The purpose of the Shot
Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform
like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip
side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just
may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only
the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and
their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement
weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years
of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing
probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily
mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against
the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350
yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.
With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and
opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster
decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question
or something interesting to say? Send
me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions
or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em
A multiple TD game for Fitzpatrick is likely
this week against the Pats.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. NE
Fitzpatrick's 3 TD passes against the Raiders gave him 7 through
two games - the most by a Buffalo QB to start a season since Jim
Kelly had 8 way back in 1991. I love the matchup this week against
the high powered Patriots, who have allowed an average of 381
passing yards per game this season - while teams attempt to keep
pace with Tom Brady & Co. The same scenario is likely to play
out at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday. Fitzpatrick has thrown
multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 games and while it will be interesting
to see if he can keep up this level of play for an entire season,
he makes for a solid spot start this week.
Joe Flacco @ StL
After an excellent effort in Week 1, Flacco regressed last week,
completing just 15 of 32 passes for 197 yards, including 1 TD
and 2 INTs as the Ravens were stunned by the Titans. Ironically,
the last time Flacco completed less than 50% of his passes also
came in Week 2 - of 2010. The following week he was outstanding
(22 of 31, 262 yards, 3 TDs) and I expect the same from him in
St. Louis. Ray Rice will pave the way on the ground, but an efficient
Flacco should manage the game well and put up quality fantasy
numbers.
Colt McCoy vs. Mia
I’m going out on a bit of a limb to endorse the second year signal
caller McCoy, but he has a juicy matchup this week versus a reeling
Miami Dolphins squad. While McCoy clearly does not have the arsenal
of Tom Brady or Matt Schaub, in 2011 only the Chiefs (8) have
given up more passing TDs than the Dolphins (6) and he should
be able to capitalize. Look for bruising RB Peyton Hillis to open
up some passing lanes for McCoy as he looks to get more production
from his wide receivers. TE Ben Watson should play a significant
role; Patriot and Texan TEs combined for 17 catches, 223 yards
and 3 TDs against Miami.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. Den
Hasselbeck was on top of his game last week against Baltimore,
completing 30 of 42 passes (1 TD, 1 INT) for 358 yards –
the 7th highest total in his 13-year NFL career. His top receiving
threat, WR Kenny Britt has at least one touchdown in 4 straight
games dating to last season and 12 TDs in his last 11 games. While
Chris Johnson is sure to see a lot of action in this game, Hasselbeck
will be called upon to make some plays and has proven himself
thus far with his new squad. Be sure to check for updates on Kenny
Britt’s hamstring; he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s
practice but practiced fully Thursday and is expected to play.
Bench 'Em
Kyle Orton @ Ten
Orton takes a measureable amount of heat in Denver, but from a
fantasy perspective it really is not a simple task to illustrate
that he is a poor QB option. He was solid against the Bengals
last week (195 yards, 2 TDs) despite the late scratch of top WR
Brandon Lloyd. It is important to remember, however, that Broncos
Head Coach John Fox generally wants to run the ball more than
throw, evidenced by Orton’s 25 pass attempts in Week 2.
The other consideration has to be the Titan pass defense, which
may be better than advertised. They sacked Joe Flacco 3 times
last week and have only given up 344 passing yards and 1 aerial
TD through 2 games.
Sam Bradford vs. Bal
Bradford threw for 331 yards and a TD against a banged up NYG
secondary on Monday night but seemed to struggle without injured
slot WR Danny Amendola. The Rams dealt with dropped passes, pass
protection issues and an anemic red zone effort and clearly missed
RB Steven Jackson. Even if Jackson suits up this week, the task
is daunting for Bradford against what should be a fired up Baltimore
defense. Despite allowing 604 passing yards through Week 2, the
Ravens are one of four NFL teams (Jets, Titans & Lions) who
have intercepted more passes (4) than TD passes allowed (2),
Chad Henne @ Cle
The 2011 Cleveland Browns have held opponents to an average of
165.5 yards per game, but even if their defense is not legit,
it’s hard to trust Henne here. After completing 60% of his
passes for 416 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against the Patriots, he
completed just 40% of his passes for 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT
against the Texans. Henne has thrown at least 1 interception in
5 straight games and incredibly, in 14 of his last 15 contests,
with only 5 multiple passing TD games in that span. He has never
thrown more than 2 TDs in a game in his career.
Eli Manning @ Phi
On Monday against a depleted Rams secondary, Eli threw for 200
yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT. With a rash of injuries to Giant wide
receivers, he could struggle against the Eagles this week. Eli
has had a mixed bag of results against Philadelphia in his career
so there is no clear trend expose; last season at home against
the Eagles he threw 4 TDs; in Philadelphia he tossed 3 INTs. A
week after shutting down Sam Bradford, the Eagles gave up 4 TDs
to Matt Ryan. They struggled to cover TE Tony Gonzalez but should
not have the same issue with Giants TE Jake Ballard who has 3
receptions in 2011.
Running Backs
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