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Bye Weeks: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis
Grab a Helmet
Ryan Fitzpatrick's favorite target.
Steve
Johnson v. NE: I’ve already tabbed Ryan Fitzpatrick as somebody
you’d want in your lineup this week, so it stands to reason Johnson
warrants a similar endorsement. Why? Well, as one goes, so goes
the other, it seems. I tracked Johnson’s game logs back to the start
of 2011 (when he emerged as a budding star) and a pattern quickly
materialized: When he had a subpar game (fewer than 50 yards and
no scores, for instance), Fitzpatrick’s numbers were similarly subpar
(fewer than roughly 200 yards, a pick or multiple picks, and no
more than one passing TD). This stands to reason, of course, since
Johnson serves as Fitzpatrick’s most accomplished wideout by a pretty
fair margin. If the latter is on, he’s usually finding the former.
When he isn’t, it’s probably because he can’t. Luckily for Johnson’s
owners, that’s pretty rare. In fact, I only tallied six such subpar
games in the past two-plus seasons. Line him up against the Pats
this Sunday.
Brandon
Lloyd @ BUF: I cautioned prior to Week 1 against expecting too
much too soon from Tom Terrific’s new toy. As it turns out, I was
only kinda right to pump the brakes on this seeming match made in
fantasy heaven. Lloyd has been targeted more often than I expected
the first three weeks (7th most) but he hasn’t reached paydirt and,
accordingly, is only the 38th most valuable WR so far. I think that’s
about to change. The Pats draw Stevie Johnson’s Bills this weekend,
Brady’s favorite AFC East foe by a longshot (46 TD passes and a
stellar 102.4 QB rating in 20 career matchups). Moreover, New England
will still be without the services of Aaron Hernandez and, quite
possibly, its new starter in the slot, Julian Edelman. Though I
still don’t understand why the latter has climbed above Wes Welker
on the depth chart, it may not matter this weekend. Welker, Rob
Gronkowski, and Mr. Lloyd will be shagging the future Hall of Famer’s
spirals on Sunday and that’s always a good thing.
Value Tight Ends v. Stud Tight Ends:
It’s safe to say tight ends, the most unsexy of positional fantasy
players, were decidedly sexier this past preseason in the eyes of
most fantasy GMs. The aggregate average draft position for the top
five TEs in 2012 drafts (12-team standard scoring) was just over
a full round higher (4.01) than it was in the preceding two drafts
(roughly 5.02). Naturally, the question must be asked: Were they
worth it? The short answer is…not yet. Jimmy
Graham, Gronk, and (especially) Vernon
Davis have mostly lived up to expectations, but Aaron
Hernandez has only played one game and Antonio
Gates has been unusually quiet in just two appearances. Meanwhile,
guys like Heath
Miller (old standby); Jared
Cook, Kyle
Rudolph, and Dennis
Pitta (up and comers); and Martellus
Bennett (huh?) are producing at a surprising clip. I guess you
could say it may very well turn out to be the year of the tight
end. It just may not feature the tight ends we thought it might.
I’d trade the headliners for an upgrade at wideout if I felt assured
I could grab one of these other guys instead.
Grab Some Wood
Michael
Crabtree @ NYJ: I took a swipe at Randy Moss last week, saying
he wouldn’t do much damage in his return to Minneapolis (he didn’t).
This week, I’ll push my luck with the Niners wideouts and predict
an off day for his more productive teammate, Mr. Crabtree. It
seems like every time I log into my ESPN league, the projector
is predicting big things from him. My question is…why? He’s been
pretty consistent through three games, yes, but he hasn’t reached
the end zone yet, hasn’t hit the century mark (he’s only done
it three times in three-plus years), and is actually the 51st
most productive WR through three games. 51st! Let’s see…12 team
league…three wide receiver slots...12 x 3 = 36…. Why is he even
being considered again? Alex Smith’s most valuable target is the
aforementioned Vernon Davis and the San Francisco passing game
is very much a zero-sum operation. If Davis is producing, nobody
else likely is. Sit Crabtree down against Rex Ryan’s Jets this
weekend.
Anquan
Boldin v. CLE: The 32-year old Boldin is starting to show
his age just as the Ravens are morphing into a quick-strike, pass-heavy
attack. It’s kind of a shame, really, as he would seem to be the
consummate foil to home-run hitter, Torrey Smith. He might still
fill that role as the season progresses, but I’m skeptical how
much that will matter to us. Take away the 34-yard touchdown against
the Bengals in Week 1 (and it absolutely should have been taken
away) and you’re looking at a pretty embarrassing output for the
one-time Super Bowl running mate of Larry Fitzgerald. He’s losing
targets to Smith (for obvious reasons), to Pitta (somewhat surprisingly),
and even to Ray Rice (who’s being utilized plenty as a receiver
out of the backfield). I doubt he’s in danger of being irrelevant
quite yet, but…let’s just say he’s trending in that direction.
See if you can find some better options Thursday night.
Any Seattle receiver @ STL:
My bitterness is showing through, isn’t it? Here’s the thing,
though: Sidney
Rice, Doug
Baldwin, and that other guy have combined for only 17 receptions
through three games. Divide that by three and…yeah, it’s not an
impressive number. One needs opportunities to be relevant as a
bona fide fantasy receiver and two to three catches per game probably
isn’t going to cut it. Until Pete Carroll trusts Russell Wilson
to shoulder more of the load, I’m not sure any of Seattle’s pass-catchers
are worth owning, let alone starting. Pass on these guys until
the Seahawks’ philosophy changes dramatically.
Good luck, folks!
Quarterbacks 
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