The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Tim Tebow vs. NE
Let’s talk about the AFC West leading Broncos…what?? Yes, yes, it remains somewhat hard to believe, but Tebow has not only won over most Bronco (and some football fans), more importantly he has led the Broncos to 6 straight and 7 wins in their last 8 games. Last week versus the Bears, he threw for a season-high 236 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and added 12 carries for 49 yards. His passing yardage has increased each week for 5 consecutive games (69 – 104 – 143 – 202 – 236) leading to a tasty matchup with the Patriots this week in Denver. Tebow now has 11 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs & just 2 INTs on the season. He’s had at least 1 TD (passing or rushing) in 9 straight games this season and in 14 of his 16 career appearances. A few weeks ago, Eric Decker seemed to be the likely recipient of passes, but WR Demaryius Thomas has risen to the top and given Tebow a big outside threat. New England has allowed 21 aerial TDs and remains the only NFL team to allow more than 300 passing yards per game (308.7).

Mark Sanchez is rushing his way into fantasy relevancy.

Mark Sanchez @ Phi
The revitalized Jets are back in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth and Sanchez has been an integral part of their recent success. Last week against the Chiefs, he not only threw for 2 TDs, he also rushed for 2. Despite not topping 181 yards passing in any of his last 3 contests, he still has enjoyed a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio in that span. He now has career-highs in both passing TDs (21) & rushing TDs (5) heading into Sunday afternoon’s game in Philadelphia. The Eagles have not given up much in terms of passing yards per game (218.9), but Sanchez has shown that he can be a fantasy contributor without excessive yardage totals. The Eagles have allowed a whopping 23 passing TDs, which is tied for the 4th highest total in the NFL.

Rex Grossman @ NYG
Those owners in need of a QB plug should take a long, hard look at Grossman this week. He is one of the hardest QB in the league to advise starting; his “Bad Rex” tendencies could end up cost you a fantasy playoff game, but it is hard to ignore his matchup against the Giants this week. Last week Grossman completed 19-of-32 passes for 252 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT against the Patriots. He has done a good job recently of getting the ball downfield, evidenced by at least 7.7 yards per attempt and 2 passing TDs in 3 of his last 4 games. Without Fred Davis in the mix, Redskins WRs Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth all had at least 81 receiving yards last week and all should be called upon to make plays at MetLife Stadium. The Giant defense has allowed at least 321 passing yards in 3 straight games; they have also allowed 24 aerial scores this season, tied for the second highest total (Bills) in the NFL.

Philip Rivers vs. Bal
Despite producing his league-high 22nd turnover (this time, a fumble returned for a Buffalo TD) Rivers was great again on Sunday, throwing for 240 yards and 3 TDs. After several mediocre performances, Rivers has now compiled 9 TDs and 1 INT in his last 4. Make no mistake, the matchup this week against Baltimore is not pretty on paper as the Ravens have arguably the NFLs best pass defense (192.3 passing yards per game, 9 TDs allowed, 14 INTs, 45 sacks) but I’m going against the grain on this one. Rivers and the Chargers are in must-win mode, playing at home and I just can’t imagine a bad game in this spot. If you have a solid option/matchup with alternate QB, give it credence, however it is important to note that Rivers has a good track record against the Ravens. In 2 career home games against Baltimore, Rivers has thrown for 685 yards with 5 TDs and 2 INTs.

Bench 'Em

Joe Flacco @ SD
Joltin’ Joe Flacco threw for 227 yards, 2 TDs and an INT last week against the hapless Colts on efficient 23-for-31 passing. Keep in mind that in his up-and-mostly-down fantasy season, this was just his 2nd multiple TD game since Week 3. He has only 3 TDs over his last 3 games and has averaged just 182 passing yards per game in that span. Looking at the bigger picture, RB Ray Rice has 55 carries over the Ravens last 2 and it is clear that they are comfortable and content riding Rice as far as he’ll take them. Flacco has ability, but the team has a run-first approach and you don’t want to pray for a shootout on Sunday to get solid points from Flacco. Defensively, the Chargers have been mediocre against the pass (22 TDs allowed) but have held opposing teams to 201.5 passing yards per game, 7th lowest in the NFL.

T.J. Yates vs. Car
Yates was awesome last week in Cincinnati, he completed 26-of-44 passes for 300 yards, 2 TDs and one interception while adding five scrambles for 36 yards. He played an enormous role of helping the Texans to their first AFC South title in franchise history. The reality is that Houston will try to make their way back to their run-heavy ways this week against the Panthers. Yates has certainly shown poise in the pocket and the ability to make plays with his arm, but it was a first-half ‘perfect storm’ at Paul Brown Stadium that boosted his big performance. I don’t anticipate Texans experiencing the same problems which led to a 16-3 halftime deficit and induced significant second-half pass attempts. If all goes as planned, Yates will return to his game manager ways as the Texans defense and run game again takes center stage.

Alex Smith vs. Pit
Smith had a predictably rough game in Arizona, throwing for just 175 yards without a TD as he continued his inconsistent road play. He took 5 sacks and produced a season-low 48.6 completion percentage in one of his worst games of the season. He has just 2 TD passes in his last 3 games (7 TDs in his last 7), and, to the surprise of no one, the 49ers have dropped 2 of their last 3. Smith is not an advisable start on Monday night against the Steelers, who have given up an NFL-best 179.1 passing yards per game and held opposing QBs to a rating of 74.7 – only the Jets, Ravens and Texans have been tougher.

Running Backs