The Titans’ vastly improved offense in 2016 won’t
sneak up on fantasy owners this season. Tennessee’s remade
offense ranked them in the top half of the league in scoring and
yards per game last year after placing in the bottom five in both
categories following the 2015 season. One of the biggest factor’s
to the newfound success is Marcus Mariota’s development
as a quarterback. Playing off a superior ground game, Mariota
has become an efficient sniper by picking apart defenses and being
effective when forced to scramble. Whether or not fantasy owners
want to put faith in a guy who has passed for over 300 yards just
three times in two years is the real issue. The Titans are going
to be a run first team again in 2017 so any increase in passing
attempts will be the result of more snaps on offense rather than
a decision to throw more often. Similarly, the addition of Eric
Decker adds more floor than ceiling to Mariota’s projections.
Tennessee’s franchise quarterback is progressing well from
a broken leg suffered at the end of last season and has taken
part in drills during OTAs and mini camp. He should be taking
reps with the first team when training camp opens so health shouldn’t
be an issue. Consider him a favorable backup fantasy quarterback
that could become quality trade bait during the year.
The Titans knew they needed a true horse to run their “Smashmouth”
scheme last season and they got just that when they added DeMarco
Murray. They rode him hard too. After seeing 240 touches in 2015,
the Titans leaned on Murray 346 times in 2016. The wear and tear
did take its toll on the beastly running back causing him to slip
from being a top three fantasy running back to playing like a
RB2 over the last month of the season. Reports this off-season
have noted Murray’s desire to remain in a true workhorse
role as well as HC Mike Mularkey’s intent on working Derrick
Henry into the mix. It’s hard to imagine the Titans keeping
the talented (and younger) Henry in a true backup role again this
year so expect Murray’s touches to settle in closer to the
sub-300 mark. A reduced workload shouldn’t deter fantasy
owners from trusting Murray to reach double-digit touchdowns and
over 1,200 total yards as a RB1. Murray did have surgery on his
finger recently but it shouldn’t have any impact on his
performance in 2017.
Opportunity is all that stands between Derrick Henry and fantasy
accolades. The rest of the league seems to use a RBBC with lesser
talent, but in Nashville the Titans prefer only one guy plucking
on the fiddle. The team knows it has a true workhorse type runner
in DeMarco Murray but they also want to get some return on their
investment from last year’s second round selection, Derrick
Henry. He caught 13 of his 15 targets and maintained an YPC of
4.5 on his 110 carries so it’s no secret he has the ability
to be a true difference maker in the fantasy game. It’s
a good situation for the Titans but it’s a bad situation
for fantasy owners looking to invest in Henry because he remains
a true backup who needs more touches to be a weekly fantasy starter
in most formats. In his rookie campaign, following Week 7, Henry
was able to post double-digit fantasy scoring four times but failed
to score more at least five points in any of the other games he
played during that time. His five touchdowns with limited touches
may fool some to believing he can be used as a flex option in
2017 but his role says he won’t be consistent enough to
trust. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had
in drafting a talented running back on a run heavy team. Henry
represents one of this season’s best lotto tickets to buy
and he will likely get scooped up in the middle rounds as a result.
The Titans don’t offer much depth at the running back position,
let alone anything close to a potential diamond in the rough.
At five-foot nine-inches and 175 pounds, Kalfani Muhammad won’t
be expected to run between the tackles as a pro. Tennessee will
utilize their rookie running back more on special teams where
he will offer very little to fantasy owners. Fullback Jalston
Fowler is seldom used as a rusher so the team will likely add
another running back before the season begins.
When Rishard Matthews was signed last season via the Dolphins
he felt more like a fantasy WR4 masquerading as his team’s best
receiver. The situation couldn’t have been any better for Mathews
to have a career season in 2016. Without a consistent threat opposite
him in the passing attack, sans Delanie Walker, Matthews received
108 targets and made the most of them. So much so that it seems
rather unlikely that he will be able to repeat them in the upcoming
year. Despite the spike in targets, his 60-percent catch rate
is far from elite and his chances of scoring another nine touchdowns
with Eric Decker in town are not likely either. He remains a good
option for Marcus Mariota and will be effective for Tennessee
but he is no longer the best receiver on the team and his window
is closing now that the team drafted Corey Davis. He will be a
depth option in most formats as a WR3/WR4 in redraft leagues.
Health is the biggest question mark surrounding Eric Decker.
The 30-year-old wideout inked a one-year deal with the Titans
after missing all but three games in 2016. He finds himself in
an offense that doesn’t place a huge emphasis on the passing
game but does just enough to make the receiver position fantasy
relevant. Most of Decker’s value resides in his higher than
average scoring output so expect Tennessee to use him near the
goal on a regular basis. The move to a run orientated team limits
Decker’s upside but he should have more red zone opportunities
with Tennessee than he would have with the Jets. If Decker can
take over as Mariota’s preferred receiver to get consistent
catches he has a real opportunity to be a sneaky good WR2 this
year. However, if the injury bug hits or there is a lack of chemistry,
Decker could be a touchdown dependent boom or bust WR4.
Tennessee selected Corey Davis with the fifth overall pick with
every intention of making him a franchise player to help Marcus
Mariota and the Titans advance to the next level. His outlook
in dynasty leagues is promising as the Titans build a core of
talent at the skill positions. In 2017, however, the expectations
of Davis making an immediate impact remain lower than some fantasy
owners may want to believe. The team’s choice to bring in
Eric Decker moves Davis down the depth chart where the youngster
has a chance to develop without being relied on as a starter.
He’s going to be exciting to watch develop but being buried
on the depth chart for a team that runs the ball more than almost
every team in the league won’t translate into success. The
ankle injury appears to be behind him so fantasy owners should
expect a healthy Davis when training camp arrives. He’s
a late round flyer in deep formats where an injury (or two) may
give him enough opportunity to be a short term fantasy asset in
his rookie season. Last year’s rookie receiver, Tajae Sharpe,
struggled after a solid start to his pro career and is now recovering
from foot surgery. With more competition on the roster and health
concerns, he may struggle to stay with the team.
Since joining the Titans in 2013, Delanie Walker has been a stalwart
performer in real life and in fantasy. He has scored at least
six touchdowns in all but one of his four years with the team
and he has built great chemistry with QB Marcus Mariota and should
once again be a key contributor on third downs. Walker saw at
least six targets in all but four games last year but failed to
post at least 8 fantasy points in nine of his 15 games played.
The twelve year vet will be 33 this year and the new reinforcements
will likely eat into his targets, especially near the goaline.
There is some fuel left in the tank, but just how much is left,
but it may not be enough to be viable starting option for much
longer. The team selected Jonnu Smith out of Florida International
in this year’s draft. Although he isn’t going to be
a factor this year, he holds plenty of appeal in keeper and dynasty
formats where he could see the field as quickly as 2018.