Note:
You certainly don’t need me to tell you that elite players
like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Larry
Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten, etc., are ‘must-starts’
every week. Never (ever!) sit a stud, unless you’re prepared
to get burned (and subsequently ridiculed by league mates). It
is equally as effortless for me to tell you to sit the rookie
QBs, 2nd string RBs and journeyman WRs, but that really isn’t
going to help you either. That is not what this column is about.
The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players
who I expect to perform like a quality fantasy starter on a given
week; and on the flip side, exposing some of the more highly-regarded
players who I anticipate could disappoint.
Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration
not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state
of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical
player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of
course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that
aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your
fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep
the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to
your team? Fire away.
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Hasselbeck vs. St. Louis
Despite just 4 wins from the Seahawks a season ago, they still
finished third in the Division, ahead of the lowly Rams. Hasselbeck
has something to prove after an injury-riddled 2008 season, and
should have no problem doing so against a squad that served up
29 points per game to opponents last year. With a new head coach,
a loud home field advantage, a weak opponent and newcomer TJ Houshmandzadeh
split wide, Hasselbeck is in line for a nice day.
Palmer's ready to air it out at home against
the Broncos.
Carson
Palmer vs. Denver
Palmer suffered a torn ligament in his throwing elbow last season
which limited him to 129 pass attempts and just 3 passing TDs
in 4 games. After averaging 26 TDs in first 4 years, Palmer is
a good bet to bounce back. He’ll get his season off to a solid
start against the Broncos; Palmer has a 64.1% completion percentage
at home during his career.
Shaun Hill @ Arizona
While not the most striking option, Shaun Hill has quietly posted
respectable numbers as a starter in San Francisco. Over the last
two years when Hill is behind center, the 49ers are 7-3. In his
last game against the Cards (2008 - Week 10), Hill threw for 217
yards and 2 TDs. While there are a few new faces on board, bear
in mind this Cardinals defense surrendered an NFL-high 36 aerial
scores 1 year ago.
Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco
Warner has 23 career TD passes versus the 49ers, his highest total
against any team in the league. In 2 games against SF in 2008,
Warner threw for a combined 525 yards and 4 TDs. Get him in there,
you know he’ll put up points until the much anticipated
injury bug strikes.
Donovan McNabb @ Carolina
McNabb started off 2008 with a bang, tossing 3 TDs and 361 passing
yards in his first game. While his season dipped, he had a strong
finish and should pick right up where he left off. The Panthers
were in the bottom 6 in the NFL in pass attempts allowed per game
(34.8), and McNabb averaged 35.7 passing attempts per game. This
should be a healthy combination for Donovan to put up solid QB1
numbers.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Cassell @ Baltimore
Though Baltimore said goodbye to former Defensive Coordinator
and quasi-head coach (according to Bart Scott) Rex Ryan, the Ravens
still possess a tough, nasty defense. Matt Cassell will have his
hands full after missing some time this preseason due to a strained
MCL. The Ravens defense last year held opponents to 15.2 points
per game and 179.7 passing yards/game.
David Garrard @ Indianapolis
In 2008, Garrard started 16 games for the first time in his career,
and finished with just 15 passing TDs to show for it. While the
Jags rebuild, Garrard just does not have the talent at the receiver
position to be great. Factor in that the 2008 Colts pass defense
surrendered only 6 (SIX!!) TDs through the air.
Jake Delhomme vs. Philadelphia
After four multi-TD games in the first half of 2008, Delhomme
has not thrown 2 or more TDs in game since October 26, 2008. His
last 300-yard game was September 16, 2007, and his line of 6 TDs
and 7 INTs in the final 8 games of last season is simply not going
to cut it for your fantasy squad.
Kyle Orton @ Cincinnatti
I maintain that Orton will have some sort of fantasy relevance
this season, and expect to see him on other side of the list down
the road. He’s got serious weaponry with receivers Eddie Royal
and malcontent Brandon Marshall. Alas, he dislocated a knuckle
in the third preseason game and should not be considered until
he shows he has a handle on the Broncos offensive scheme. The
Bengals D showed life at the end of 2008, rattling off 3 straight
wins and limiting their opponents to 6.3 points per game.
Running Backs
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