Last Week’s Question: Are DFS
contests “raking” a small percentage of traditional
fantasy players out of their leagues?
In response to this query, one reader (Dan) quipped, “I don’t
have time to answer your silly questions! I’m about to miss
a deadline to submit my next DFS lineup.”
My question was dismissed in a more serious (though equally sarcastic)
way by readers such as Shelby, who observed:
Every time there’s a new development,
somebody has to become Chicken Little and claim the sky is falling.
If Mike Davis thinks the rise of fantasy football is going to be
the fall of fantasy football, then I think ‘Mike Davis’
must be Latin for Chicken Little.
Well, okay . . . but my claim wasn’t that traditional fantasy
football will die because of the popularity of DFS contests. I just
wanted to know if anyone else out there suspects that a significant
number of 12-team leagues have lost at least one owner to DFS-related
activities.
Although I didn’t get into this point in last week’s
column, perhaps I should have mentioned that DFS solves one of the
major problems in traditional leagues: the apathy/non-participation
of owners who have been eliminated from playoff contention by Week
10 or so. Just look through the archives of this column to see how
much effort commissioners have put into finding solutions (such
as weekly high-score payouts, etc.) to make sure that the level
of competitive engagement remains high through the end of the regular
fantasy season for all owners. If your main problem with traditional
FF is the way apathy taints competition at the end of the season,
why wouldn’t you bolt for the greener pastures of DFS, where
everyone is equally incentivized to put together the best possible
lineup each week?
That was an argument I expected to hear from at least one reader,
but that expectation was not met. In fact, I only received one response
from someone who conceded that DFS activities were getting in the
way of his traditional fantasy commitments. That person was Mike
Krueger, the owner/editor of FFToday, who admitted: “I cut
down my season-long league total from 13 last year to 8 this year
for [the] sole purpose of focusing on daily.” Unfortunately
for me, Krueger’s focus on traditional FF is still strong
enough for him to have kicked my booty in the FF Staff League in
Week 1.
I guess Krueger’s response may provide an indirect answer
to my question. Since I happen to interact with FF journalists more
than the average person, and since FF journalists are increasingly
paying attention to DFS as a subject worth writing about, maybe
it’s no surprise that as these folks shift their attention
from traditional leagues to DFS activities, people like me get a
disproportionate number of invitations to replace them in the leagues
they leave behind. In other words, maybe my suspicion that DFS is
siphoning some players from traditional leagues is true, but only
for the people in my own circles—not for the general public.
This Week’s Question: Should the
New PAT Rule Affect Kicker Deductions?
To understand the question I received from Jason, you need to know
about the rule change for PATs in 2015. Some of you are sick of
hearing about this change already, but anyone curious about the
precise details involved will benefit from this
article by Kevin Seifert. The upshot of the change, as Dan Hanzus
points out in a
more recent piece, is that we should expect more extra points
to be missed this season than ever before—roughly ten times
as many over the course of the season (up from 7.4 misses per season
between 2010 and 2014 to a projected 70 misses in 2015 based on
what we saw in Week 1).
The NFL rule change has the attention of the owners in Jason’s
league:
We give kickers no deduction for missed field
goals over 40 yards, a -1 deduction for missed field goals of 40
yards or less, and a -2 deduction for missed PATs. Since Ks only
get 1 point for making a PAT, that penalty was supposed to be steep
[when we instituted it] because misses were so rare. But with this
new rule, I’m already getting complaints from owners about
the -2 deduction. [Now that there’s nothing bizarre about
missing PATs,] some owners think we should change the penalty to
-1 for misses. I agree, but the season is already underway, and
the rule is in place. What should we do?
Survivor Pool Picks - Week 2 (Courtesy
of Matthew Schiff)
Trap Game: NY Jets at Indianapolis
This was the first time in three years that my Week 1 trap game
prediction didn’t come true. If not for a gift pass interference
call for the Cowboys, Eli Manning’s clock mismanagement
in the last two minutes, and a stunning comeback by Tony Romo
(who just happens to hold the most 4th quarter comebacks of any
quarterback since 2006), many Survival Pool contestants might
have been knocked out last week.
