2/3/05
As a wrap to the weekly IDP Notes
column, here's a review of the fantasy season from the IDP perspective.
I've put together the obligatory all-star team, handed out some
awards, and then wrote down my stream of consciousness that came,
position-by-position, as I perused the final rankings (well, an
edited, or maybe semi-stream of consciousness, anyway, as I took
some time to fact check or verify the accuracy of some of the thoughts
that occurred to me).
Fantasy rankings are based on FFToday Default Scoring
2004 FFToday IDP Fantasy All-Pro Team
No end (or even mid-point) of a regular season for any sport is
complete without compiling who were the best players at their
position, and then assembling them as some kind of dream team.
DE: Julius Peppers (CAR), Charles Grant (NO)
DT: Kevin Williams (MIN)
NT: Rod Coleman (ATL)
ILB: Donnie Edwards (SD), James Farrior (PIT)
OLB: Takeo Spikes (BUF), Keith Bulluck (TEN)
CB: Dunta Robinson (HOU), Ronde Barber (TB)
SS: Rodney Harrison (NE)
FS: Ed Reed (BAL)
Linebackers - Stats
Top Producer: Donnie Edwards (SD)
Breakout Player of the Year: Steve Foley (SD)
Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Vilma (NYJ)
Biggest Bust, Non Injury-Related: Chris Draft (ATL)
Biggest Bust, Injury-Related: Lavar Arrington (WAS)
Reshuffling the Deck at the Top
Consistently one of the top producing LBs the last couple of years,
Donnie Edwards (SD) faced the
challenges in 2004 of switching to a 3-4 in San Diego and entering
an age where production tends to decline. Instead of an off-year,
he ended the top scoring fantasy LB in the league. However, it's
important to note the reality is he had mostly solid, but unspectacular,
performance through much of the season, before a five week explosion
at the end of the year vaulted him into the top slot. In Weeks
12-16 he scored significantly more (100) than he did in the other
11 weeks combined, averaging 20 points per game for that span.
The rest of the season, he averaged 7.5 points per game. Of course,
any way you slice it, he's still worthy of being the LB MVP in
most leagues, because that outburst came during the fantasy playoffs.
Despite a career low in tackles, Takeo
Spikes (BUF) set career highs in passes defended, forced
fumbles and interceptions. With a big second half of the season,
he propelled himself into the second slot. Turning in the big
plays also moved James Farrior
(NYJ) into elite status. Farrior's actual accomplishments on the
field were duly noted, as well, as he was the runner-up for the
NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Rounding out the top five
were a couple players expected to be there, Jamie
Sharper (HOU) and Keith Bulluck
(TEN) with their standard exceptional production.
They've Fallen, but They Can Get Back
Up
Lack of big plays resulted in a bit of a disappointing season
for IDP owners of Ray Lewis
(BAL), who posted his worst fantasy season since his rookie year.
Still, he was the tenth ranked LB, so concerns about the beginning
of a decline would be sorely premature. Expect Lewis back at home
among the Top 5 LBs next year. Similarly, Keith
Brooking (ATL) fell to the lower half of the Top 20 with
a season that was, relatively speaking, a bit disappointing. While
the move from the middle to weakside LB was expected to lower
his total tackle numbers a bit, and it did, the promise of more
use as a pass rusher and potential for big plays was expected
to keep his numbers in the same place. However, most of his games
provided mediocre numbers and his final ranking was bailed out
by a couple big games at the end of the year (much to the delight
of his previously frustrated fantasy owners who were in the playoffs,
as they came in Week 15 and 16). Part of the lack of use with
Brookings more as a pass rusher was the lack of consistency in
the middle of Chris Draft. If the Falcons can resolve their MLB
situation, including if they move Brooking back there, there is
no reason to expect he can't be back in the Top 10.
Breakdown
Several of the usual suspects who were not among the top scoring
LBs had their seasons were partially or totally lost due to injury.
