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The Shot Caller's Report - QBs
Your Weekly Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 4
10/2/09
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Note: You certainly don’t need me to tell you that elite players like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten, etc., are ‘must-starts’ every week. Never (ever!) sit a stud, unless you’re prepared to get burned (and subsequently ridiculed by league mates). It is equally as effortless for me to tell you to sit the rookie QBs, 2nd string RBs and journeyman WRs. That is not what this column is about. The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like a quality fantasy starter on a given week; and on the flip side, exposing some of the more highly-regarded players who I anticipate could disappoint.

Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to your team? Fire away. I may not be able to get to all the emails this week as I will be traveling with limited access to a computer, but I’ll do the best I can. Thank you for your support!

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan

Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Carson Palmer @ CLE
You have to worry a little about a let-down game here from the Bengals, but the Browns are so bad, odds are Palmer puts up very good numbers. Despite only allowing 228 passing YPG (which could be attributed to a brutal run defense), Cleveland has yet to intercept a pass this season. In his career, Carson has thrown more TDs against the Browns (20) than any other NFL team.

Jay Cutler vs. DET
Cutler is a nice play this week; he has heated up and the Lions continue to give up yardage and scores through the air. Detroit has already served up an astounding 10 passing TDs. Cutler was sharp last week, completing 78% of his passes and 3 TDs. He has not had a cream puff match up yet but has still averaged a respectable 243 passing YPG and 2 TDs per game. He should continue to impress against a defense that sits in the bottom 3 in every defensive passing category.

Eli Manning @ KC
Like Cutler, Eli is a strong play this week due to a combination of him stepping up his game and the weak opponent in Kansas City. He’s got 5 TDs with just 1 interception on the season and his completion percentage is at a career-high level. Even if he is going to come back down to earth, the Chiefs can’t disguise their poor defense which is allowing 28.3 PPG and lies in the bottom tier of NFL defenses. They do not pose a threatening pass rush and Eli’s consistent play lives another day.

Shaun Hill vs. STL
Clearly Hill is not the most eye-catching choice at QB for your squad, but for a bye-week or injury fill-in, you could do much worse. He has been efficient this year for a surprising 49ers team. Hill has thrown more TD passes against the Rams (4) than any other NFL team and it would be surprising if he does not add to that total. He has found chemistry with TE Vernon Davis and the ‘Niners will be motivated to get back on track after last week’s heartbreaker.

David Garrard vs. TEN
Garrard has thrown more TDs against the Titans (8) than any other squad. Don’t expect him to throw for 300 yards or throw 3 TDs, as he has only reached both milestones twice in his career; however, he seems to have a nice connection with WR Mike Sims-Walker and throwing the ball to MoJo Drew can never be a bad thing. The Titans have already served up 7 aerial scores and their pass defense has shown considerable flaws. Plus, Garrard is always a threat to run it in near the goal-line.

Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Matt Cassel vs. NYG
Cassell managed to throw 2 TDs last week despite only 90 passing yards against the Eagles. Head Coach Todd Haley seems intent on running the ball despite a non-existent running game, which further derails Cassel’s value. Cassel could heat up when WR Dwayne Bowe gets healthy, but there is no way he can be trusted this week against the NY Giants, who have the best pass defense in the NFL through 3 games.

Mark Sanchez @ NO
I’m all for buying into the hype of Sanchez as a leader of the NY Jets. He has certainly been efficient in guiding them to a 3-0 start. I’m not, however ready to anoint him as fantasy-relevant just yet. The sample size is small, but he has been held under 172 passing yards in 2 out of 3 games this year. He will be tested on the road in what will presumably be a very loud Superdome. The Saints are prone to giving up garbage time yardage, but they have picked off 7 passes while allowing just 3 aerial scores in ’09.

Chad Henne vs. BUF
No one quite knows what to expect from Henne as the Dolphins new starter, other than he reportedly likes throwing the deep ball. The fact is he has only thrown 31 passes in his career (0 TD, 1 INT) and should not be given the reigns to your offense until he shows he can compete. The Bills served up 5 passing scores to their first 2 opponents, but held QB Drew Brees without a TD pass for the first time in 12 games.

Trent Edwards

Trent Edwards: Lookin' for T.O.?

Trent Edwards @ MIA
Edwards was disappointing last week in a game where he should have put up good numbers. Miami is desperate for a win and I think they will play well (defensively) at home. Edwards’s best day on the season was 230 yards and 2 TDs against the Bucs in Week 2, who get bombed regularly. He is hesitant to throw the ball downfield and if he continues to ignore T.O. it could get real ugly for the Bills.

Jason Campbell vs. TB
Campbell threw for 340 yards and 2 TDs last week (against the Lions – nothing to write home about); I think he will have trouble replicating a performance like that in consecutive weeks. In 39 games he has thrown for 300 yards only 5 times, and has only done it in back-to-back games once (2007). Simply put, he just is not a good fantasy quarterback; he has tossed multiple TD games just 3 times his last 22 starts. I’m wary despite the cheese matchup.

Running Backs