The Forgotten Man: Chris Johnson reportedly
has an offer on the table from the RB-needy Cardinals.
It’s easy for fantasy enthusiasts to lose track of players
who bounce between teams, especially when their productivity suffers
a dramatic downturn along the way (whether that downturn is due
to injury, surrounding cast, coaching philosophy, or a bizarre form
of what can only be termed “streakiness”).
Below, I’ve chosen one player at each of the major fantasy
skill positions to demonstrate that some NFL nomads have a much
higher value than their average draft position suggests.
Running Back – Chris
Johnson (from the Titans to the Jets to negotiations
with the Cardinals)
ADP: unranked on FFToday as of 8/13; 16th round on nfl.com as of
8/12
With the first-round selection of right tackle D.J. Humphries and
the free agency acquisition of guard Mike Iupatio (a former 49er
Pro-Bowler), Arizona’s offensive line will be better in 2015
than it was in 2014.
For the record, the Cardinals’ O-line wasn’t horrible
in 2014—at least in terms of protecting the quarterback (err,
4 quarterbacks by the time all was said and done). But even though
the Cardinals yielded under two sacks per game (something of an
achievement considering the QB carousel), their ground game was
poor. Their average rush of 3 1/3 yards per carry was the worst
in the NFL. That statistic will improve in 2015.
It seems likely that Johnson will be a Cardinal before the season
starts, and if that proves to be the case, then he will be in a
much better situation in 2015 than in 2014, an aberrant season in
which he joined the Jets only to split time in the backfield with
Chris Ivory for the entire year.
Some people soured on Johnson back in 2013 (his final season with
the Titans) because he didn’t live up to their expectations—though
it is of course difficult to meet expectations consistently when
your nickname is CJ2K. In fact, Johnson finished 2013 with perfectly
good numbers (over 1000 yards rushing, another 345 receiving, and
a total of 10 TDs). His overall production suffered in 2014 (thanks
to the timeshare arrangement in New York), but he finished the season
with an average of 4.28 yards per carry (almost a full yard per
carry better than the Cardinals did as a team in 2014—and
exactly one yard per carry better than Andre Ellington averaged).
My bet is that if Johnson ends up as a Cardinal, many experts will
simply shrug because his pending situation in Arizona seems analogous
to the crowded backfield left behind in New York. But the difference
between Ivory and Ellington is that Ellington missed the last four
games of 2014 after hernia surgery and is coming into the 2015 season
with hamstring concerns. If Johnson becomes a Cardinal, he will
benefit from a) Ellington’s fragility; b) the return of Carson
Palmer under center, and c) a dramatically improved offensive
line. Johnson is an under-the-radar RB on the backside of his career
as he contemplates moving to an under-the-radar offense.
Nevertheless, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
You have my apologies if the deal with Arizona falls through; unfortunately,
my deadline for this column was earlier than Johnson’s deadline
to make a decision. If Johnson does sign with Arizona, his ADP is
bound to rise, but it won’t rise enough. Even while splitting
time with Ivory last year, he was a solid RB3; he’ll be at
least that good in Arizona.
Wide Receiver – Greg
Jennings (from the Packers to the Vikings to the
Dolphins)
ADP: 66th WR on FFToday as of 8/13; 16th round on nfl.com as of
8/12
Moving around makes players seem old prematurely. Jennings will
only be 32 in September. Even if that is old for an RB, it’s
fine for a WR.
Just admit it. He’s not as old as you thought. You assumed
he was 36 or so because he was with the Packers way back when, and
then he disappeared in Minnesota and now he’s . . . where?
Oh yeah . . . Miami. Only Miami doesn’t have that Marino guy
anymore. What’s the new kid’s name? Tannehill?
Yeah, his name is Ryan Tannehill, and in 2014, he became the first
Dolphin QB since Marino to throw for 4000 yards in a single season.
Admittedly, some of that yardage is attributable to how pass-friendly
the NFL has become since Marino’s day. In any case, Tannehill
finished 2014 as an elite QB2 with a total of 4065 yards, 27 TDs,
and just 12 picks.
Dismiss Tannehill if you wish. Say that anyone can throw for 4k
yards in today’s NFL. Even so, someone has to catch those
passes, including the scores. That someone won’t be Mike Wallace
(who’s gone to Minnesota). So who will it be?
