Considering the lack of quality depth around him, Marcus Mariota
had a good rookie year. The Titans have made it their goal to
improve the supporting cast on offense and they’ve certainly made
an effort at the running back position. The optimism is being
fueled by the offense’s moniker of #ExoticSmashmouth and true
battles are being played out at both the running back and wide
receiver positions. The offensive line was helped by the No.8
pick in this year’s draft, Jack Conklin. He’s being deployed at
right tackle while free agent acquisition Ben Jones is viewed
as an upgrade at the Center position. On the outside, Tennessee
added the dynamic Rishard Mathews to veteran Kendall Wright and
developing Dorial Green-Beckham. The outlook for this trio is
promising but somebody will need to step into a playmaking role
in order for Mariota to emerge as a worthy fantasy starter. The
improvements to the running game should also translate into more
scoring drives and potentially less mistakes by the quarterback.
As a result, it’s fair to project more consistency and a few more
touchdowns out of Mariota’s sophomore campaign. Matt
Cassel will take over for Matt Hasselbeck as the grizzled
backup QB with diminishing skills. Cassel wasn’t very effective
in eight games with Dallas last season and more of the same is
to be expected if called upon this year.
The team’s off-season plan to build an offense around Marcus
Mariota was set into action when the team pulled off a trade to
acquire DeMarco Murray. This was seen as mostly a salary dump
for the Eagles and a buy low situation for Tennessee. Considering
the lack of a consistent force in the backfield throughout the
2015 season, it is a good gamble for the Titans and raises the
fantasy potential of the entire offense in the process.
It would have been tough for any running back coming off a 2014
campaign with almost two season’s worth of touches (450!) to be
a success the following year, let alone working in Chip Kelly’s
up-tempo offense. In fact, it’s somewhat amazing that Murray was
able to register over 230 touches and avoid serious injury in
the process. While plenty of fantasy managers will want to focus
on the decline of Murray in Philadelphia, those who look towards
the future will anticipate a rebound. And it could be huge. The
offense is deeper across the field and the coaching staff is drooling
over the possibility to have one guy take over the majority of
the carries. That’s a rare commodity in fantasy leagues and one
that is not being valued in current drafts. Murray’s injury risk
is real and prevents the ex-Eagle from being a lottery pick. Nonetheless,
his only competition is from a talented rookie with a limited
skill set and a slew of complementary pieces that have failed
to deliver when given the chance. Even if you don’t think Murray
is capable of returning to elite RB1 status he is in an ideal
situation to earn a profit on his current fourth round price tag.
The Titans landed the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry
in the second round of this year’s draft. He joins the growing
list of Alabama rushers in the NFL and fits the mold of today’s
early-down running back. Most importantly, he strengthens the
between the tackles rushing abilities of a team that had the fewest
rushing first downs (66) in the entire league during the 2015
regular season. There is little doubt that Tennessee is hoping
its new “thumper” can complement DeMarco Murray to
help wear down defenses and take some pressure off their young
quarterback. His fantasy forecast, however, does not carry as
much optimism for 2016. He is not a threat in the passing game
and many scouts have questioned his ability to pass protect coming
out of college. He could find himself in a featured role if something
happens to Murray so he will be an option for anyone interested
in carrying a handcuff. Realistically, he is a low end RB4 with
flex upside if the team decides to feature him near the goaline.
Antonio Andrews wasn’t expected to be much of a factor
in the rushing game last year, but the former undrafted free agent
was the best of an underwhelming group leading the team with 520
rushing yards. The coaching staff certainly gave him an ‘A’
for effort but their real feelings were conveyed by investing
heavily in a position during the off-season. Consequently, the
Titans are pushing their 2015 starter of ten games into a true
reserve role. Bishop Sankey and Dexter McCluster will battle to
be the backup on passing downs while second-year player David
Cobb tries to keep his roster spot in a crowded backfield. With
DeMarco Murray and rookie and Derrick Henry ahead of him on the
depth chart, Andrews is an in-season free agent pick in redraft
leagues.