This week, I’m worried about a Colts team that looked rather
shaky in Buffalo against a NY J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets team that
is playing better than most expected because of the veteran leadership
of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall. The Jets are hardly
a pushover, and the Indianapolis defense was picked apart by Tyrod
Taylor, a fifth-year player who, before the 2015 season, had thrown
only 35 passes and completed 18 of them for 199 yards. In last
week’s game, he doubled his career production against a
Colts defense that was 11th overall in total defense in 2014.
Since T.Y. Hilton will be MIA for the next few weeks, Donte Moncrief
and the aging Andre Johnson will be called upon to serve as Andrew
Luck’s deadliest weapons for the Colts’ home opener.
While oddsmakers have the home team winning by a touchdown, it
may take some fourth quarter heroics for Luck to pull this one
out. As such, I say AVOID this game that normally would be your
lock of the week.
#3: Philadelphia over Dallas (1-0, Cin)
Those that have read my columns over the years know that I am
a Giants fan. It therefore pains me to pick between two teams
when I want to see both of them lose. However, this week Chip
Kelly shouldn’t have to wait until the second half to get
his Eagles on track, nor worry about coming up short in the last
few minutes. With a shaky secondary and the absence of playmaker
Dez Bryant (lost for 6-8 weeks with a broken foot), the task of
winning on the road at hostile Lincoln Field will be extremely
difficult for Dallas. Tony Romo will be hard-pressed to stretch
the field and rely on multiple running backs against a team that
will have the 2014 leading rusher and former Cowboy Demarco Murray
picking its defense (still compromised by injuries and suspensions)
apart. Barring some amazing heroics, or just some stupid team
management, look for Philadelphia to even their record to 1-1
against their division foes as they set their sights on San Francisco
and Super Bowl 50.
#2: Baltimore at Oakland (1-0 GB)
The Ravens went into Mile High and manhandled Peyton Manning—knocking
him down, rushing his throws, and only losing the game in the
second half because of an uncharacteristic interception thrown
by Joe Flacco in the third quarter that put Denver on top for
good. This week those same Ravens face Derek Carr, who is expected
to return under center after suffering a bruised hand and will
face this formidable defense in a game that should resemble last
week’s loss to the Ravens’ division rival Bengals.
While Latavius Murray is definitely an upgrade over Darren McFadden,
he most likely will find few running lanes in spite of the season-ending
injury to Terrell Suggs, the star of Baltimore’s defense.
Take the Ravens in a game that Baltimore needs to keep pace with
Cincinnati.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty Schiff)
#1: Miami at Jacksonville (1-0 NE)
The last time the Dolphins went 2-0 was 2013—and they had
high expectations that year. Unlike 2013, this year they will
have to do it by winning their first two games on the road. Strong-armed
quarterback Ryan Tannehill finally has enough weapons around him
in Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron, Lamar Miller and rookie Davante
Parker to give New England a run in what has become a very competitive
AFC East division and shouldn’t have the letdown that occurred
late that season. Jacksonville still is rebuilding after a 3-13
season, and Coach Gus Bradley needs to show improvement or risk
being let go after three short seasons at the helm. Unfortunately
for Bradley, the early schedule for 2015 is stacked against him.
Second year quarterback Blake Bortles has improved steadily during
his time in the NFL, but unlike Tannehill, he hardly has enough
quality weapons to scare any team, let alone a Dolphins squad
that is looking to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for Jacksonville
fans, it looks like it will be one more week before the Jaguars
face a team that isn’t a playoff contender (and get a legit
chance for their first win in 2015). Take the Fins on the road
in this battle of Florida, and think hard about using any team
that plays the Jags early this season for your survival pool pick.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
