One of the most difficult tasks during your fantasy football draft
is trying to decide between two players you essentially see as having
identical value. The purpose of this article is to not only identify
pairs of players that are considered of equal value in 2018, but
also take a look at the process of solving those dilemmas. With
that in mind, here are two running backs whose values look to be
nearly, if not totally identical.
Two early-down pounders that have viable
backups pushing for playing time. Which RB do you choose?
Another dilemma present for drafters will come in the form of
needing a RB2 in Round 4 where Ajayi and Henry are typically being
drafted in PPR leagues. Henry would have been the easy choice
after the release of DeMarco
Murray, but the addition of Dion
Lewis put him in the same tier as Ajayi, who also has suitors
on his team vying for playing time.
In seven games with the Eagles during the regular season, Ajayi
averaged nearly six yards a carry. That’s really good. In
that same time frame, he only scored 1 rushing TD. Not so good.
Philadelphia likes to throw the ball in the red zone as evidenced
by not only Ajayi’s numbers, but also the fact that LeGarrette Blount dropped from 18 rushing TDs with New England in 2016 to
just 2 last season.
Henry, meanwhile, is a near certainty to score more touchdowns
with Murray retired, but also must compete with his quarterback
for carries around the goal line. With Corey
Clement and Dion
Lewis being above average receivers, both Ajayi and Henry
are likely to be watching from the sideline on third downs. Henry’s
stat line in the playoffs last season of 35-184-1 got the attention
of many, but was that an anomaly?
First 4 games for Ajayi: ATL, @TB, IND, TEN
First 4 games for Henry: @MIA, HOU, @JAC, PHI
The Verdict: This is a tough one. Ajayi’s YPC in Philly
last year is eye-opening. Clearly, he has the offense around him
to keep safeties honest and will no doubt enjoy some running lanes
behind that offensive line that Henry will rarely see. But, Henry
will almost certainly get more goal line work and it would be
a surprise if his TD totals don’t double from 5 to 10. You
might reasonably expect both players to see roughly a 50% carry
share for their respective teams but in the end, it comes to what
you believe about the signing of Dion Lewis in Tennessee. I’m
of the opinion his role is to keep Henry fresh whereas Clement
and Darren Sproles will have weeks where the game plan dictates
as heavy a dose of their skills. This should allow Henry to push
above that 50% carry share mark while Ajayi may top out in the
45% range. Give me Henry here with the understanding that if Lewis
is truly in Tennessee to be 1B, all bets are off.
