A year ago, the question was whether Sean Payton could revive
Russell Wilson’s career after a brutal first season in Denver.
The answer was no. The two of them never seemed to be on the same
page, and the Broncos cut ties with Wilson, absorbing a massive
$53 million in dead cap. Rather than sign a veteran, the team
drafted Nix with the 12th overall pick, which seemed like a pretty
significant reach with many publications putting a second- or
third-round grade on him.
At this point, Nix is locked in a three-way battle with veteran
Jarrett Stidham, who started the final two games of 2023, and
Zach Wilson, the former No. 2 overall pick that flamed out in
New York. To be clear, Payton drafted Nix to develop him now,
so even if Stidham is QB1 in September, the odds are that the
rookie will see the majority of the snaps in 2024.
Nix started 61 games in college, which is the most in FBS history,
so he has some experience. He has good athleticism, throws an
accurate ball, and makes sound decisions. Expect Payton to heavily
manage him, though, leaning on the running and short-passing games
no matter who is under center. Nix is a low-ceiling option that
shouldn’t generate much interest outside keeper formats.
Turn back the clock to 2022, and the tandem of Williams and Melvin
Gordon was viewed as a quality pairing. By year’s end, Williams
was rehabbing a torn ACL suffered in Week 4, and Gordon had been
released due to ongoing problems with ball security. Now, questions
abound in Denver’s backfield, including the status of the
former Tarheel that is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
To his credit, Williams was ready to go in Week 1 last season,
less than 12 months after tearing his ACL. He never looked quite
right, however, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and failing
to register a single 100-yard performance. He stayed mostly healthy
-- a hip injury sidelined him for a week early on -- but never
rounded into pre-injury form. In fact, he seemed to tire late,
posting just 128 yards on 47 carries (2.7 YPC) over his final
four games.
Despite the back’s struggles, Payton never turned to anyone
else in that primary role, and the expectation is that Williams
will once again be the lead back in 2024. While there appears
to be more depth at the position, there’s more uncertainty
at quarterback, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Denver
rely more heavily on the ground game this season. View Williams
as a mid-range RB3.
After Williams, the Broncos have a bit of a logjam with four
legitimate candidates for meaningful snaps this season in McLaughlin,
Samaje Perine, Audric Estime, and Blake Watson. Of the group,
figure that Estime and McLaughlin are on the safest ground. Perine,
a steady veteran, is a potential cap casualty, and Watson, an
undrafted free agent, might be ticketed for a slot on the practice
squad.
While Estime is more of a power back, and the one that would
likely step into a lead role if anything happened with Williams,
McLaughlin figures to fill a more regular role. The undersized
back has tremendous speed that allowed him to make an impact last
year (570 yards, 3 TDs) after making the squad as an undrafted
free agent. That lack of size all but ensures he won’t be
a full-time back regardless of injuries, but if Perine is jettisoned,
McLaughlin could be a flex candidate.
With Jerry Jeudy traded to Cleveland during the offseason, Sutton
is the clear No.1 option in Denver. He led the team in receptions
(59), targets (90), receiving yards (772), and touchdowns (10)
a season ago, and he should be considered the favorite to do so
again. That’s the good news. The bad news is Sutton pieced
together a third straight year of fewer than 65 catches and 850
yards, and only his exploits in the red zone allowed him to remain
a viable fantasy starter from week to week.
Heading into 2020, Sutton was coming off a 72-1112-6 effort as
a second-year player and looked ready to ascend into being a legit
WR1. He torn his ACL in Week 1 that year, though, and has never
been the same. While his durability came back, missing just three
of 51 games in three seasons since, he has never recaptured the
form he showed in his sophomore campaign. Now, with so much uncertainty
at the quarterback position, Sutton is best viewed as no better
than a No. 4 fantasy wideout.
After Sutton, things are wide open. Veteran Josh Reynolds posted
a 40-608-5 line with Detroit last year, effectively serving as
their No. 2 receiver, and fourth-round pick Troy Franklin has
some potential as a downfield threat. Tim Patrick (knee) cobbled
together back-to-back 700-plus-yard seasons in 2020-21, but he
has missed the last two years completely, tearing his ACL in 2022
and his Achilles’ last year. All three are in the mix for
playing time.
For us, the one to watch is Mims (22-317-1). Although undersized
at 5-foot-11, 183 pounds, Mims can make things happen out of the
slot thanks to his speed and elusiveness. Remember that Denver
moved up to draft Mims with the final pick of the second round
last year, making him the first selection under Payton, so clearly
the current regime sees something in him. The team has already
said they’re counting on Mims to make a jump with Jeudy
gone, and he should be given every chance to do so. He’s
a possible late-round target in larger leagues.
Tight end was a dead zone for Denver last year with the combination
of Trautman, Lucas Krull, Greg Dulcich, Nate Adkins, and Chris
Manhertz collecting just 39 receptions. Despite that lack of production,
the Broncos made no meaningful additions at the position. That
means Trautman, who caught 22 passes for 204 yards and 3 TDs,
is lined up to be the starter once again.
If anyone can push Trautman for the job, it’s likely to
be Dulcich, who had 33 receptions, 411 yards, and two scores as
a rookie before being limited to two games last year by hamstring
and foot injuries. While his efforts in Year 1 are encouraging,
bear in mind they came before Payton arrived, whereas Trautman
began his career with the current head coach when he was with
the Saints. Either way, nobody at the position should be considered
on draft day.