Will it be Miami’s first-round draft choice, DeVante
Parker? He could eventually emerge as the Dolphins’ star
receiver in 2015—after he recovers from foot surgery to the
point that he can begin practicing with the team in earnest. He
probably had a bone graft done when a small screw in his foot was
replaced with a larger one in June. Spokespeople for the Dolphins
are saying all the right things to have us believe that Parker will
be healthy by Week 1, but if it takes 16 weeks for him to recover
(as
is sometimes the case with this form of surgery), the rookie
may not be able to have his first NFL practice in pads at full speed
until the end of September. I’m not optimistic that Parker
will work himself into the mix before mid-October, and his contributions
will likely come in dribs and drabs at first. The Dolphins’
designated starters will probably be the primary stat producers
in receptions for the first six to eight weeks of the season, so
they’re the ones I focus on as I wonder who will help Tannehill
hit the 4000-yard mark again in 2015.
Will it be Kenny
Stills? Of course he’ll account for some of it. He was targeted
83 times in New Orleans last year, and he finished the season with
931 yards and 3 TDs. That was what Stills could do with Drew
Brees throwing him the ball. Do you think that a guy coming
to Philbin’s Dolphins from Payton’s Saints is going to improve by
much on those numbers? If not, that leaves us with 3,000 passing
yards and 24 TDs to account for.
What about Jarvis Landry? Well, we already know what he can do with
Tannehill throwing him the ball, as he finished 2014 with 112 targets
for 758 yards and 5 scores. He should improve on those numbers in
2015, but even if he finishes with 900 yards and 7 TDs, that still
leaves us with 2100 yards and 17 TDs (which assumes only that Tannehill
will play as well in 2015 as he did in 2014, when in fact I think
he will play better).
Let’s assign most of the remaining yardage to TEs, RBs, and
special package receiving personnel—say 1200 yards and 10
TDs. That would leave Jennings with a balance of 900 yards and 7
TDs. Is he realistically capable of those numbers?
Heavens, yes.
Jennings was targeted 91 times in 2014—and please note that
those were Teddy Bridgewater targets, not Brees targets or Tannehill
targets. He converted those 91 targets into 59 receptions for 742
yards and 6 TDs, and he generated those stats with an inexperienced
QB on a team that had no running game to keep the secondary honest.
Of course he’ll improve on those numbers; the only reason
you ever doubted it was because you had forgotten all about him.
Jennings was hurt for one year in Green Bay (2012 with a groin injury)
before he spent the next year in Minnesota with Matt Cassell (2013)
followed by another year in Minnesota with Bridgewater (2014)—so
in most people’s opinion, he might as well have retired three
years ago.
But back in his last healthy season with a non-dysfunctional team
(the Packers in 2011), Jennings only needed 99 targets to hit 949
yards and 9 TDs. This guy’s a good player who got seriously
hurt and could reasonably be written off as a health risk if he
hadn’t since played two competitive seasons on a team whose
controversies overshadow its players.
Don’t ignore Jennings. High-end WR3 numbers are his floor—certainly
until the rookie Parker demonstrates that he is physically and mentally
prepared to contribute, and possibly thereafter—and Jennings
has a higher ceiling than most people are willing to admit.
Tight End – Owen
Daniels (from the Texans to the Ravens to the
Broncos)
ADP: 8th TE on FFToday as of 8/13; 14th round on nfl.com as of 8/12
Although Denver’s Virgil Green is widely regarded as one of
the best blocking tight ends in the game, he has yet to prove himself
as a receiver. He had only 6 catches in 2014 (for a total of 74
yards and 1 TD). Of course, there was little reason for Manning
to rely on Green last year since he had the prolific Julius Thomas
at his disposal.
The hype from Denver is that with Thomas having moved on, it’s
time for Green to step up as a receiving threat. That hype would
be a lot more believable if the Broncos hadn’t burned their
third-round pick on rookie TE Jeff Heuerman (who has since been
lost for the season with a torn ACL). The Broncos’ faith in
Green was further undermined by their acquisition of Owen Daniels
(a longtime favorite of Coach Gary Kubiak, under whom Daniels played
in both Houston and Baltimore).
Kubiak is fond of double-TE formations, so he probably intends to
use Green and Daniels together, and Green could well emerge (as
many analysts expect) as the more potent receiving threat.