A former first round pick back in 2012, Kendall Wright continues
to frustrate coaches, quarterbacks and fantasy owners ever since
the 94-1079-2 statline he posted in 2013. Despite high expectations
from the coaching staff, Wright has competition to be the team’s
most productive fantasy wideout in 2016. He doesn’t provide
much touchdown potential nor does he blow the top off the defense
on a consistent basis. The fact that the coaching staff may insert
him into the slot further dampens his fantasy outlook. Perhaps
the motivation of being a pending free agent at season’s
end will provide an extra spark in Wright’s game to see
him emerge as a more popular target for Marcus Mariota. The new
regime in Tennessee is focused on getting more production from
its receivers and Wright is in the mix but the leash is short…
on the plus side it does remain attached. Fantasy owners should
consider the Titans’ passing attack a fluid situation and
make a point to check back often to gauge the value of Wright
and his teammates.
The largest ceiling of the Tennessee’s receiving corps
belongs to Dorial Green-Beckham. However, figuring out his floor
will make you think twice before investing. DHB has the ability
to get down the field to make plays as well as “post up”
cornerbacks in the end zone. The makings for a truly gifted fantasy
WR1 are all present if he can develop his route running enough
to become a factor in the short and intermediate passing game.
So far, the team has not been giving DHB looks with the first
team at the outset of off-season workouts. He will have plenty
of opportunity to push for a larger role in the offense throughout
the course of training camp and the preseason so fantasy owners
shouldn’t overreact. It is very possible that DHB rides
a wave similar to Allen Robinson a year ago, overcoming obstacles
to be the team’s top play-maker on offense. He’s a
great lotto ticket in the middle of the draft-especially for owners
in three-wide receiver leagues. However, he could just as easily
be squeezed out of regular snaps and be a part time player on
a conservative offense. The range of realistic outcomes for DGB
is high.
Of Tennessee’s top three receivers, Rishard Matthews was the
most valuable fantasy commodity in 2015 and he feels like the
safest bet to produce given the team’s desire to sign him as a
free agent. He offers more athleticism and a better fit for the
short to intermediate routes that this offense has lacked. He
has a good chance to earn a starting job but until his true usage
and targets shake out it will be tough to accurately assess Matthews’
fantasy value for 2016. Likewise, he is currently the first Titans
receiver off the board in standard 12-team leagues. Tajae
Sharpe is a rookie receiver out of UMass that will also be
in the mix in the large battle at the position. His presence with
the first team during OTAs appears on the surface to be a motivational
ploy directed at Dorial Green-Beckham. Nonetheless, the team is
high on the youngster and he may prove to be a long term option
in the slot if Kendall Wright leaves in free agency next season.
Harry
Douglas and Justin
Hunter are hanging around but the coaching staff seems to
be abiding by the “out with the old, in with the new” adage at
the receiver position. Tennessee could look to strike a deal or
outright waive Douglas or Hunter before Week 1.
Delanie Walker proved once again that tight ends paired with
rookie quarterbacks are a solid bet to make for fantasy owners.
Of course other factors weighed in to create the perfect recipe
for a 20-percent increase in targets as well. For instance, the
lack of any semblance of a ground game or reliable target among
the wide receivers meant that when the offense needed a first
down it looked for Walker. And look for him they did as he posted
career highs in receptions (94) and yardage (1088) in 2015. If
things go according to plan, that won’t be the case this
year. As the offense has gotten deeper and stronger, the need
for Walker to be the one stop cure for every situation has been
spread out-especially inside the twenty-yard line. The team now
has two capable running backs to turn to when in the red zone.
Additionally, the Titans would be unwise to keep DHB on the sidelines
in those packages as well. All indications are pointing to more
blocking and less receiving in the Titans’ ball control
scheme. Be careful not to set your expectations for Walker too
high in 2016 but don’t sell him short. As Marcus Mariota’s
favorite safety valve, he remains one of the most targeted TEs
in the NFL.