste of my coffee changed in my
mouth (from ho-hum to delicious) as it dawned on me that I had won.
In a total-points league, I probably wouldn't have even noticed
the scoring adjustment. If I had noticed, it might have produced
a shrug.
So that's my H2H anecdote. What anecdotes do you points-only devotees
have to share from your experiences?
Can you show me the drama
(especially from the early part of the season)?
Survivor Picks - Week 4 (Courtesy of
Matthew Schiff)
Trap Game: Indianapolis over Tennessee
For all of you Indy faithful, this is not a pick against you, but
a pick against a matchup that occurs twice every season between
divisional opponents wherein trickery can all too easily determine
the winner because the teams know each other so well. The Titans
aren’t a very good football team and only get respect because
of prior accomplishments. Andrew Luck is still living in the shadows
of Peyton Manning, three years removed, and doesn’t have a
supporting cast that instills fear in their opponents like the teams
of years past. But Reggie Wayne is healthy, and T.Y. Hilton is enough
of a threat on the other side to force defenses to leave holes open
in the running game for Ahmad Bradshaw. (Those same holes presumably
exist for Trent Richardson, but he hasn't been able to do much with
them and is probably close to being relegated to the bench very
soon.) As for the Titans, they clearly don’t have enough offense
behind Jake Locker (swollen hand and all) to provide a threat that
would keep up with a Volkswagen beetle in an open field drag race,
let alone a back and forth battle against a quarterback like Luck
who has proven that he can compete in a shootout. The only reason
this game is a trap game is because some of you might think that
this is a “lock”, and it is not, especially between
divisional opponents. There will come a time this season that the
Colts are your team of choice, but not THIS week.
#3: San Francisco over Philadelphia (2-1:
Pit, NO, CIN):
Philadelphia travels west to San Francisco and should face one of
the toughest tests of the season against a team that cannot afford
to fall to 1-3 after four weeks in a division where they might find
themselves behind both the second-place Super Bowl Champion Seahawks
and the Arizona Cardinals, who (surprise!) now stand atop the division
at 3-0. Call this an early season “gut check” for Jim
Harbaugh's crew as Colin Kaepernick and company have to “will
a victory” against Chip Kelly, who used to come south to the
Bay area on a regular basis to take on Pac 10 division foes when
he coached his Oregon Ducks to the tops of the college football
polls. While Kelly won’t be facing Stanford, the only team
to beat him in his final season at Oregon, he will be facing an
old nemesis in Jim Harbaugh, the former coach of the very team that
prevented him from playing for the collegiate National Championship.
The line says 49ers by 5.5, but this will be closer than that with
the home team eking it out against a visiting squad that has expectations
of representing the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl.
#2: Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay (1-2: CHI,
Sea, NO):
So, who feels confident with my #2 picks this season? NOT ME! But
I hope to right the ship by picking a Steeler team at home against
a rival offense that is missing its top QB and RB. Josh McCown may
be sidelined for four to six weeks, and Doug Martin hasn’t
looked like the stud running back that he was in 2012 since . .
. well . . . 2012. Worst of all for Tampa fans, Lovie Smith and
the Bucs were totally embarrassed last week against the Falcons
on Thursday night football. To add injury to insult, Vincent Jackson
has a fractured hand that no one, even his team, thinks will matter.
The Steelers should coast to a victory at home in spite of “Smoke
Gate” as RBs "Leave-one-toke-for-me" Bell and LeGarrette
"Pass-me-that" Blount wait for their punishment over a
marijuana possession charge that would be a $25 misdemeanor in Philadelphia
today. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been as sharp as usual this
season, but look for him to get on track at home against a Bucs
defense that gives up the second most points per game (31.2). The
only thing that would guarantee a complete lock on this game was
if it was played in temperatures at or below 32 degrees, since the
Bucs are incapable of winning when the temperature is below freezing.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty
Schiff)
#1: San Diego over Jacksonville (3-0: PHI,
DEN, NE):
The Blake Bortles era has begun in Jacksonville (as predicted
by this writer last week in this column) and should provide a
spark to an offense that is badly in need of some playmakers.
While Cecil Shorts is starting to get healthy, and might provide
veteran support to the rookie QB, run support could be limited
with Toby Gerhart a game-time decision. Facing a defense that
has seven sacks and three recovered fumbles so far this season,
Bortles has a tall order to fill on the road, even though his
fantasy stats may provide a boost to those in dire need of a bye
week replacement. As for the Chargers, Philip Rivers has quietly
been steady (verging on stellar) over the last season and a half.
Even without a consistent receiver to rely upon, he has been putting
up an average of 250 yards and two touchdowns every week. These
are numbers that can keep ANY fantasy team in contention on a
consistent basis. Unfortunately for him, his team will need to
rely on him even more now after a season-ending injury to Danny
Woodhead (ankle) and Ryan Matthews (MCL sprain two weeks ago).
If Donald Brown can find some running room this week, this should
be an easy win for the Bolts who will find themselves atop the
AFC West with a 3-1 record after four weeks, something that hasn’t
happened since 2006 (when Marty Schottenheimer was coach).
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999.
As a landlocked Oklahoman who longs for the sound of ocean waves,
he also writes about ocean colonization under the pen name Studio
Dongo. The latest installment in his science fiction series can
be found here.
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