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The Shot Caller's Report - QBs
Your Weekly Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 5
10/9/09
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to your team? Fire away.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers

Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Matt Schaub @ ARI
Schaub is coming off a quiet game in which he completed only 11 passes against the miserable Raiders. With a sizeable lead, the Texans stuck to the ground in the 2nd half, which limited Schaub’s fantasy contribution. This week his stock is back up as he faces a Cardinals team that has served up 7 aerial scores in 3 games and 280 YPG through the air. I expect 20+ completions and close to 300 yards in what could be the highest scoring game of the week.

Donovan McNabb vs. TB
McNabb will start at quarterback Sunday against Tampa Bay, his first action since his rib fracture in Week 1. This is a great scenario for Donovan to get back up to game speed. The Bucs have allowed Trent Edwards to throw for 230 yards & 2 TDs; in fact all 4 QBs to face Tampa this season have thrown for 2 or more TDs. While Philly will involve RBs Westbrook and McCoy, Head Coach Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, and McNabb should make both his coach and his owners happy this week.

Brett Favre @ STL
Brett Favre has delivered three consecutive fantasy-relevant games - and is primed for a fourth this week in St. Louis. In the purple and white, Favre has 8 TD passes and just 1 interception through 4 weeks. This matchup has the potential to get ugly, which could lead to a healthy dose of RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the second half, but it’s unlikely that Favre will do something here that would hurt you. The Rams have only picked off two passes this season and are one of only four teams to allow opposing QBs a passer rating over 100.

Ben Roethlisberger

Four straight games with a TD pass for Big Ben.

Ben Roethlisberger @ DET
Big Ben has thrown a TD pass in four straight games to start the season and in nine of his last ten games overall. He has thrown for 300+ yards twice already in 2009; he only had three 300-yard passing games in ’08. The best part about Roethlisberger this week is his opponent: The Lions have allowed 12 passing TDs (2 more last week!) through 4 games; opposing QBs are averaging 240 yards passing, 3 TDs and a 118.8 passer rating per game against them.

Joe Flacco vs. CIN
Joltin’ Joe Flacco has quelled any notion of a ‘sophomore slump’ by posting 8 TDs and just 3 INTs thus far. Flacco has fired a scoring strike in every game this season. After throwing just 1 TD in his first four games last year, he has now passed for a TD in 13 of his next 15 games. Flacco has topped the 300-yard mark twice this season, something he never accomplished in 2008. The Bengals have given up more passing plays (17) over 20 yards than any other team. The Ravens offense is legit and Flacco is ready to take the reins to your fantasy squad.

Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Carson Palmer @ BAL
I don’t think Palmer will be awful this week, but with 6 TDs and 5 INTs on the season, he has not exactly been setting the world on fire. His passer rating has now fallen for a third consecutive week. Palmer’s Week 5 opponent, the Ravens, feel like they let one get away last week. Ray Lewis and Co. will undoubtedly be amped up for this big divisional home game. Although their pass defense hasn’t been as solid as years past, they are tied for 3rd in interceptions (6) and are in the top ten in the league in sacks (10).

Shaun Hill vs. ATL
The Falcons are beatable through the air, but Shaun Hill has yet to complete 20 passes or throw for over 209 yards in a game this season. Hill is a decent, serviceable QB in the 49ers offense and probably won’t hurt you (5 TDs, 1 INT in 2009). If you are looking for your QB to put up ordinary numbers, then look no further, but consider that only the Broncos (0), Jets (1) and Colts (2) have allowed fewer aerial TDs than the Falcons (3).

Jason Campbell @ CAR
Campbell has had a run of three consecutive “easy” matchups (and some consider Carolina to be a fourth), but he could only muster 4 passing TDs (and 4 interceptions!) in that time and the depressing Redskins cannot seem to score with any regularity. The winless Panthers, coming off a bye-week, will find a way to stifle Campbell at home. Carolina is 1 of 7 NFL teams to allow less than 200 passing YPG.

Matt Ryan @ SF
Dating back to last season, Ryan has now thrown for 199 yards or less in 3 of his last 5 games and has not gone over 229 yards in that time frame. He did not throw a TD pass last week (@NWE) for the first time this season, coincidentally it was the Falcons first road game of 2009. Now they head off to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that is 6th in the league in total defense. The ‘Niners have intercepted more passes (5) than passing TDs allowed (4) and it won’t be an easy game for the 2nd year signal-caller.

Running Backs