There are many factors that can lead to incongruency between a player’s production levels from season to season. One is a change in offensive scheme. If a team switches from the West Coast offense to a power running game, like the 49ers have, their running backs should be primed to put up bigger numbers. Another factor is personnel changes, whether at the player’s specific position, or in the offense at large. If a team imports a stud running back, it makes sense that their receivers’ numbers should drop. Finally, age always comes into play, whether it is a case of a player simply getting older, or a young guy coming into his own.

With that in mind, here is a list of potentially under and overvalued players for the 2006 season. Remember, value is relative to draft position—good players can simply go too high, and vice versa.

Overvalued

Tiki Barber (RB, Giants)—Aside from being a nice guy, Tiki is a pretty solid—if not underappreciated—running back, and has been for years. He had an unbelievable December that saw him rush for 724 yards and five touchdowns including an effort where he absolutely embarrassed the Chiefs secondary. However, it will be nearly impossible for him to duplicate that performance in 2006. Barber posted a 5.2 ypc in 2005—his career average is 4.4 ypc—and he had a career-high in his 9th season. Do not expect the 31-year old Barber to repeat his 2005 performance.

Perhaps more important is Barber will not get enough carries in the red zone to justify taking him among the first few running backs. In 2005, Brandon Jacobs ran for seven touchdowns from inside the opposing 20-yard line. Barber had five. Expect that trend to continue. Barber sits behind the “Big Three” of Johnson, Tomlinson, and Alexander. When age, durability, and redzone carries are taken into consideration, a case can be made for selecting backs like Rudi Johnson, Stephen Jackson, Clinton Portis, and even Lamont Jordan ahead of Barber. .

Jason Witten (TE, Cowboys)—Witten’s first two years as a starter have been solid. In 2004, he put up nearly 1,000 yards receiving with six touchdowns. He did nothing in 2005 to suggest the previous year was an aberration—he tallied the same number of touchdown catches although he posted lower totals in receptions and yardage.

That said, the Cowboys’ passing offense features two new targets that figure to cut into Witten’s numbers, perhaps significantly. One is a little-known wide receiver acquisition by way of Philadelphia. The other is draft pick Anthony Fasano, a tight end selected out of Notre Dame. Bill Parcells has hinted at similarities between Fasano and Mark Bavarro. This should not be taken lightly—Parcells’ man-crush on Bavarro is well documented. It appears the Cowboys plan to use a two-tight end attack frequently this year. Those facts, coupled with a healthy Julius Jones, are setting Witten owners up for a letdown, despite his solid numbers in the past two campaigns.

Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin (WR, Cardinals)—Both Arizona wideouts are impressive talents, and both put up ridiculous numbers in 2005. Boldin and Fitzgerald each went over the 100-catch mark, and both had around 1,400 receiving yards. As a result of their jaw-dropping stats last season, many publications have the two Cardinals ranked in the top ten or twelve receivers available. While their talent makes a repeat performance possible, it is more likely for both players to experience a drop in production and be unable to justify their preseason rankings. The reason: Edgerrin James.

James gives the Cardinals something they haven’t had—ever: A top-shelf running back, capable of carrying a team’s offensive load. While the pass-happy offensive gameplan of Denny Green won’t disappear altogether, the Cardinals will throw less. After all, they may actually run the ball.

Arizona’s ground game in 2005 was an absolute disaster. They ranked at the bottom of literally every important rushing category: yards per carry, total yards, yards per game, attempts—the list goes on. They simply didn’t run because they couldn’t. Larquan Fitzboldin was one of the main beneficiaries of that incompetence. The other was Neil Rackers who before his record-breaking 2005 season, may have been best known as “That Guy Who Wore Mittens When He Kicked For The Bengals.” Seriously…mittens!!! The radio announcers in Pittsburgh actually made fun of him on-air. It is for that reason alone that I did not pick him up last year.

Enter Edgerrin James, a guy that more than quadrupled the yards of the Cardinals leading rusher JJ Arrington in 2005. Edge had twelve touchdowns, five of which came in the red zone. The Cards? Two touchdowns, total. It is impossible to think that his presence alone won’t result in a decline in Fitzboldin’s numbers.

