Touchdown Efficiency - 2008 - Rinku Dhawan

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Rinku Dhawan

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Touchdown Efficiency
8/2/08

Fantasy football has become very complex. The number of styles, drafts, strategies, scoring systems, and leagues has become exponential. We filter a lot of statistics to compile our rankings. Among the varying numbers we digest are yardage, receptions, completions, completion percentages, and tackles. The highest regarded statistic is still touchdowns. Who is scoring touchdowns is still the ultimate factor in ranking players. We even have leagues and scoring systems solely based on that number. But who really is scoring touchdowns? Who are the players that get to the end zone more often than others? Who are the players you can count on to get 6 points? This is an attempt to discover those players, and to define some terms to categorize those players. It is the touchdowns that keep fans in the stands, and player paychecks at a premium level. To the fantasy football player, touchdowns command the respect for players who pile them up, and propel our teams to victory.

Methodology

First, we will establish a nomenclature for the analysis. The sample size was determined as 21 running backs and 21 receivers of recent times with established track records as ‘top’ or ‘stud’ players, and/or with established recent longevity. [The receiver list was comprised of 19 wide receivers, with 2 tight ends—Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez—also included. In addition, two notable first year players—Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) — were excluded due to limited number of games played.] Total games (G) and touchdowns (TD) were used, as well as touchdown games (TD G), defined as the number of games in which a player scores a touchdown. These 3 components were used to compute 2 new factors: touchdowns per game (TD/G), and our main term, touchdown efficiency, labeled as touchdown game percentage (TD G %), the percentage of total games in which a player scores touchdowns.

Data

Table 1
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Larry Johnson	56	31	56	55%	1.00
3	Shaun Alexander	112	71	119	60%	0.94
4	Marion Barber	28	19	32	59%	0.88
5	Maurice Jones-Drew	26	21	31	68%	0.84
6	Clinton Portis	67	43	84	51%	0.80
7	Joseph Addai	23	15	30	50%	0.77
8	Edgerrin James	88	62	128	48%	0.69
9	Steven Jackson	36	28	57	49%	0.63
10	Rudi Johnson	49	37	79	47%	0.62
11	Brian Westbrook	50	34	85	40%	0.59
12	Deuce McAllister	48	32	84	38%	0.57
13	Jamal Lewis	58	43	106	41%	0.55
14	Fred Taylor	69	54	127	43%	0.54
15	Reggie Bush	15	10	28	36%	0.54
16	Willis McGahee	32	24	61	39%	0.52
17	Brandon Jacobs	22	18	42	43%	0.52
18	Willie Parker	23	17	46	37%	0.50
19	Laurence Maroney	13	11	27	41%	0.48
20	Ronnie Brown	15	12	35	34%	0.43
21	Frank Gore	18	13	45	29%	0.40
		977	672	1413	47%	0.66
					10%	0.20

Table 1 outlines running backs, sorted by TD/G. We can see that the average of these players is about 2/3 TD per game (.66). Players highlighted in green represent production above average; blue represents more than 1 deviation above average; and red shows ‘king Tomlinson’ more than 2 deviations above average.

Tomlinson is the king, averaging more than a TD per game over his career, and on pace to challenge the TD legends of the game (we will get to that later).
Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are not far behind, using a powerful stretch of seasons to accrue huge scoring counts. Clinton Portis also used two big seasons in Denver to rank highly overall.
3 young players with considerably smaller samples of games are in the mix at the top: Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Joseph Addai. It will be interesting to see their progress as they accumulate more career games.

Table 2
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
2	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
3	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
4	Antonio Gates	41	31	62	50%	0.66
5	Marques Colston	19	14	30	47%	0.63
6	Braylon Edwards	25	19	42	45%	0.60
7	Larry Fitzgerald	34	29	60	48%	0.57
8	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	32	28	60	47%	0.53
9	Roy Williams	28	21	55	38%	0.51
10	Torry Holt	71	60	142	42%	0.50
11	Chad Johnson	49	36	108	33%	0.45
12	Reggie Wayne	47	39	104	38%	0.45
13	Plaxico Burress	51	42	118	36%	0.43
14	Chris Chambers	47	38	110	35%	0.43
15	Anquan Boldin	29	24	68	35%	0.43
16	Javon Walker	30	24	72	33%	0.42
17	Steve Smith (CAR)	37	31	92	34%	0.40
18	Tony Gonzalez	66	50	174	29%	0.38
19	Andre Johnson	25	22	70	31%	0.36
20	Donald Driver	38	34	128	27%	0.30
21	Derrick Mason	47	40	170	24%	0.28
		1095	850	2167	40%	0.50
					9%	0.15

Table 2 shows the receivers, with the same color coding ranges. The average of this group is 1/2 TD per game (.50), somewhat leaning towards the fantasy slogan “running backs score relatively more than receivers do”. What do we see here?

