Prophecy Fulfilled: Two Rookie Running Backs For The Ages

When we set out to prognosticate in July or August, it’s always a game of hit and miss as some things we’re able to call and others we miss. This summer, my most confident prediction about the 2007 season revolved around Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. In an article entitled “Five Mistakes to Avoid on Draft Day”, I shared that passing on Peterson & Lynch for proven veteran running backs would be a mistake. The reality here in November is that both are even better than I thought they would be. Adrian Peterson’s demolition of the Chargers defense ranks among the best fantasy performances by a running back I’ve ever seen. Peterson’s rookie year reminds me so much of Eric Dickerson’s rookie year in the NFL over 20 years ago (a few of you guys will remember that). I get e-mails every week that ask how much Peterson should bring in a trade and I say the same thing every week: Why are you trying to trade a guy that can spearhead an FF championship for you? Some players should be untouchable in terms of trades.

Any other Sunday, Marshawn Lynch would have dominated the headlines after a performance that included throwing a touchdown pass and also included a 56-yard touchdown run. Lynch is producing to the point that he’s not only a must start every week, but he’s also a guy that can anchor a fantasy backfield for the remainder of the year. With Lee Evans heating up and then some, the field is being stretched in Buffalo to the point that Lynch is getting all sorts of opportunities to shine.

In short, these two rookies look to me like first-round redraft fixtures for the next 5-7 years.

On a related note, anybody else find it ironic that on the day his rushing record gets broken, Jamal Lewis scores four touchdowns? Never mind that he averaged less than two yards a carry.

Speaking Of “Must Starts”...

Here’s a piece of fantasy advice for you: Take out an NFL schedule and figure out which running backs play against the Jets, Patriots, and Bengals between now and end of the season. Then, see if you have one of those running backs on your roster. If you do, start him in that game. I don’t care if it’s Cecil Sapp....just do it. Here’s the evidence from Sunday that supports this theory:

Exhibit A: Clinton Portis. Portis hadn’t gained over 100 yards in a game all season long coming into Sunday. Enter the Jets. Result: 196 yards. If you’ve seen Portis play much this year, the total from yesterday is just staggering....he hasn’t exactly been finding holes to run through.

Exhibit B: Ron Dayne. 21 carries, 122 yards.....on the road. We’ll give some props to Dayne for this effort, but if you’ve been tracking the Raiders run defense for the past month, this stat line comes as no surprise. They can’t stop anyone....and this would have been worse with the faster Ahman Green in the whole game.

We already discussed Marshawn Lynch, who ran against the Bengals this week. Call him Exhibit C in support of this theme.....

Next Week’s Lucky Duo: Cedric Benson & Willis McGahee. We’ll certainly find out if Benson has anything at all at that time because if Ron Dayne can hang 122 on the Raiders in three quarters, surely Benson can do the same. McGahee draws Bengals....the Jets are off.

Implosion Coming?

After another yardage total in the teens in terms of receiving yards, you’ve got to start wondering how long it’s going to be before Steve Smith physically attacks David Carr. I know the Panthers are 4-4, but it’s an ugly 4-4 and if you started Steve Smith the past two weeks, you’ve got to be asking: How much longer can I keep doing this? I suppose Carr and Smith’s chemistry could improve, but I wouldn’t bank on it happening any time soon. As such, as painful as it sounds, I think it’s time to sit Smith down. At least until Vinny T can get back on the field. Like I said, I can’t believe I’m saying this....I think Smith is the best wide out in football.

Another struggling receiver at risk for implosion even though his team keeps winning games is Roy Williams. Williams has been ice cold in terms of fantasy production for the past month and having watched Williams over the years, I can tell you that he seems to become disinterested when he’s not made the focal point of the offense. I’m sure Roy will have a big game again somewhere down the line, but he’s becoming a risky play from week to week. There’s a lot of guys I’d be putting in the lineup at WR ahead of Williams at this point.

One wide out who has been strangely quiet this year is Terrell Owens. Owens put up 174 yards tonight on 10 catches against his former team and for the first time in a long time, TO seems like he’s destined to finish out the season without major incident. Owens owners are welcome, of course, to send me e-mail that proclaims that I just jinxed their guy.

Tale of Two Seasons

It would have been nice for Drew Brees & Marques Colston owners if the Saints could have figured out how to get the offense on track back in September, but now that it is, it’s looking like 2006 all over again....especially for Brees. His day on Sunday had the look and feel of what he did all of last November when he propelled many a fantasy team into their league’s playoffs. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of it, either. Brees completed passes to nine different receivers on Sunday. That’s a good sign. If you’re a Brees owner, it’s officially time to get excited. The guy you thought you were getting on draft day has arrived.

Random Buzz

• Is it just me or is Bobby Engram one of the most underrated wide outs of his generation? If you started him in a PPR league yesterday, congrats....

• Kurt Warner just doesn’t seem right. I admire what he’s doing trying to play injured and all, but I’d be nervous right now if I were a Fitzgerald or Boldin owner (which I am).

• Tony Romo sure seems to be comfortable with that new contract. Just curious: If you have Jason Witten or Marion Barber on your team this year, what’s your record? I have seen more winning teams with those two guys on the roster than I can shake a stick at.

• The Broncos look like the Titanic to me right now. From a fantasy standpoint in particular, they’re taking on water. Avoid, avoid, avoid!

Just a note to the several hundred of you that sent me e-mail last week regarding the Patriots’ “Running Up the Score” controversy- thanks for the feedback! There were plenty of great comments on both sides of that fence. This week, I’d love to know who Adrian Peterson reminds you of....he’s certainly got the fantasy football world by the tail right now and his performance on Sunday is probably getting almost as much Buzz this week as Patriots-Colts. Speaking of which, you’ve got to love that prediction about Dallas Clark that I made last week. In for a big game? The “x-factor”? Maybe I should stick to reviewing Sunday’s action and leave the predictions to the Shot Caller—at least the short-term stuff.

Well, that’s all for this week. A couple of notes in closing: Another good week for David PatteRn and what a game for the Detroit Lions’ defense! Talk about the tale of two seasons.....what’s Marinelli got those guys eating for breakfast on Sundays? I know I’ll keep starting them....Hope you have a great week...wherever you are...God Bless!