Couple that with the fact that Kurt Warner is one stubbed thumb away from ceding to Matt Leinart (assuming Leinart eventually shows up to camp and is…ahem…medically fit after his offseason hook-up with Paris Hilton). For all his talents, Leinart is still a rookie quarterback, and that fact alone will result in a greater reliance on Edge and less emphasis on the superstar receivers. Both will put up good numbers regardless, but buyers beware.

Undervalued

Frank Gore (RB, 49ers)—With Barlow being shipped off to New York, Frank Gore figures to be the main beneficiary—statistically at least—of head coach Mike Nolan’s decision to move away from the rhythm of the West Coast offense in favor of a more integrated gameplan built around the running back position. Gore will benefit from a rebuilt offensive line—Jeremy Newberry and Jonas Jennings are both back from injury, and Larry Allen signed on as one of the tackles during the offseason.

Both coaches and fans alike have taken notice of Gore's athleticism and work ethic. The one worrisome issue with Gore is he spent the offseason rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Barlow, meanwhile, had a history of inconsistency and has been dogged by a reputation as a soft, hesitant runner.

Gore performed well in limited duty during the 2005 season, rushing for nearly five yards per carry. Additionally, he is another year removed from the ACL problems that plagued him at the University of Miami. Given the early returns on his performance from camp, his coach’s comments, and his team’s newfound commitment to the running game, he is worth taking a chance on as a second running back and has the potential to perform beyond that slot.

Roddy White (WR, Falcons)—Anyone on the receiving end of passes from Michael Vick, other than Alge Crumpler, should be looked at with a discerning eye. There’s no sense in using this space to deconstruct Vick as a passer—there’s a good chance that NFL Live is doing that as you read this, anyways. Putting it bluntly, the guy has had his problems.

Sometime soon, however, the proverbial light is going to come on, and Roddy White’s value as a pass catcher will skyrocket. However, as it stands, he is worth a look, at least as a third receiver, based on his own merit. White’s speed and size earned him a spot on the first round of the 2005 draft out of Alabama-Birmingham. However, observers from Falcons camp have said that White’s route running has improved greatly, and that he has a definite edge over Michael Jenkins, another former first round selection.

Additionally, Brian Finneran, one of Vick’s favorite targets, recent was lost for the year with a knee injury. Finneran’s bad luck figures to be White’s good fortune. Many of the balls thrown to Finneran, logically at least, will go to White.

So, don’t be totally scared away by his quarterback—White has shown potential to contribute as a fantasy receiver regardless. And, in the event that Vick makes the leap White could be a legitimate steal.

Jon Kitna (QB – Lions)—Kitna falls in the same category as Rackers for me. Years of watching him periodically embarrass himself as a Bengal have left it almost impossible for me to take him seriously. I grew up in Pittsburgh, and for the most part the Steelers had their way with the guy. Even when he passed for 400-plus yards against them in 2001, there was always something about him that I did not like at all.

That said, during the playoffs last year, my opinion changed…well, at least a little bit. Carson Palmer goes down with a knee injury and in comes Kitna. It was easy to think, as a Steelers fan, that the game was in the bag—years of experience preceded me with this conclusion. However, Kitna kept the Bengals in the game with skill, guts, and a decent amount of mobility. He almost pulled it out. Fast-forward a few months, and Kitna is Detroit as the triggerman for an attack led by Mark Martz, an offensive super-genius (just ask him).

Everyone knows Martz’s style; he uses multiple receiver sets, loves to throw the ball both downfield and to his running backs, and has no problem getting in a shootout. Kevin Jones spent the offseason in Arizona improving his pass-catching skills and conditioning. Roy Williams has proven to be an impressive talent despite a disappointing 2005 season.

Word out of camp is that Charles Rogers showed up in better shape than ever before, which of course will make his broken wrist in Week Three all the more depressing. And Mike Williams has yet to succeed in his attempt to eat himself into a shot at tight end. Still, all those factors suggest that the Lions should be much improved in 2006 and Kitna owners could greatly benefit in the end. As long as Kitna can play smart football, he and the rest of the Lions offense will post some big numbers.