The “ultra-3” (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison) dominates the position in scoring.
Antonio Gates is knocking at their door, but with a sample of games ~1/3 of those players.
Derrick Mason and Donald Driver are expected to be lower on the listing, as their games have been predicated more on high reception counts than scoring over their respective careers.
Hyped players such as Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, Chad Johnson, and Anquan Boldin fall below the average in per game scoring.

Table 3
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Maurice Jones-Drew	26	21	31	68%	0.84
3	Shaun Alexander	112	71	119	60%	0.94
4	Marion Barber	28	19	32	59%	0.88
5	Larry Johnson	56	31	56	55%	1.00
6	Clinton Portis	67	43	84	51%	0.80
7	Joseph Addai	23	15	30	50%	0.77
8	Steven Jackson	36	28	57	49%	0.63
9	Edgerrin James	88	62	128	48%	0.69
10	Rudi Johnson	49	37	79	47%	0.62
11	Brandon Jacobs	22	18	42	43%	0.52
12	Fred Taylor	69	54	127	43%	0.54
13	Laurence Maroney	13	11	27	41%	0.48
14	Jamal Lewis	58	43	106	41%	0.55
15	Brian Westbrook	50	34	85	40%	0.59
16	Willis McGahee	32	24	61	39%	0.52
17	Deuce McAllister	48	32	84	38%	0.57
18	Willie Parker	23	17	46	37%	0.50
19	Reggie Bush	15	10	28	36%	0.54
20	Ronnie Brown	15	12	35	34%	0.43
21	Frank Gore	18	13	45	29%	0.40
		977	672	1413	47%	0.66
					11%	0.20

Table 4
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
2	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
3	Antonio Gates	41	31	62	50%	0.66
4	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
5	Larry Fitzgerald	34	29	60	48%	0.57
6	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	32	28	60	47%	0.53
7	Marques Colston	19	14	30	47%	0.63
8	Braylon Edwards	25	19	42	45%	0.60
9	Torry Holt	71	60	142	42%	0.50
10	Roy Williams	28	21	55	38%	0.51
11	Reggie Wayne	47	39	104	38%	0.45
12	Plaxico Burress	51	42	118	36%	0.43
13	Anquan Boldin	29	24	68	35%	0.43
14	Chris Chambers	47	38	110	35%	0.43
15	Steve Smith (CAR)	37	31	92	34%	0.40
16	Chad Johnson	49	36	108	33%	0.45
17	Javon Walker	30	24	72	33%	0.42
18	Andre Johnson	25	22	70	31%	0.36
19	Tony Gonzalez	66	50	174	29%	0.38
20	Donald Driver	38	34	128	27%	0.30
21	Derrick Mason	47	40	170	24%	0.28
		1095	850	2167	40%	0.50
					9%	0.15

Tables 3 and 4 show the running backs and receivers ranked by TD G%. Now we can see the likelihood of a player scoring touchdowns, or their touchdown efficiency. Running backs score ~47% of their games, with receivers slightly behind at a rate ~40%.

Other Observations:

Perennial 1st round drafted running backs like Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, and Rudi Johnson merit their selections, as they produce above the average within the first deviation. Notice how stalwart Edgerrin James continues to place in the top half of both lists, a testament to his rugged yet productive career.
Young stars Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber again are near the top with ‘king Tomlinson’, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson. In a short amount of time, they have maximized their game opportunities and scored a lot of touchdowns. They remain with top-shelf rush offenses.
Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, and Willie Parker score well below the average, accounting for a TD in only ~1/3 of their games.
Highly ranked and rated Brian Westbrook has flimsy touchdown efficiency; he clearly merits his rankings based on yardage and receptions.
Receivers like Reggie Wayne, Roy Williams, and Torry Holt hover near the position average of ~40% efficiency.
Highly ranked and drafted players like Steve Smith and Chad Johnson fall well below the position average, and do not return ‘bang-for-the-buck’. Both players hover at the 33% efficiency level, or only ~1/3 of their games are they reaching the end zone. Specifically for Johnson, he has scored in only 8 of his past 32 games (25%).
Only Randy Moss and Terrell Owens can compete with the top5 running backs at touchdown efficiency greater than 55% of games played.

