Week 11
11/15/07
Last Week’s Question
In last week’s column, I
passed on Jeff’s concern about leagues that bar waiver wire
activity as a means to prevent passive trading late in the season.
It’s obvious why some leagues forbid owners to trade players
during (or even in the weeks leading up to) the playoffs. Owners
who are clearly out of the running can easily load up friendly teams
with talented players who won’t do their losing teams any
good.
If it’s clear in Week 15 that the Packers will be going
to the playoffs and the Vikings won’t, then we would all
cry “Foul!” if the Vikings lent Adrian Peterson to
Green Bay and issued a press release about the “pervasive
spirit of camaraderie that has always characterized the NFC North.”
But what if the Vikings simply cut Peterson at 2 in the morning
on the Tuesday before the Week 16 games and phoned the Packers
to say, “Sign him now—before anyone else wakes up
and notices he’s available”?
Unfortunately, some leagues have been burned by just this scenario.
There are rules to prevent collusive late-season trades, so owners
who are longer on ambition than integrity get around these rules
by urging friends to cut key players in the middle of the night,
when no one else is likely to see that Tom Brady or Antonio Gates
has suddenly become available on waivers.
In some cases, commissioners simply reverse these passive trades
conducted via waivers, but it can be difficult to prove collusion.
The owner of Tom Brady can say, “The Pats have the #1 seed
locked up, so I don’t think Brady is going to play more
than 2 quarters in Week 16—and not at all in Week 17.”
The owner of Gates can point out that the defenses the Chargers
will face in the last two weeks of the season have completely
shut down opposing tight ends all season—diminishing Gates’
value for the remainder of the season. The list of justifications
is endless. And when the commissioner says, “Okay, but you
cut Brady at 4:03 a.m., and your buddy’s team picked him
up at 4:06. Doesn’t that look fishy to you?”
Some people—I’ve known a few—could look a commissioner
in the eye under these circumstances and say, “I guess we’re
both like John Gruden. We just don’t need much sleep.”
“So you’re telling me it’s coincidence that
you cut the leading passer in the NFL in the middle of the night—and
your buddy picked him up a few minutes later?” the commissioner
might ask.
“Exactly,” a certain kind of player is capable of
responding—and the fact that he is visibly choking back
a laugh isn’t something that every commissioner knows how
to handle.
The upshot is that many leagues simply ban waiver activity at
a certain point in the season—since it’s so difficult
to prove collusion. In fact, one big-money league that I play
in (sponsored by AFFL) has this sort of rule in place all season
long. Once a player on my team is cut, he is off limits to all
teams for the remainder of the season. I picked up Bryant Johnson
(the Arizona wide-out) with a late pick in my draft. A few weeks
later, even though I still liked his potential in case of injury
to Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald, I had to make room for a
kicker—and Johnson was my most expendable player that week.
Now he’s off limits to everyone. Even if Boldin and Fitzgerald
both end up on IR for the remainder of the season, no one in my
league can snatch Johnson off waivers—and it’s all
because the league doesn’t want to deal with accusations
of passive collusion.
Jeff’s league appears to have a somewhat more forgiving
rule—since owners are allowed to pick up other owners’
rejects until a certain point late in the fantasy season. But
after that point, no waiver wire activity is allowed at all. On
the one hand, this decision prevents passive collusion. But on
the other hand, it prevents owners from addressing needs that
they might not be able to anticipate as they head into their fantasy
playoffs.
If Jeff only has room on his roster for 2 QBs and they are both
expected to miss Week 16 (when most fantasy championships occur)
due to injury, then he has to play his championship game without
a quarterback. I understand the desire to prevent collusion, but
there must be less drastic ways of achieving this result than
simply forbidding access to waivers.
Michael’s league takes the approach of trying to ensure
that no one wants to finish last:
An early trade deadline is just too limiting. Teams
and players continue to change their performance and strategy,
and certainly guys continue to get hurt. Trades are an integral
part of maintaining your team.
In our seasonal league, in order to combat any late season
shenanigans (and to combat hopeless teams just throwing in the
towel towards the end), we have a "loser's playoffs".
All teams that don't qualify for the playoffs have to play in
the loser playoffs. The loser of each matchup in the loser playoffs
advances. The ultimate loser has to buy all of the booze for
following year's draft.
This sounds like a great idea in certain leagues, but one obvious
limitation is that once a team has been eliminated from contention
for “worst” status, the owner might go the route of
waiver wire collusion. I’m not suggesting this is something
that Michael’s league—or even most leagues—should
worry about. However, leagues with this sort of concern might
want to consider the model adopted by Harold (since it keeps more
teams in contention for a longer period):
As fantasy seasons wear on, collusion is certainly an
issue that every fantasy commissioner must address. Also, there's
the problem of those teams who feel they no longer have a chance
to win simply not playing anymore -- which results in cheap victories
and skewed standings. Nothing is more irritating than to see a
main competitor winning a key game late in the year against someone
who isn't even submitting a lineup or is still starting his two
injured RB's.