However, I think it’s too easy to dismiss Daniels on the basis
of a lackluster Baltimore campaign in 2014 that followed fast on
the heels of his most disappointing season in Houston. Regrettably,
in 2013, after starting off the year with three TDs in the first
five games, Daniels missed the last 11 games of the season with
a fractured fibula. However, in 2012 (his last full season as a
Texan), Daniels was a top-10 tight end in fantasy scoring. He was
targeted over 100 times and finished the season with 700 yards and
6 TDs—and that was with Matt Schaub throwing him the ball.
Manning is an upgrade.
Word out of training camp from the Broncos is that Daniels is passing
on a lot of his wisdom to Green. This may be exactly what Kubiak
brought him on board to do, and Green may well finish 2015 as the
unquestioned heir to Thomas. But since most players teach by example
in the NFL, I expect Daniels to set the tone for a productive tight
end by picking up where Thomas left off.
Between his injury in Houston and his uneven performance with the
Ravens, Daniels will be written off by many folks looking to pounce
on the younger and more athletic Green, but I expect Daniels to
be Denver’s most productive tight end through Week 8 at a
minimum. Youth matters, of course; but between Green and Daniels,
only one has proven himself capable of finishing a season as a top-10
TE in reception and scoring.
Perhaps more importantly, in light of Kubiak’s fondness for
double-TE sets, Daniels will have a chance to show us what he can
do as an outlet for Manning whether he’s at the top of the
depth chart or not.
Quarterback – Ryan
Fitzpatrick (from the Bills to the Titans to the
Texans to the Jets)
ADP: 30th QB on FFToday as of 8/6; 16th round on nfl.com as of 8/12
Fitzpatrick has never been a reliable fantasy quarterback. That
won’t change this year. However, anyone who pays attention
to history in the NFL can see that Fitzpatrick invariably gets off
to a solid start when he is a team’s undisputed #1 signal
caller at the beginning of a season.
It happened last season in Houston, when, in the first two games,
his completion percentage approached 70% and he threw three TDs
with zero picks. He wasn’t the starter at the beginning of
the season in 2013, but if we go back to when he started for Buffalo
in 2012, he had 12 TDs in his first four games. Unfortunately, that
first quarter of the season accounted for half of his TDs for the
year, as he faded fast beginning in Week 5. We saw essentially the
same pattern in 2011, when Fitzpatrick lit things up in the first
three games only to deteriorate as the season wore on.
Thanks to Geno Smith’s broken jaw, Fitzpatrick will begin
the season under center for the Jets, which is actually good news
for Jets fans—since the beginning of the season is when Fitzpatrick
is at his most productive.
No, I’m not suggesting that anyone should build a fantasy
team around Fitzpatrick, but based on his early-season performances
in 2011, 2012, and 2014, he strikes me as the missing piece of the
puzzle for Brady owners everywhere. If you intend to draft Brady
and you want a low-cost understudy to propel you through the looming
suspension, look no further than Journeyman Fitzpatrick.
P.S. Would Your Existing League Like
to Compete Against Other Leagues?
As a special service to the commissioner of the league to which
I have belonged for almost 20 years, I have agreed to mention that
our fantasy mega-league is looking to add a single conference of
twelve teams. This invitation does NOT extend to individuals who
want to join an expanding league; it extends only to existing leagues
of 10-12 teams that may be interested in acting as a largely autonomous
conference within a privately run league aggregator known as JAFFL.
I have played within the JAFFL structure since the late 90s, and
it’s interesting because each conference within the league
consists of 12 teams that conduct their own drafts and do their
own thing without much regard for what the other conferences are
doing. However, we feature a mega-league postseason in which the
teams with the best records from throughout the league compete for
a mega-championship title. Some conferences within JAFFL schedule
their own private championship tournaments in addition to this postseason;
others play the regular season only with the hope of making it to
the mega-championship. That determination is left to individual
conferences. The best way for me to endorse this unusual structure
for FF is to say that it’s not as complicated sounds and it’s
a heck of a lot of fun. Here’s the promo the commissioner
asked me to include:
Attention commissioners: Just Another Fantasy
Football League 3.0 (JAFFL 3.0) is looking for an in-place league
of 10-12 owners. JAFFL 3.0 is a unique mega-league, where multiple
traditional leagues simultaneously compete in a) the exact same
traditional format you are used to and b) inter-league competition.
We DO NOT want individuals. We DO NOT want you to change your traditions.
The tighter your group the better. In-place groups required. Please
contact me at for details.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