Results and Conclusions

The receivers in the sampled data scored ~.50 TD per game, which was 30% less than the running backs, at ~.66TD per game. Their touchdown efficiencies were closer, with running backs averaging ~47%, and the sampled receivers ~40% of their games, an only 17% difference. Below are the combined data of running backs and receivers, so that we may get a broader picture of these skill players and their touchdown efficiency.

RBs/WRs Combined
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Larry Johnson	56	31	56	55%	1.00
3	Shaun Alexander	112	71	119	60%	0.94
4	Marion Barber	28	19	32	59%	0.88
5	Maurice Jones-Drew	26	21	31	68%	0.84
6	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
7	Clinton Portis	67	43	84	51%	0.80
8	Joseph Addai	23	15	30	50%	0.77
9	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
10	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
11	Edgerrin James	88	62	128	48%	0.69
12	Antonio Gates	41	31	62	50%	0.66
13	Marques Colston	19	14	30	47%	0.63
14	Steven Jackson	36	28	57	49%	0.63
15	Rudi Johnson	49	37	79	47%	0.62
16	Braylon Edwards	25	19	42	45%	0.60
17	Brian Westbrook	50	34	85	40%	0.59
18	Deuce McAllister	48	32	84	38%	0.57
19	Larry Fitzgerald	34	29	60	48%	0.57
20	Jamal Lewis	58	43	106	41%	0.55
21	Fred Taylor	69	54	127	43%	0.54
22	Reggie Bush	15	10	28	36%	0.54
23	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	32	28	60	47%	0.53
24	Willis McGahee	32	24	61	39%	0.52
25	Brandon Jacobs	22	18	42	43%	0.52
26	Roy Williams	28	21	55	38%	0.51
27	Torry Holt	71	60	142	42%	0.50
28	Willie Parker	23	17	46	37%	0.50
29	Laurence Maroney	13	11	27	41%	0.48
30	Chad Johnson	49	36	108	33%	0.45
31	Reggie Wayne	47	39	104	38%	0.45
32	Plaxico Burress	51	42	118	36%	0.43
33	Ronnie Brown	15	12	35	34%	0.43
34	Chris Chambers	47	38	110	35%	0.43
35	Anquan Boldin	29	24	68	35%	0.43
36	Javon Walker	30	24	72	33%	0.42
37	Steve Smith (CAR)	37	31	92	34%	0.40
38	Frank Gore	18	13	45	29%	0.40
39	Tony Gonzalez	66	50	174	29%	0.38
40	Andre Johnson	25	22	70	31%	0.36
41	Donald Driver	38	34	128	27%	0.30
42	Derrick Mason	47	40	170	24%	0.28
						0.58
						0.19

RBs/WRs Combined
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Maurice Jones-Drew	26	21	31	68%	0.84
3	Shaun Alexander	112	71	119	60%	0.94
4	Marion Barber	28	19	32	59%	0.88
5	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
6	Larry Johnson	56	31	56	55%	1.00
7	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
8	Clinton Portis	67	43	84	51%	0.80
9	Joseph Addai	23	15	30	50%	0.77
10	Antonio Gates	41	31	62	50%	0.66
11	Steven Jackson	36	28	57	49%	0.63
12	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
13	Edgerrin James	88	62	128	48%	0.69
14	Larry Fitzgerald	34	29	60	48%	0.57
15	Rudi Johnson	49	37	79	47%	0.62
16	Marques Colston	19	14	30	47%	0.63
17	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	32	28	60	47%	0.53
18	Braylon Edwards	25	19	42	45%	0.60
19	Brandon Jacobs	22	18	42	43%	0.52
20	Fred Taylor	69	54	127	43%	0.54
21	Torry Holt	71	60	142	42%	0.50
22	Laurence Maroney	13	11	27	41%	0.48
23	Jamal Lewis	58	43	106	41%	0.55
24	Brian Westbrook	50	34	85	40%	0.59
25	Willis McGahee	32	24	61	39%	0.52
26	Roy Williams	28	21	55	38%	0.51
27	Deuce McAllister	48	32	84	38%	0.57
28	Reggie Wayne	47	39	104	38%	0.45
29	Willie Parker	23	17	46	37%	0.50
30	Reggie Bush	15	10	28	36%	0.54
31	Plaxico Burress	51	42	118	36%	0.43
32	Anquan Boldin	29	24	68	35%	0.43
33	Chris Chambers	47	38	110	35%	0.43
34	Ronnie Brown	15	12	35	34%	0.43
35	Steve Smith (CAR)	37	31	92	34%	0.40
36	Chad Johnson	49	36	108	33%	0.45
37	Javon Walker	30	24	72	33%	0.42
38	Andre Johnson	25	22	70	31%	0.36
39	Frank Gore	18	13	45	29%	0.40
40	Tony Gonzalez	66	50	174	29%	0.38
41	Donald Driver	38	34	128	27%	0.30
42	Derrick Mason	47	40	170	24%	0.28
					43%
					11%

