Nobody needs to be told starting Patrick
Mahomes, Christian
McCaffrey, or DeAndre
Hopkins is a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at
every position, though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues.
This is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which
bargain basement QB to use and which to ignore on Mahomes’ bye
week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back because
McAffrey is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need to know
which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit since
you ignored Hopkins and went RB-RB-Kelce in your first three rounds?
You get the idea. Past results may not guarantee future success,
but ignoring them entirely can ruin your Sundays in a hurry (maybe
even your Mondays and Thursdays). Read on for a little history
and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
He didn’t make the NFC’s Pro Bowl squad but does have
a chance to win an NFC East crown for his ‘Boys this coming
Sunday with a win over Philly. Prescott is fantasy’s QB4
through 15 weeks and with so much at stake and a favorable matchup
ahead, there aren’t many signal callers I’d rather
have in my lineup come championship week. The Eagles’ secondary
isn’t as porous as it was earlier in the season, but did
yield a career-high 23.7 points to Dwayne Haskins last week in
a game they had to have. That doesn’t bode well with a game
they need even more on tap, especially since they’ll be
facing a huge upgrade over Haskins and, statistically speaking,
the league’s best offense (434 yds/gm). Yup, Prescott’s
engineering the league’s most prolific offense but wasn’t
voted to the Pro Bowl. Hmmm. Start him Sunday.
If Dak is one of the safest Week 16 bets, Lock is one of the riskiest.
He was brutal in a snowy loss to the Chiefs (18 of 40, no TDs, and
a pick) and will be making only his fourth career start against
Detroit this weekend. So why even consider such an unproven greenhorn
with fantasy championships on the line? Let’s go back to that Detroit
part. The Lions’ secondary just got blasted by Jameis Winston to
the tune of 458 yards and four scores (remember: he was missing
Mike Evans) and has allowed the last three QBs they’ve faced, Winston
included, to complete almost 75% of their passes. Lock has plenty
to play for—namely a chance to be Denver’s QB1 in 2020—looked solid
in his first two starts, and has a budding superstar to play catch
with (Courtland Sutton). Roll the dice.
If I never write another SCR (who knows what the future holds?),
I’ll at least take comfort in the fact Ryan Fitzpatrick
was my last recommended QB start. Ol’ Fitzy’s “grabbed
a helmet” more than he probably should have over the years,
but it’s hard to dispute the dude’s got staying power
and legitimate game in this, his 15th season. How many folks thought
he’d even last this long back when he was throwing scads
of picks and losing lots of games for Buffalo earlier this decade?
Truth is, Fitzpatrick has played for a SINGLE winning team in
15 years and yet...dude perseveres, throws up a healthy amount
of fantasy points (QB6 the last five weeks), and still hasn’t
met a defensive back he wasn’t willing to truck for a few
more. He’s one of my faves and this is a great matchup.
Why not?
Allen’s game definitely has some Fitz to it (erratic passer,
prone to carelessness) but he’s more dangerous when on the
move (33+ rushing yds/game and nine rushing scores) and has already,
in two NFL seasons, managed to do something his Buffalo forebear
never did: get Buffalo into the playoffs. The Bills scored a HUGE
win at Pittsburgh last week, securing that playoff berth, and
even have an outside chance at winning the AFC East, though they’ll
have to get by the Patriots in Foxboro to do it. I don’t
think that’s happening. Allen was crummy in the first matchup
between the two teams (16.3 points) and also struggled against
another elite AFC defense (12.2 v. Baltimore in Week 14). He and
his Bills are playing with house money and I’ve got a sneaking
suspicion they might play like it come Sunday. Sit QB6 down.
The Raiders are two games away from calling Las Vegas home, officially
out of the AFC race, and will play out the 2019 string on the
road, having now played their final game (again) at Oakland-Alameda
County Coliseum, a disappointing loss to the lowly Jaguars. Though
Carr hasn’t been terrible in his Oakland swan song (QB18),
he hasn’t really improved upon pedestrian career numbers
and has been decidedly more anemic the last several weeks. He’s
averaged just 16.2 FPts/G since Week 12 and now faces a Chargers
defense that’s allowed just a single 20-point QB since Week
3. Oddly, LA’s playing ITS last game at Dignity Health Sports
Park before the 2020 move to SoFi Stadium, meaning the Raiders
will play two stadium-closing games in succession. It’s
hard to see how they get up for this one. I wouldn’t even
start Carr in two-QB leagues.
Sitting the Head Cheese in Week 16 used to be considered unconscionable,
but if there were ever a year to consider it, 2019 is it. Rodgers
is averaging a solid 21.0 FPts/G, putting him right on the doorstep
of Top 10 status (QB11), and his underlying fundamentals look very
familiar: closing in on 4,000 yards, 30 TDs, and a characteristically
absurd TD-to-INT ratio (he’s only thrown two picks). Nevertheless,
that FPts/G mark is actually his lowest as a Packer starter and
he’s been very disappointing the past month and a half, in
particular. Since Week 9, the Pack’s franchise is averaging
just 16.3 FPts/G. That’s fewer than Marcus Mariota averaged
in his six mostly ineffective Tennessee starts. Downwardly trending
superstar playing in a building that’s been unkind to him
v. a capable and motivated divisional opponent? Be very careful,
folks.