I tackle both issues with my playoff format. In my view, the best
way to avoid most of these cases is to consistently have something
to play for, even if a specific team is winless. I divide our
league's playoffs into three brackets -- Champs, Contenders, and
Toilet Bowl. Our conferences are 12 teams, so the top four in
each conference advance to the Champs, the next four to the Contender's,
and the final four to the Toilet Bowl. Each bracket plays to a
winner, and each bracket has its own prize (Champs, of course,
is the largest). As an added incentive, I tie all the various
prizes into playoff performance -- prizes for weekly high points
during the playoffs, prizes for each victory, etc. This is our
fourth year with this format, and each year a team that has been
completely horrid during the regular season arises to make a run
in the playoffs, thus adding another element of fun to the season
(for example, last year a team was winless during the season --
0-12 -- but won three straight playoff games before losing in
the Toilet Bowl Finals). Because everyone has something to play
for, everyone keeps trying to improve their teams, and thus no
cheap victories and, in four years, only one attempt at collusion
(team A offered Peyton Manning for Team B's kicker, backup QB,
and tickets to the Chief's game -- his argument was that the kicker
was one of the highest scoring players in the league!).
An additional tactic we use to discourage collusion is the way
we run our waivers during the playoffs. Because the NFL now plays
Thursday night games the same weeks as our playoffs, it works
well. During our regular season we do worst-to-first waivers until
Wednesday morning—then first come first serve until noon
(Central Time) Sunday, but during the playoffs first come first
serve is eliminated. This forces teams to wait a full week to
pick up players dropped on waivers, thus eliminating incentive
to try and sneak one through on everyone.
Of course, even Harold’s measures aren’t enough to prevent those
who are truly determined to cheat. Mike has a suggestion that
is particularly appropriate for leagues in which the owners a)
don’t know each other very well or b) know each other well
enough to suspect that one or two folks aren’t trustworthy:
That is kind of crazy not being able to start a QB in
the championship if they both get hurt or can't play for some
reason. There is a way to prevent collusion and still be able
to add players in the playoffs. In my league when a team is eliminated
from playoff contention or eliminated from the playoffs his roster
is frozen. He can't drop/add or trade.
I realize it’s probably easier to program software to freeze
ALL waiver wire transactions at a certain point, but I like Mike’s
point about allowing access to the players who haven’t been
dropped from other teams. I grant that it’s possible to
use the waiver wire as a means to the end of collusion—but
only if the player being acquired on the wire used to be on someone
else’s team.
Don’s solution allows for even greater flexibility:
Our league, which has been around since 1990, says in
order to be eligible for the play-offs, a player has to be on
the roster prior to the start of the least regular season game
(Week 13). During the play-offs if a player is injured and listed
as questionable or worse, an owner may make a pick-up. Our trade
deadline is prior to the start of week 10's games.
Craig’s solution is even more flexible (and yet still provides a reasonable
solution to the problem—particularly for those willing to
explore keeper leagues):
Jeff’s league is kind of harsh in not allowing
any type of pickups at all. I understand having a cutoff week
on trades (around weeks 8-10), but it makes no sense to go to
the extremes and possibly have a player with an empty roster spot
because of something he cannot control. If all of the Patriot
QBs (Brady down to whoever is on the practice squad) took a crazy
night on the town the week before the playoffs and accidentally
drove off the side of a cliff, do you think the NFL wouldn’t
let them put somebody under center because it was too late in
the year?
For situations like the one described, I see no reason why a waiver
pick could not be used and have the owners examine any waiver
transaction like a trade, with possible veto power if something
fishy is up.
I would think non-keeper leagues would have this issue come up
more than keepers (since players on non-playoff teams have no
more value), so I would suggest if this comes up in your non-keeper
league a lot then you should transition over to a keeper style
to help offset this. It may not stop all types of collusion but
it can’t hurt. At least you won’t be seeing players
like LT, Brady, TO dropped to waivers a couple weeks before the
playoffs. Combined with the owner veto ability stated above should
be more than adequate to prevent cheating.
I know some may want to stay non-keeper (I had been so for the
longest time), but I’m sure you can modify your league rules
just enough where it won’t discourage people from playing
next year (I personally like allowing just 1 player to be locked
from previous roster).
My thanks to everyone who wrote in on this topic. I have a
sneaking suspicion that I may not get such extensive feedback on
this week’s rather esoteric question. But what can I say?
I’m a sucker for esoteric questions. This
Week’s Question
My week 11 question comes from a reader named Chris, who wants to
know about “special bonuses” for record-setting performances
that leagues may offer. Does your league have any idiosyncratic
scoring rules akin to the one Chris mentions below?
In the league I'm in (14-team redraft), we have a pretty
standard scoring system. However, we also have a little-used clause
that says any owner gets a 10-point bonus (over and above the
regular points for yardage) if one of their active players sets
the NFL single-game rushing record. (I suspect our commissioner,
a Saints fan, implemented it a few years ago, when the Deuce was
tearing it up in N.O.). Of course, we hadn't worried about this
in a while -- until last week. I'm wondering how many other leagues
have special bonuses for players who set records, and what those
bonuses are.
