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Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Michael Turner vs. DEN
By now, savvy fantasy owners (and even dumbasses) know the drill
with Turner. This week he is an absolute must-start against a
Broncos defensive group that has given up an average of 146.3
rushing YPG and 11 TDs on the ground. Denver has also allowed
13 runs of 20+ yards this season. Turner has averaged 29 carries
per game over his last 2; given the same workload against Denver
he is in line for excellent numbers.
Matt Forte @ GB
Forte is a strong start against weak Packers run D that is giving
up 154.6 rushing YPG. The Packers were just ripped for nearly
200 yards by Adrian Peterson last week and Forte should be counted
on for solid yardage totals and a TD. He gets plenty of touches
and could be a factor in the passing game with Bear receivers
being covered well. His stock goes up even higher if Kyle Orton
is healthy enough to play.
Joseph Addai vs. HOU
Joseph Kwahu Duah Addai Jr. certainly hasn’t dazzled us
this season; he has, however, been the victim of a tough pretty
tough RB schedule. Luckily for Addai and his owners, his schedule
softens up the rest of the way, starting this week against the
Texans who have given up 14 rushing TDs. Back in Week 5 Addai
had one of his better games of the season against Houston: 4.2
YPC, 71 rushing yards, TD. With the Colts playing better of late,
he should be able to at least duplicate that performance.
Frank Gore vs. STL
SCR Quiz time! Name the only NFL team that has given up more rushing
TDs than the aforementioned Houston Texans? Hint: they got shellacked
by 44 points last week (by a team that lost to the Raiders!!!).
You got it…Frank Gore’s opponent - the St. Louis Rams
- have served up a NFL-high 15 rushing TDs. They have also surrendered
more points than any team in the league and an average of 161
rushing YPG. Gore has been running well (save the brutal final
sequence @ Ari) and should find the end zone for the first time
since Week 6.
Ronnie Brown vs. OAK
I know Ricky stole his thunder last week, but Ronnie still managed
to find pay dirt for the 2nd straight week despite lower yardage
totals, and he now has nine TDs in nine games this season. Even
if the Wildcat Formation is getting played out, it’s the
Raiders we’re talking about here; they have allowed 13 rushing
TDs and 158.1 rushing YPG. Furthermore, Ronnie has great numbers
in 2 career games against Oakland: 30 carries / 192 yards / 2
TDs.
Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Willis McGahee @ NYG
“Whatchootalkinbout” Willis gained a season-high 112 yards last
week and will look for his first back-to-back 100-yard games since
November 2004. Sadly, he has the daunting task of facing nasty
Giants D that easily stymied Brian Westbrook last Sunday. The
Giants have only allowed 4 rushing TDs and give up an average
of 87.7 rushing YPG. They haven’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher
this season, and it’s not about to happen for McGahee.
Ryan Grant vs. CHI
Ryan Grant has put together back-to-back decent games against
the stout rush defenses of the Viking and the Titans and this
week faces the hardnosed Bears rush D. Chicago gave no running
room to Titans rookie sensation Chris Johnson & his chubby backfield
mate LenDale White last week. I would not advise rolling Grant
out against this Bears unit that is only allowing 74.9 YPG.
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. TEN
MJD went off last week, in doing so he has set you up for dissatisfaction
this Sunday. Thanks to the complex formula I have developed to
project Jones-Drew’s numbers each week, you are safe. Remember,
MoJo’s output should be viewed in 3-game blocks. The pattern
is consistent: Stinker – Stinker - Good Game. So, the good
(great) game against the Lions last week means bad game this week
against the Titans. Remember what MoJo did in Week 1 against Tennessee?
Five carries for 13 yards.
LaDainian Tomlinson @ PIT
LDT had 78 yards (3.5 YPC) and could not find the endzone against
a Chiefs run defense that has allowed 14 TDs on the ground and
an average of 5.3 YPC to opposing runners. The problem is likely
the Chargers commitment (or lack thereof) to the run. An even
bigger problem for Tomlinson owners is this week’s matchup
against the Steelers. They have not allowed a 100-yard rusher
this season and have limited every RB they have faced, including
big names like Addai, Portis, Jacobs, Jones-Drew & Westbrook.
Cedric Benson vs. PHI
CedBen is arguably coming off his best game as a pro (24 carries
/ 104 yards / TD), the third 100-yard rushing game of his career.
I caution against expecting similar output against the Eagles,
who will be looking to tighten up a rush D that got shredded last
week by the Giant rush attack. Despite giving up 2 scores to Brandon
Jacobs, the Eagles have allowed just 5 on the ground all season.
Hopefully you have a better option.
Wide Receivers
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