The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Manning is looking to carve up the Cardinals through the air.

Kyle Orton @ GB
Only one team (Patriots) has given up more passing yards this season than Orton’s Week 4 opponent, the Green Bay Packers. Over the last 3 games, QBs Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Jay Cutler all passed for at least 302 yards against the Pack. Orton has 5 TDs and 3 INTs on the season and has thrown at least 1 TD in every game and, believe it or not, has a record of 3-1 as starter against Packers. Look for him to go over his average of 224 passing yards per game as the Broncos running attack should be held in check by the one of the NFL’s top run defenses, forcing Orton to air it out.

Philip Rivers vs. Mia
In 2011 Rivers has thrown 2 INTs in each of the first three games; dating to last season he has 5 TDs and 8 INTs in his last 5 starts. On a positive note, he has averaged 305.8 passing yards per game in that span and he is overdue for a big bounce-back game. Luckily for him, the Dolphins are in town and Rivers should not have difficulty getting back on track. Last week QB Colt McCoy threw for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against Miami, who have given up an NFL-high 8 passing TDs with only 2 INTs on the season.

Jason Campbell vs. NE
I wouldn’t call this a ringing endorsement, but Campbell should be an effective fantasy play this week. Obviously the Raiders are a run-first team, so while he has only 82 pass attempts, Campbell is completing 65.9% of his passes and he has only turned the ball over once in 2011. He has 2 rushing TDs this season, tied with Cam Newton for the NFL lead by a quarterback. He showed during Week 2 in Buffalo (323 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) that he can step up in a shoot-out, which can be expected against the Patriots. No other NFL team has given up more passing yards (1,131) than New England.

Bench 'Em

Mark Sanchez @ Bal
After a career-high 369 yards, 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing score in the Jets loss to Oakland, there is only one way for Sanchez to go this week. While he may be called upon to air it out against Baltimore on Sunday night, the Ravens pass defense is much more formidable than last week’s depleted Raiders’ secondary. The Ravens are one of five NFL teams (Redskins, Lions, Titans, Jets) who have more INTs (5) than passing TDs allowed (3). In one career start against Baltimore (Week 1, 2010) Sanchez was held to 74 passing yards on 10 of 21 passing.

Tony Romo vs. Det
Whatever your opinion of Tony Romo, 4th quarter meltdowns aside, you really have to respect the blood and guts he left on the field on Monday night in Dallas. As admirable as his performance was, it did nothing for your fantasy team. It may be best to get thru the Cowboys’ Week 5 bye to allow Romo and the rest of the banged-up Cowboys to heal. WR Miles Austin is not expected back until Week 6 and WR Dez Bryant still appears to be slowed by his thigh injury. The Lions pass defense looks to be on the same level as the Redskins, (though not quite as tested), and Romo should be reserved until Week 6.

Sam Bradford vs. Was
Bradford had his cage rattled by the Ravens last week and makes for a risky fantasy start against the Redskins. Despite throwing just his first interception of the season versus Baltimore, Bradford has only 2 passing TDs and has been under constant pressure. Injuries to key players, a shoddy offensive line and too many dropped passes certainly do not help his cause. Furthermore, the Redskins pass defense is no slouch, allowing an average of 240 yards per game and 2 TDs while intercepting 3 passes.

Kevin Kolb vs. NYG
Kolb has taken a step back in each game this season; by no means has he has done a bad job, but fantasy owners expected more from him. He was hit hard and sacked 3 times in Seattle and I’m a bit worried about him against the Giants this week. New York is playing well on both sides of the ball and will be bringing significant pressure (8 sacks in 2011). Until a legitimate receiving threat not named Larry Fitzgerald emerges in Arizona, Kolb will remain inconsistent.


Running Backs