The combined positions results were players scoring ~.58 TD per game, with touchdown efficiency ~43% of games. Highlighting shows the groups of players performing within 1 deviation of the average level, above 1 but below 2 deviations above the average, and at the extremely rare more than 2 deviations above average (a category reserved for ‘king Tomlinson’, although Maurice Jones-Drew did sneak in the back door on a small number of career games). We can grasp an idea of who is performing relative to their consensus ranking or rating. There are also clear examples of players at both positions that are underperforming relative to hype and draft position.

In the end, the running back position still does not deliver an overwhelmingly dominant performance of touchdown efficiency [as you can see, 12 of 21 (~57%) running backs sampled placed above the combined positions efficiency average]. Similarly, the receivers were better represented than fantasy perception would have you believe [8 of 21 (~40%) receivers sampled placed above the combined positions efficiency average]. Furthermore, there is disparity from the consensus rankings of top20 running backs and their touchdown efficiency, with top10 names like Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, and Willis McGahee producing poor touchdown efficiency results. The ultra wide receivers (Randy Moss and Terrell Owens) can indeed be named in the same breath with mammoth touchdown performers like LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Marion Barber, and Maurice Jones-Drew. This list can be shortened: two of them—Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson—are washed up and have a precarious situation; the other two—Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber—are very young with small numbers of games played.

Discussion

Touchdown efficiency, calculated here as a function of percentage of games in which a player scores touchdowns versus games played, can be a useful tool to analyze and assess fantasy players. It can be especially effective to compare players of different positions, since most scoring systems have similar parameters for both running backs and receivers; thus, we can pair them together in this analysis and discussion, and elucidate the misconceptions and notions we as fantasy players carry regarding statistics and players.

We are privileged to be in the midst of some of the greatest touchdown makers in history during this current age of football. How do the current stars stack up versus the ‘legends’ of reality and fantasy football?

Table 7
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
3	Emmitt Smith	175	120	211	57%	0.83
4	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
5	Marshall Faulk	136	85	162	52%	0.84
6	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
7	Jerry Rice	208	144	303	48%	0.69
8	Cris Carter	131	95	210	45%	0.62

Table 8
	Player	TD	TD G	G	TD G %	TD/G
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	129	77	111	69%	1.16
2	Marshall Faulk	136	85	162	52%	0.84
3	Emmitt Smith	175	120	211	57%	0.83
4	Randy Moss	125	88	154	57%	0.81
5	Terrell Owens	131	95	173	55%	0.76
6	Marvin Harrison	123	85	175	49%	0.70
7	Jerry Rice	208	144	303	48%	0.69
8	Cris Carter	131	95	210	45%	0.62

Outlined in Tables 7 and 8 are some of the top scoring players in the all-time history of football. As fantasy players, we remember the storied exclamations of broadcasters and announcers alike: “All he does, is catch touchdowns”; “The best hands in football”; “The Marshall Plan”; “How ‘bout them Cowboys”; “J-R-Superstar!”

Table 8 demonstrates that these top5 receivers all lag in touchdowns per game; however, they fare admirably based upon touchdown efficiency, as seen in Table 7, where Randy Moss and Terrell Owens stand among LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, and Marshall Faulk.

One thing to note here is the weight of games played. Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, and Emmitt Smith all have more games played than the other players in the table [a significant number more in the case of the ‘GOAT’ (Greatest Of All Time), which is a testament to his ultimate longevity and production]. It is staggering to realize that Randy Moss and Terrell Owens have amassed their production in ONLY HALF of the number of Jerry Rice’s games! They still have half of a career to go! Can players maintain such a dominant rate of touchdown efficiency as they age? LaDainian Tomlinson himself has played only 1/3 the number of games of Jerry Rice. He plays the running back position, which is more punishing and difficult to maintain a long career (Emmitt Smith’s 211 games are daunting). His number of career touches (carries and receptions) has already started to become an issue of discussion. Tomlinson is a 29 year old running back: can he maintain his current touchdown efficiency rate? How long will it be before the rising number of games begins to dilute his dominating efficiency? Only time can tell. Fantasy players can only sit back and enjoy the show of the current juggernauts, such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison. We can remember the great touchdown makers of yesteryear such as Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Cris Carter, and especially Jerry Rice.

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