Each week when compiling
this report, I take into consideration not only the individual
players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their
opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement
weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a
dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making
the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback
is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific
roster question relative to your team? Fire
away.
Many of us will begin our playoff run this week, for some it starts
in Week 15; either way - remember to continue to start the players
that got your team to where it is. Now is not the time to over-think
or overanalyze these decisions. Put your best team out there and
hope the fantasy gods reward you swiftly and appropriately. Good
luck!
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Schaub vs. SEA
Despite dislocating his non-throwing shoulder last week, all indications
are that Schaub will play this week against Seattle, and both
the Texans and fantasy owners need to have him out there. The
Texans running game is stagnant, which means Schaub will continue
to throw the ball downfield. He is completing 68% of his passes
and remains a threat to throw for 300+ passing yards in every
game. The Seahawks are decent against the run (13th in the NFL),
but have allowed 243.5 passing YPG and 22 aerial TDs. Barring
a setback in practice, make sure Matt is in your lineup this week.
Donovan McNabb @ NYG
Donovan McNabb threw 3 TDs and connected on 74% of his passes
(23 attempts) in the Eagles' first meeting with the Giants in
early November. He has thrown at least 1 TD in 7 straight contests.
In his last 4 games, Donovan has 6 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 298
passing YPG in that span. The Giants have been stingy in terms
of passing yards allowed (199 YPG), but they have allowed 21 TDs
through the air, and QB Tony Romo burned them last week for 392
yards and 3 TDs. In his last 3 games against New York, McNabb
has thrown 7 TDs with just 1 INT.
Alex Smith
vs. ARI
Smith is blossoming in the newly installed spread offense in San
Francisco. Much to the chagrin of Frank Gore owners, the 49ers
new scheme obviously places much more emphasis on throwing the
ball. San Francisco called passes on 21 of the first 24 plays
last week in Seattle and Smith promptly threw for a career-high
310 yards. In his last 3 games, Smith has gone from fantasy benchwarmer
to a possible starter, as he has 7 TDs and 1 INT in that stretch.
The Cardinals rank 30th in pass defense (257.8 YPG) and Smith
should continue to find TE Vernon Davis, WRs Michael Crabtree
and Josh Morgan and RB Gore in open space.
Is this an "up-week" for Garrard?
David Garrard vs. MIA
With 2 TDs last week against Houston, Garrard is coming off his
first multiple passing TD performance since Week 4. He has thrown
5 TD passes while getting picked off once over his last 5 games.
The Dolphins pass defense has allowed 242.9 YPG, 24th in the NFL,
and RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been held under 100 yards rushing
in 3 straight games. This isn’t to say that MoJo won’t be great
this week, but while fighting for a Wild Card spot, the Jags will
do what it takes to win; lately the wins have come with Garrard
leading the offensive charge. He remains a threat to run the ball
and could always pick up a cheap rushing TD.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Carson Palmer @ MIN
Palmer has 2 TD passes and 3 INTs in his last 4 contests and has
averaged just 179 passing YPG in that span as Cincinnati continues
to lean heavily on their running game. Palmer has been disappointing
in consecutive weeks against the paltry pass defenses of the Browns
and the Lions. The Vikings have a stingy run defense (ranked 3rd
in the NFL), which could create opportunities for Palmer, but
he remains very hard to endorse as a fantasy starter. Consider
that Carson has thrown multiple TDs in only 3 of his 12 starts
this season.
Brett Favre vs. CIN
After throwing 12 TDs and 0 INTs in November, a bit of Favre’s
magic wore off last week in Arizona as he was picked off twice
and sacked 3 times in the loss to the Cardinals. He should bounce
back this week, but he faces a tough Bengals defense that has
allowed an average of 211.5 passing YPG this season. The Bengals
are 1 of 7 NFL teams who have intercepted more passes (14) than
passing TDs allowed (13). Brett has not had consecutive ‘bad’
games this season
Chad Henne @ JAX
Henne was impressive last week against the floundering secondary
of the Patriots as he set career highs in completions (29), attempts
(52) and passing yards (335). Prior to that, he had not thrown
for more than 175 yards in 3 consecutive weeks. I am wary of him
producing another big game this week for the run-heavy Dolphins.
In fairness to Henne, he has thrown TD passes in 4 straight games,
but has 5 TDs and 4 INTs in that span. His completion percentage
leaves something to be desired, and without a true #1 receiver,
Henne has a way to go before being deployed in fantasy lineups.
Matt Ryan vs. NO
Ryan has not yet been ruled out for this week’s game against
the Saints, but even if active, he should be ruled out of your
lineup. After a several shaky weeks, the second-year signal caller
was sharp 2 weeks ago against the Giants, but it is anyone’s
guess how he will play with a lingering turf-toe injury that normally
takes several weeks to heal. Furthermore, the Saints pass defense
has been very good – picking off 23 passes and allowing
just 12 aerial scores through 12 games.
Running Backs
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