Each week when compiling this
report, I take into consideration not only the individual players
mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents,
team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather
(when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic,
stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right
roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important
to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster
question relative to your team? Fire
away.
Quarterbacks
Bye Weeks: Brett
Favre
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Kurt Warner @ CHI
Entering Week 8, Warner had thrown 6 INTs and nearly doubled that
total by tossing 5 picks last week against the stingy pass defense
of the Panthers. He’s still on pace for a 4,000 yard season
and with the offensive talent around him, I expect him to bounce
back this week in Chicago. Warner has thrown at least 1 TD pass
in every game this season and, remarkably, in 30 of his last 31
games. The Bears allow only 199.4 passing YPG, but they have given
up 11 aerial TDs. If the Card’s offensive line gives him
some time, Warner should deliver.
Joe Flacco @ CIN
Flacco has thrown a TD pass in all 7 of the Ravens games in 2009.
His only 2 INT game this season came in Week 5 against the Bengals,
but it would be surprising if he had a similar performance this
week. Flacco’s opportunities were limited by a 27-carry, 120 yard
effort from RB Cedric Benson, but something tells me the Ravens
will be more prepared this time around. Cincinnati now ranks 30th
against the pass, they have allowed 253.3 YPG and 10 aerial TDs
in 7 games.
Matt Cassel @ JAX
In 6 games this season Cassel has been sacked a whopping 24 times
and he was sacked 47 times last year while playing for the Patriots;
clearly the guy can take a shot. Of the remaining games on the
Chiefs schedule, this may be the best chance for Cassel to put
up more than respectable numbers. The Jags have only sacked the
opposing QB 5 times this year; there are 16 individual NFL players
5 sacks or more! Jacksonville gives up an average of 242.4 passing
YPG and has served up 13 aerial scores while intercepting just
5 passes in 7 games.
Donovan McNabb vs. DAL
McNabb is coming off arguably his best game of the season against
the division rival NY Giants and he’ll face another on Sunday
night against Dallas. In 5 games this season McNabb has tossed
9 TDs with just 1 INT. You’d have to go back to 2005 to
find the last time Donovan failed to register a passing TD against
the Cowboys. The Dallas D seems to have improved as the season
has progressed, but they really have not been tested since Week
2, and yet they have still given up 12 passing TDs and intercepted
only 4 passes. With a confident McNabb heating up and plenty of
weapons at his disposal, look for Donovan to continue his hot
hand.
A tasty matchup against the Lions awaits
Hasselbeck in Week 9.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. DET
Hasselbeck has burned fantasy owners before in a seemingly cheesecake
match up (see Week 6 vs. Cardinals), but it would be shocking
if he does not produce this week at home against the Lions. He
has thrown 7 TDs in 3 games at Qwest Field, and that includes
the stinker vs. Arizona. Detroit has given up 18 TDs and has allowed
opposing QBs a 110.6 rating, the highest such number in the league.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Ryan vs. WAS
Ryan has not looked good in recent weeks. Over his last 3 games
he has had passer ratings of 68.4 (Chicago), 66.1 (Dallas) and
46.6 (New Orleans), including the first 3 INT game of his career
last week. He has 7 TDs and 8 picks in his last 5 games, with
just one 300+ yard outing in that stretch. Overall, the Redskins
are in disarray, but their pass defense continues to impress.
Washington is ranked 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 164.9 passing
YPG and just 6 aerial TDs through 7 games.
Eli Manning vs. SD
In his last 3 games, Manning has completed less than 50% of his
passes, with 3 TDs and 6 INTs in that timeframe. In his first
5 games, he had completed 64.4% of his passes with 10 TDs and
2 INTs. Too late to sell high, but I think it’s wise to
let Eli and the Giants work out their issues before deploying
him again. The Chargers have the 6th ranked pass defense in the
NFL; they hold opponents to 178.4 YPG and have intercepted nearly
as many passes (8) as TDs allowed (9).
Kyle Orton vs. PIT
I’m not going to ‘blast’ him because he has
done a nice job, but Orton somewhat came back to earth last week,
throwing a season-low 152 yards and 0 TDs against the Ravens.
He seemed unable to stretch the field and could find himself in
a similar position on Monday Night Football. The Steelers defense
is starting to heat up and I expect them to bring their “A”
game to Denver. They will bring intensity similar to that of the
Ravens and if they can pressure Orton, Pittsburgh will most certainly
add to their totals of 5 INTs and 21 sacks this year.
Jay Cutler vs. ARI
Last week, Cutler failed to throw a TD pass for the first time
this season against the porous defense of the Cleveland Browns,
but he did throw another INT. He now has 11 TDs and 11 INTs and
has been sacked 15 times in 7 games. Last season with Denver he
was sacked only 11 times in 16 games. He’s thrown 1 TD and
4 picks in his last two games and appears to have gone cold after
a decent start to his tenure as the Bears QB. The Cardinals pass
defense is nothing to write home about, but Jay needs to get back
on track before he takes the reins to your fantasy offense.
Running Backs
|