Headlining the list is Brian Urlacher
(CHI), with hamstring problems that caused him to not only miss
his first career game due to injury, but caused an injury-plagued
season that ended on the IR. When he did play, it's significant
to note he was producing well in Lovie's more aggressive D, averaging
10.7 points per game, third among LBs. He was back to getting
sacks and turnovers, after their absence made for a disappointing
2003. After an injury-plagued season followed an off-year, he
is likely to be a bargain in drafts next year or a good off-season
trade target in dynasty leagues. Usually a lock for around a hundred
tackles and a handful of sacks, Michael
Barrow (WAS) never saw the field due to injury in 2004.
He turns 35 before next season and if the Redskins don't give
up on him, it might be time for IDP players to. However, the biggest
injury-related bust was Barrow's teammate, Lavar
Arrington (WAS). A knee kept him off the field until the
last two weeks of the season and he continues to be a guy who
keeps finding ways to not reach his enormous potential, in real
or fantasy football. Wasted potential also continues to follow
Kendrell Bell (PIT) around.
He seems to be on the every other year plan, posting a promising
rookie campaign, before missing 2002 due to injury, then bouncing
back in 2003, before a lost 2004. Just as detrimental as his actual
absence were the setbacks and failed comebacks that kept his fantasy
owners from adequately replacing him, figuring he'd eventually
be productive this past season. An injury cost Sam
Cowart (NYJ) most of the season, Jonathan Vilma's emergence
cost him the rest. Cowart is a good guy to keep an eye on this
off-season, he could be a cap casualty that bounces back big with
a fresh start somewhere else in 2005. Anthony
Simmons (SEA) and Julian Peterson
(SF) were two other strong producers who had their seasons cut
short due to injury, but should be back among the top producing
LBs next year. Even ironman Zach Thomas
(MIA) had his typical Top 5 production dragged down by missing
a handful of games. However, he still finished 19th among LBs,
with 127 points for the season. After establishing himself as
a solid 100+ tackle producer, Jay Foreman
(HOU) had his season cut short by injury. However, the formerly
underrated player was no where near the level of production he
had been the last two years, even before the injury.
Some other players who carried high expectations in new roles
or on new teams also disappointed due to injury. Inconsistency
and lingering injuries resulted in an overall poor season for
Chris Claiborne (MIN), despite
a strong finish. Teammate E.J. Henderson
(MIN) was set to for a big season at MLB, after inheriting the
job when Greg Biekert retired. While he posted some decent tackle
numbers, he was a liability in pass defense and didn't turn in
many big plays. Missing a few games due to injury contributed
to a season that was a let down. He's still young and learning,
but it doesn't look like his upside is tremendous. Expectations
were high for Nate Webster (CIN)
after coming to the Bengals as a free agent and finally being
slated for a starting role, after being unable to crack the starting
lineup in Tampa Bay. He got off to a good start, his 9.8 ppg were
good for sixth, but a season-ending injury cut short a potential
breakout season. After finally taking sole control of the MLB
job in Cleveland, Andra Davis
(CLE) had a huge season in 2003. He got off to a slow start, before
a knee injury washed out the rest of his year.
Breakout
Raise your hand if you knew who Steve
Foley (SD) was before this year. Even if you are a Cincinnati
or Houston fan (his former teams), you likely might have referred
to him as "that other guy" when discussing the teams
LBs anytime in the previous 6 years. He made himself a household
name among IDP players this year, jumping from anonymity to waiver
wire wonder, and finishing just shy of being a Top 10 LB for 2004.
His 10 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 2 picks at least doubled his
CAREER totals in all those categories. Another nobody to near
ff stud in 2004 was Danny Clark
(OAK). Mostly a back-up in Jacksonville, he moved to Oakland,
where tinkering with a 3-4 opened the door for a starting job
and injuries secured it for him, resulting in a breakout season.
He doesn't turn in many big plays, but his 130 tackles were Top
10 in the league. Sell high, dynasty leaguers. The opening created
by the absence of their top two LBs in Washington allowed a couple
of career back-ups, Antonio Pierce
(WAS) and Lemar Marshall (WAS), an opportunity. Marshall showed
why he was just a back-up, but Pierce took full advantage of the
chance, posting a huge season as their MLB and looking like he
needs a place somewhere in a starting lineup. As a RFA, he's likely
to get it, perhaps at the expense of Michael Barrow, who could
be a cap casualty. The improvement of Lance
Briggs (CHI) wasn't as much of a surprise after putting
in a promising rookie season in 2003, but he really took a big
leap forward this past season. With Brian Urlacher injured a good
portion the season, he not only led the Bears in tackles, but
was second in the NFC. He has stepped in were Warrick Holdman
left off for the team a few years ago, a tackle machine on the
strongside that doesn't produce many big plays. Young player continuing
to developed, stepped up in absence of team's stud MLB
the
same story line applies to Will Witherspoon
(CAR). This guy is the complete package and hasn't peaked yet.
