Each week when compiling this
report, I take into consideration not only the individual players
mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents,
team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather
(when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic,
stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right
roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important
to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster
question relative to your team? Fire
away.
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Kurt Warner @ DET
Warner followed the best 4-game stretch of his career with a disastrous
performance; he threw for just 178 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INT
against San Francisco on Monday Night. He also got sacked 4 times
and fumbled twice (lost 1). Think back to Week 8 when he threw
5 picks and lost a fumble to Carolina; he followed that game up
with a 5 TD performance in Chicago, and ended up throwing 12 TDs
and 0 INTs until last week’s debacle. I really like the
chances that Warner will bounce back in a big way this week. Consider
that he faces the Lions, by far the worst pass-defense team in
the NFL. Detroit has allowed 272.1 passing YPG and an absurd 29
aerial scores.
Jason Campbell vs. NYG
I’m fairly stunned to be endorsing Campbell at this point
in the season, but he is playing as well right now as he ever
has. He has thrown multiple TD passes in 3 straight games for
the first time in his career and has averaged 273.3 passing YPG
with 7 TDs and 3 INTs in that span. While the Giants have kept
opponents passing yardage totals down (206.5 YPG – thanks
to early season matchups with the Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders), they
have been burned for an alarming 23 aerial scores and 41 passing
plays of 20+ yards this year. Over the last 2 weeks, New York
has allowed an average of 338 passing YPG and served up 5 passing
TDs. If your QB situation is murky, Campbell could be the surprising
answer.
Can Romo take advantage of New Orleans'
banged up secondary?
Tony Romo @ NO
In oxymoronic fashion, Romo has been red-hot for the ice-cold
Cowboys. His QB rating of 111.7 last week marked his 3rd straight
game with a rating over 100 – the 2nd time this season he’s
had such a streak. Romo has gone 3 straight games without an interception,
tying the longest streak of his career (set earlier this season);
during that stretch Romo has averaged 316.67 passing YPG and tossed
7 TDs. The task is taller this week in New Orleans, but it’s
reasonable to envision a game in which the Cowboys trail for most
of the game, forcing Romo to throw the ball and make some plays.
The Saints have an impressive 24 INTs this season, which is a
concern, but they are banged up at the cornerback position, which
should bode well for both Tony and the Dallas’ receivers.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Brett Favre @ CAR
The Panthers limited Tom Brady to 192 yards and 1 TD and smothered
WR Randy Moss last week (1 catch for 16 yards, 1 fumble lost).
Favre himself threw for just 192 yards last week against Cincinnati,
his lowest total since Week 2. As bad as the Panthers offensive
attack appears to be, their pass defense is very good. They are
1 of 6 NFL squads to hold opponents under 200 passing YPG (192.4)
and they have more INTs (18) than passing TDs allowed (13). The
Panthers have done a solid job at limiting big plays; they have
allowed just 29 passing plays of 20+ yards, which is tied for
the 3rd lowest total in the league. We all know what Favre is
capable of, but the Panthers defense has the ability to keep his
totals modest.
Philip Rivers vs. CIN
Rivers has played at a very high level this season; although his
272 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT last week in Dallas were slightly underwhelming.
The Bengals have one of the top defenses in the NFL and they are
coming off a game in which they limited Brett Favre to 192 yards
and 1 TD. Rivers certainly has the capability and the weapons
to trump the numbers, but it is reasonable to assume that his
totals could be more humble than we’ve grown to expect from
him. The Bengals have allowed an average of 209.1 passing YPG
and are 1 of 7 NFL teams with more INTs (15) than passing TDs
allowed (14).
Tom Brady
@ BUF
In the last 3 weeks, there has been evidence that the rib, shoulder
and finger injuries have caught up with Tom Terrific. He has 3
TDs and 5 INTs while averaging 260.3 passing YPG in that span.
All things considered, the Bills play well at home and they have
one of the best pass defense units in the league. They have allowed
just 189.2 passing YPG; they lead the NFL with 25 INTs and are
2nd in allowing just 10 aerial TDs this year. On the other hand,
Buffalo has a dreadful run defense, and it is important to note
that Brady has thrown more TDs against the Bills (32) in his career
than any other NFL team. Without a no-brainer alternative with
a great match up, Brady may still be your go-to guy, but prolific
numbers should not be expected.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. GB
Roethlisberger was sacked 8 times in Pittsburgh's loss to Cleveland
on Thursday night. Remarkably, he did not throw any INTs, but
he was held without a TD pass for the second time in 4 games.
In spite of my respect for him, I’m just not comfortable
hinging my hopes of getting to a championship game on Roethlisberger’s
arm considering the state of the Steelers. Furthermore, the Packers
have held opponents to an average of 187 passing YPG and have
not given up over 217 yards in 6 weeks, although they have allowed
24 passing TDs this season. In their last 3 games, Green Bay has
9 INTs and 4 passing TDs allowed.
Running Backs
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