Last Week’s Question: Remember when?

Most of the responses I received to my “Remember when?” question focused on a single characteristic of FF that has changed over the years (which is great, since it’s just what I asked for). But Phil didn’t just recall one thing; he took a little stroll down memory lane and commented on several points of interest along the way:

I remember when ...

* The original major league management websites like ESPN & Yahoo used to charge for "live" box scores that would update during game play. They'd bundle that and some other features into the "premier" package that averaged a few bucks per week.

* Teams and TV stations weren't exactly "fantasy friendly." Nowadays they kowtow to us, recognizing the power of the fantasy community, but [it used to be that] finding reliable injury news, individualized stats, and depth chart information wasn't nearly as easy as it is today.

* I could use my work computer for fantasy websites before companies caught on and started using "web filtering" that included porn AND fantasy/gambling sites.

On the plus side, live scoring is now free. On the even bigger plus side, injury updates concerning key players are practically nonstop in 2015. And on the biggest plus side of all, FF now invites comparisons to pornography. We’ve come a long way, baby.

I mentioned submitting lineups via email in my last column, but Donovan recalls even more cumbersome technology (answering machines, faxes, and floppy disks) playing a role in his early FF days:

Our 25-year league has always used a “sealed bid” system for free agents on Wednesdays, just like ESPN allows now. [As commish,] I had to buy a better answering machine that could hold more than 10 messages so that the mini-tape in the machine was capable of storing everybody’s bids. Then I would listen to all of the bids on Thursday morning, figure out which owners got which players, and send a fax to each league owner. After the games on Tuesday morning, I’d send out another fax to each league owner that summarized my hand-calculated results. My floppy disk that contained fax cover sheets for each owner was the most critical part of being a successful commissioner.

Of the comments posted directly to the Q&A column for Week 13, a note from G7 stood out concerning this bizarre exploit of an antiquated draft service:

The first year of big-time online fantasy football (late 90s), my office decided to have a league. The automatic draft was set up on a (ESPN/NFL?) website. Back then you ranked players based on conference and position: [e.g.] you ranked all AFC QBs, [then all] NFC QBs, [then all] AFC RBs, [then all] NFC RBs, etc. I was the only person who noticed that you could change the default draft order that started at QBs...going AFC and then NFC all the way through all the positions...so I bumped AFC QB to the end of my draft. So while [my competitors] were spending their first pick on an AFC QB...I got my #1 pick at NFC QB. The next round everyone was picking their NFC QB...I was picking my #1 AFC RB...and so on through the whole draft... So I got my first choice at every position while everyone else battled it out on the snake draft.

That’s an awesome memory. I’m glad it’s on the web for everyone to see.

The recollections that dominated the responses I received via email concerned box scores and the fantasy magazines of yesteryear. Since Mark mentioned both in his response, I’ll give the final word to him:

I remember when I was the Commish and had to hand calculate the scores by getting stats out of the Monday and Tuesday morning papers. Final lineups had to be in by Friday night at midnight. (We all worked at the same bar and there was no Thursday football - except on Thanksgiving).

Everyone would show up at the draft with a copy of Fantasy Football Forecast because there were no FFL websites... hell, there was no internet. Those of us who knew how to do real research had a massive advantage because there were no draft rooms that kept up with a draft and suggested picks. We would even charge $5 to anyone who tried to draft a player who was already rostered. Damn you, Al Gore and your infernal invention! Bring back the good ole days!

I realize Mark is just joking at the end of his response, but his final comment raises an interesting question . . .

This Week’s Question: Over the past five years, has the gap between good and bad fantasy owners widened, narrowed, or stayed the same?

Let’s start by granting Mark’s premise: Information about the NFL is easier than ever for fantasy owners to access.

Admittedly, we still have coaches like John Fox who generally refuse to tip their hands concerning player injuries, etc. But on the whole, we have access in 2015 to more and better information than was the case in 2010. We are positively drowning in information (because anyone who attempts to read all the articles written each week about fantasy football won’t have time left over to watch the actual football games).

Since good information is the key to being competitive in FF, it seems fair to say that we have ALL gotten better at FF over the years. For instance, I’m much better at making quick decisions based on limited data than I was in the early years—partly because of my experience as a fantasy owner, but mainly because the quality of the limited data is so much better than it used to be.