Matthew starts by catching us up on what we’ve missed:
For the last few weeks Mike and I have seemed to have some technical
issues in getting my picks in—which is probably for the
best for the readers of this column. Last week my number one pick,
like 50% of my Survival Pool contestants, was the New Orleans
Saints. I mentioned in my picks (which never arrived) that this
game had the makings of an upset but that it was probably not
going to happen. As such, my perfect record for my number one
pick is now gone. That said, let’s get to our picks.
Trap Game: Washington at Dallas:
Oh how the Redskins would love to have last week’s game
back. And nothing would be better than beating their hated rivals
the Cowboys in their own stadium to get a little closer in the
division standings. The last time these two teams met (in November
of 2006), the Redskins won the game 22 -19. These teams have each
gotten better since that meeting, but Joe Gibbs and company still
are looking to prove to everyone that they are good enough to
make the playoffs. Look for this game to be a lot closer than
what the odds makers have this at, and don’t be shocked
if the Redskins pull this one out.
#3: NY Giants at Detroit (8-2):
Detroit is really banged up coming out of their loss to the Cardinals
this week, and it is very possible that both Kevin Jones and Jon
Kitna may not play. If that happens the Lions defense will have
a very long day trying to stop Brandon Jacobs and his 6’4”
264-pound frame from running over them in the third and fourth
quarters. And to top that off, Steve Spagnuolo has got his defense
playing pretty well over the last seven games with rookie Aaron
Ross making some spectacular interceptions and defenses against
the pass. However, if Jon Kitna plays, this secondary can be beat
by tall and fast receivers like Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.
#2: Philadelphia over Miami (5-5):
The Dolphins are becoming the punching bag of the NFL, and this
week they get no rest. The Eagles find themselves fighting to
stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC even though the NFC East is
all but locked up by the Dallas Cowboys and their win over the
Giants. Brian Westbrook should continue his record year and just
might finally get the recognition that he deserves. Miami’s
defense will most likely again be without Zack Thomas, and without
him Donovan McNabb should not have to pass a lot as Westbrook
should break into the secondary both running and catching swing
passes in the flat.
#1: Indianapolis over Kansas City (9-1):
Indy has lost two games in a row, but three in a row is out of
the question for last year’s Super Bowl champs. While Priest
Holmes is back in the lineup, this is not the Priest Holmes that
ran for almost 5800 yards over three seasons in his prime. Brody
Croyle will be at quarterback for the Chiefs this week, and even
though the Colt defense isn’t completely healthy, Indy should
be able to confuse the second-year player from Alabama. Look for
the Colts to get back in the win column this week.
Paul chimes in as well:
Last week I went 2-1 and completely whiffed on the trap game.
My misstep concerned the Saints’ loss to the Rams, which
may have ended a lot of LMS seasons. Non-division home favorites
were 1-1 last week (48-16 for the year). The good news this week
is that the bye weeks are over and you have 4 more teams to consider
and/or worry about.
#1. PIT over NYJ (9-1, Used
SEA, CHI, BAL, IND, DAL, SDC, WAS,NEP, TBB, NOS)
The Jets are coming off a bye and have only won one game—and
that was over the hapless dolphins. Pittsburgh got a wake up call
last week as they came from
behind to beat a decent Cleveland squad. Generally, I don’t
like taking road teams, but there are a lot of mediocre home teams
this week, and I think it’s better to take a good team on
the road than a mediocre home team. The Steelers will take care
of the Jets this week.
#2. GBP over CAR (8-2 Used
IND, DEN, NEP, sdc, TEN, sea, DAL, NYG, ATL, PIT)
The Panthers have lost 3 in a row and still have me mystified
with their 4-1 road record and 0-4 home record. The Packers have
won 4 in a row and are rolling along. I don’t see Carolina
and the 44-year-old Testaverde (happy birthday, Vinny) slowing
the Pack down.
#3. DAL over WAS (10-0 Used
SDC, JAX, PIT, NEP, HOU, GBP, NYG, IND, WAS, SEA)
Except for the Buffalo disaster/escape on Monday Night Football
and the loss to this season’s Super Bowl champs (the Patriots),
the Cowboys have won all their games by 10 points or more. Washington,
on the other hand, is 1-2 against division rivals. Oddly, since
their bye week, the Redskins have alternated winning and losing
the last 6 games. That trend would have you thinking that they
should win this game after losing last week. Not in the big D.
Trap Game: I’ll leave
those picks to Matt. He’s much better at that than I am.
Even so, I do have a hunch about Miami. I don’t know why.
For responses to this week's fantasy
question or to share your LMS picks, please email
me no later than 10 a.m. EST on Wednesdays during the football
season.
Readers who want to have their fantasy questions answered live,
on the air, by Mike Davis are invited to tune into FFEXradio
on Friday afternoons at 5:00 p.m. EST. Archived
programs are also available. |