Strong buy in dynasty leagues. Teammates and coaches always spoke
highly of the potential of Adalius
Thomas (BAL). The loss of Peter Boulware for the season
finally gave him an opportunity and he capitalized on it. While
it wasn't to the level of his predecessor, Cato
June (IND) posted good numbers, as expected, after moving
into the starting weakside job for the Colts. Although he was
unable to win the starting job at the beginning of the season,
injuries gave him another chance, and Kawika
Mitchell (KC) played well enough down the stretch that
the job should be his to lose in 2005.
Breakout that Brokedown
Every year, any preseason evaluation of Dan
Morgan (CAR) includes the caveat "if he can stay healthy
for the whole season". Obviously, this applies to any player,
but it's necessary to emphasize when projecting the beyond-injury-prone
Morgan. Through the first half of 2004, it looked like we might
get to see the elusive "whole season", and the results
were impressive, but injury problems struck again, and he missed
four games (on the bright side, that is the LEAST he's ever missed
in his career). Still, he equaled or exceeded career highs in
every category, so he's teased us into, once again, waiting for
next year.
Bust
After a breakout 2003 in his first year as a full-time starter,
all the stars appeared to be aligned for an even bigger season
for Chris Draft (ATL). When
it was announced the Falcons were not only moving to a 4-3, but
it would be Draft, and not Keith Brooking, in the middle, his
stock soared. The results were, he still produced like a back-up
and missed some time due to injury. Nearly as disappointing was
Clark Haggans (PIT). After flashing
some pass rush ability as a back-up, many expected a big year
as the next successful plug-and-produce LB in the Steelers system,
replacing Jason Gildon. A huge Week One only raised expectations
for him, which he didn't come close to meeting, before injury
ended his season. Across from Haggans, Joey Porter (PIT) looked
to rebound after getting shot in the ass last year, but his bounce
back was not to his previous levels. One huge game skewed his
final ranking, as, overall, it was a very sub-par year for the
formerly ferocious pass rusher, who had his lowest tackle total
since becoming a starter. Most predicted a switch from weakside
to strongside for David Thornton
(IND) would sap his production
it did. Once valuable as a
stud pass rusher, Kevin Hardy
(CIN) can barely find a QB with a map anymore. Due to a slow rehab
from a career threatening hip injury, expectations were not high
for Rosevelt Colvin (NE). The
former stud pass rusher played every game, but his snaps were
limited and he finished with just 4.5 sacks and a handful of tackles
as a situational blitzer. While it is good to see him back, it
is unlikely he returns to his prior level of production. A knee
injury in the preseason cost Napoleon
Harris (OAK) two games and plagued him throughout the season.
Even once healthy, he was not productive. New DC Rob Ryan expected
to move him around to capitalize on his athleticism in 2004, but
the injury problems and struggles grasping the system contributed
to a lost season. After the free agent addition of Mark
Simoneau (PHI) made Jeremiah
Trotter (PHI) expendable a year earlier, the prodigal son
returned to the Eagles and it looked like a MLBBC was in the works.
After a vote of confidence for Simoneau as the starter from HC
Andy Reid, Simoneau did indeed start and receive most of the playing
time in the middle to start the season. Unfortunately for his
fantasy owners, his numbers didn't reflect it. After inconsistency
and injury removed Nate Wayne
(PHI) from the weakside spot, Simoneau slid over and Trotter returned
to the middle. Trotter looked solid and is likely to retain the
spot heading into next year, but the result for 2004 was inadequate
production from all three.
Flat
The most consistent top fantasy producing LB the last five years?