In an absolute sense, then, we can say that fantasy owners are better than they used to be. (Think: A rising tide lifts all boats.)

But FF is competitive, so the absolute sense of improvement is far less important than the relative sense. If you’re a 10% better owner than you were five years ago, but the dominant owner in your league is 10% better than he used to be, then you haven’t really gained any ground. (Think: Some boats are faster than others, even if sea level is 100 meters higher than it used to be.)
The most obvious response to this question is that since the most important information is universally available, its availability hasn’t made any difference. Those who were once better at processing limited information are now better at processing abundant information.

But maybe that isn’t true. Maybe we’ve crossed a threshold at which certain kinds of bad decisions become almost impossible for bad owners to make (which suggests that the good owners have fewer and fewer ways to distinguish themselves from the pack). Or maybe we’ve crossed a threshold at which certain kinds of information processing require a level of time and attention that very few people can afford to give them (which suggests that the people at the top are pulling further and further away from the pack).

Put another way, do you think luck plays a more or less critical role in FF in 2015 than was the case in 2010? (Full disclosure: A reader named Jason has asked me to revisit the luck vs. skill debate in Q&A, and I hope he’ll approve of the way I’ve tried to do so without beating a dead horse.)

Responses can be emailed to me or posted directly to this column. My thanks (as always) go to those who chime in (whether I have space to include their remarks or not).

Survivor Pool Picks - Week 14 (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

#3: Cleveland over San Francisco (5-8, Cin, Phi, AZ, ATL, KC, SEA, SD, NE, DEN, GB, NYJ, CAR, Was)

Johnny Manziel gets another chance to lead his Dawg Pound this week after a two-game demotion to third string. He has been “warned” that there will be serious repercussions should he step out of line (which may mean that management is threatening to hide his shot glasses from him until the season is over). Assuming he does nothing to harm his status before Sunday’s game, look for him to exploit a weak 49ers defense that is a shell of its former self. While Blaine Gabbert has been an upgrade over Colin Kaepernick in recent weeks, the Niners are a different team on the road. Yes, they play in a very tough NFC West, but that’s nothing in comparison to Cleveland’s formidable foes in the AFC North. Look for Johnny Football to excite the home crowd and hook up with Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge as Cleveland edges past the once powerful Niners.

#2: Tampa Bay over New Orleans (10-3, GB, Balt, NE, SEA, NYG, MIN, AZ, STL, ATL, PHL, Jax, Cin, CHI)

Don’t look now, but the Bucs are in the hunt for a playoff spot behind the hard-nosed running of Doug Martin and Charles Sims and the surprisingly good decision-making of rookie quarterback Jameis Wilson. In the last meeting between these two teams, Tampa “shocked” the Saints with a 26-19 victory behind a balanced offensive attack and a tenacious defensive game plan that caused three turnovers. Drew Brees is feeling better after having his shoulder injured during that game, but Mark Ingram is expected to be in street clothes this week. There clearly is a changing of the guard in the NFC South this season, so don’t fight the trend. Take the Bucs as Lovie Smith makes a playoff push with his second NFC team.

#1: Buffalo at Philadelphia (8-5 NE, Mia, SEA, AZ, ATL, GB, STL, KC, NO, Cin, CAR, NYG, Pit)

Earlier this season most sports prognosticators expected the Eagles to dominate their division. Ahem. With a quarter of the season left to play, no team has emerged as dominant in the bizarre NFC East—a division that quickly moved from powerhouse to power-outage-house to plain old outhouse. Although Chip Kelly may find a way to put together a strong run at the end of the season, it’s more likely that Buffalo’s Shady McCoy (formerly a dominant Eagle RB) will come into the Linc with a “chip” on his shoulder. Last week, the Eagles impressed us all by taking advantage of Tom Brady, but the Bills have more talent and dynamism on their roster right now than the hobbled Pats. Unlike Brady, who has a limited running game, Tyrod Taylor can rely on the threat posed by his own legs and those of his running backs to open up holes in the secondary for the explosive Sammy Watkins. Take the Bills in an upset win on the road as McCoy reminds his friends and family that his old team would have been a lot better off with him than without.