The purpose of the Shot
Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform
like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip
side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just
may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only
the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and
their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement
weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years
of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing
probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily
mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against
the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350
yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.
With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and
opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster
decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question
or something interesting to say? Send
me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions
or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.
Quarterbacks
Bye Weeks: Bears, Buccaneers,
Falcons, Jets, Packers, Raiders
Start 'Em
Joe Flacco vs. Ari
With a chance to show that they belonged amongst the best teams
in the AFC, the Ravens offense was atrocious on Monday night in
Jacksonville. Flacco was terrible, throwing for a meager 137 yards
with 1 TD & 1 INT. He had a similarly forgettable performance
earlier during Week 2 @ Tennessee (197 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT)
and turned things around nicely the following week in St. Louis
(389 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT). I expect a good game from Flacco at
home against a Cardinals defense that has been very kind to opposing
QBs. Arizona has allowed 8.2 yards per pass (4th highest number
in the NFL), including 30 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Flacco
bounces back this week.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. Ind
The Texans helped induce the first real stinker of the year for
Hasselbeck as he finished with just 104 yards (1 TD & 2 INTs)
last week. Sure, he’s past his prime - and the loss of WR
Kenny Britt took a lot of wind out of his sails - but with the
right matchup, Hasselbeck can still be a serviceable bye week
plug. Enter the Colts, who have served up 14 aerial TDs with just
3 INTs and an average of 8.5 yards per pass. Indianapolis just
does not seem to make it difficult to move the ball against them
and they have failed to force a turnover in four straight games.
Hasselbeck will not light up the scoreboard, but 250 passing yards
and 2 TDs is not asking too much.
A big day is coming for Big Ben.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. NE
Roethlisberger torched the Cardinals last week for 361 yards (3
TDs & 0 INTs) and suddenly has 9 TDs with just 1 INT over
his last 3 games. He has thrown for at least 200 yards in 15 consecutive
regular-season games and it would be a shocker if he doesn’t
make it 16 straight this week. The Patriots have allowed an average
of 322.2 passing yards per game, easily the highest number in
the NFL, including 37 passing plays of 20 or more yards, again,
the highest total in the league. In his last home game against
New England (11/14/10), Roethlisberger had 30 completions for
387 yards, 3 TDs & 1 INT; this is shaping up to be a big day
for Big Ben.
Eli Manning vs. Mia
Manning is coming off his first TD-less game since Week 1, but
he actually was pretty close to having second consecutive 3 TD
game. Over his last three contests, he has averaged 344.3 passing
yards per game and if he continues to complete 63.8% of his passes,
he will set a career-high. He has a great chance to pad his stats
this week versus the Dolphins, who have allowed opposing signal-callers
8.2 yards per pass and 12 aerial TDs. Miami has allowed 7 passing
plays of 40 or more yards, so Eli should be able to involve WRs
Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham & Co. early and often.
Bench 'Em
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Was
Harvard alumni Fitzpatrick is no dummy, according to multiple
reports he is on the verge of signing a contract that will pay
him somewhere in the range of $10M per season, give or take a
few hundred thousand dollars. Not too shabby for a guy with a
career QB rating of 76.3 and a career 7:6 TD to INT ratio. In
his first three games, Fitz tossed 9 TDs and 3 INTs and averaged
280.3 passing yards per game; in the last 3, he tossed 3 TDs and
3 INTs, averaging 212 passing yards per game. His fantasy schedule
gets tougher over the next few games, starting with Week 8 against
the Redskins. Washington has allowed only 5 passing TDs through
six games. I don’t think he will necessarily hurt you, but
don’t expect anything flashy.
Tim Tebow vs. Det
Tebow was bad for at least 3 quarters last week against Miami,
but he did managed 2 passing TDs in the 4th quarter to salvage
his day and totaled 161 passing yards and 65 rushing yards. He
was often inaccurate (13-of-27) but made plays when it counted.
I would not expect the same this week against the Lions. Detroit,
coming off consecutive losses, will be ready for this game. The
Lions have one of the better pass defenses in the league; they
have allowed 8 passing TDs while intercepting 10 passes and an
average of 204.6 passing yards per game. Since Tebow does not
have a surplus of quality options in the passing game, he’ll
need to rely on his legs in order to have a big impact.
Philip Rivers @ KC
Last week against the tough pass defense of the Jets, Rivers finished
with predictably pedestrian numbers, 16-of-32 for 179 yards with
1 TD and 2 INTs; this marked his 4th multiple INT game this season
compared with just 2 multiple TD games. This surprising trend
has led to 7 passing TDs and 9 INTs on the season. The return
of TE Antonio Gates certainly helps matters, but this week Rivers
finds himself in the hostile prime-time environment of Arrowhead
Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs have rebounded from their early
season struggles; by no means are they a great defense, but they
held Rivers in check in their first meeting of the season (Week
3): 266 yards, 0 TD and 2 INTs.
Running Backs 
|