London Fletcher (BUF). Another
season, another 100+ tackles and assortment of big plays, making
him a regular among the Top 20, all the way up to 9th this past
season. Although he had another strong season and no sophomore
slump, Nick Barnett (GB) showed
no improvement, posting almost identical numbers. Some believe
he's a better fit for an outside spot. He's a tremendous young
player, but we may already have seen the best he can do in the
middle. While he showed improvement in his second year as a MLB,
Mike Peterson (JAX) still isn't
posting the huge tackle numbers he did on the weakside in Indianapolis.
He compensated for it with a career-high five sacks, putting him
back in the range we've seen from him before. He's not a huge
tackle numbers guy, and Brian Simmons
(CIN) hasn't repeated the success as a pass rusher he showed his
first full season as a starter when he had 6.5 sacks, but he does
enough to consistently remain in the 20-40 range each year.
Rookies
Former University of Miami teammates Jonathan
Vilma (NYJ) and D.J. Williams
(DEN) were viewed as the two best LBs coming out of the draft,
and ended up the first and second, respectively, top producing
fantasy rookie LBs. Vilma benefited from an early knee injury
to Sam Cowart, to which Vilma came on like Lou Gehrig to Cowart's
Wally Pipp. Vilma impressed with not only his play, but handling
calling the defense, and looks to be a long-time stud in the middle.
Williams had a solid year, but didn't demonstrate as much play-making
ability as his athleticism and collegiate performance dictates
he has. The Broncos might have been conservative with what they
asked of the rookie, so watch for this to develop, and Williams
to improve his stock with more big plays, in the future. Two other
highly-touted former college (Auburn) teammates, Karlos
Dansby (ARI) and Dontarrious
Thomas (MIN) had their seasons go in opposite directions.
Thomas earned the starting strongside job out of camp, but quickly
lost it due to inconsistency and missing assignments. When he
was sent to the bench Week Three, MLB E.J. Henderson got hurt
and Thomas had a huge game filling in for him. As the season went
on, he was back in the doghouse, relegated to special teams and
coming off the bench, despite lingering injuries to WLB Chris
Claiborne. Meanwhile, Dansby started slow while Denny Green evaluated
talent. By mid-season, he was locked in as the starter and ended
up with the most sacks (five) by a rookie LB. The loss of Nate
Webster created a hole in the middle for the Bengals and launched
a revolving door between Caleb Miller
(CIN) and Landon Johnson (CIN)
in trying to fill it. As Miller battled injury, Johnson finally
locked down the job late in the year. While Webster should be
back next year, Johnson showed he has a bright future. Teddy
Lehman (DET) was the third highest producing rookie LB
and had a solid season earning a starting job right out of the
gate. His future could be at MLB, where his production should
increase, because his upside as a playmaker on the outside seems
limited. Due to injuries, Lehman's fellow rookie teammate, Alex
Lewis (DET), was a pleasant surprise. He got some starts
and made some plays, but his upside is limited by his size and
the return of Boss Bailey next year. Undersized, but an explosive
edge rusher in college, the buzz around Demorrio
Williams (ATL) increased as the year went on. He could
end up being a huge steal out of the 4th Round, and should compete
for a starting role next season. Courtney
Watson (NO) won the MLB job in camp and after the first
month of the season, he was looking like a strong Rookie of the
Year candidate. However, a knee injury and getting in the HC Jim
Haslett's doghouse left him an inconsistent role player the rest
of the year, as Orlando Ruff took over the middle. Darryl
Smith (JAX) won a starting job, but it was on the strongside.
Along with limited athleticism, his potential doesn't look great.
He had limited action most of the season, but Niko
Koutouvides (SEA) was starting in the middle for Seattle
by the end of the season, including in their playoff game.
Defensive Linemen - Stats
Top Producer: Julius Peppers (CAR)
Breakout Player of the Year: James Hall (DET)
Rookie of the Year: Will Smith (NO)
Biggest Bust, Non Injury-Related: Mike Rucker (CAR)
Biggest Bust, Injury-Related: Michael Strahan (NYG)
Changing of the Guard
The first thing that jumps out about the DL final rankings is
the absence of Strahan and Rice, even Little and Rucker, near
the top. While Jason Taylor
(MIA) finished with enough points to be rated fifth, he had a
terribly inconsistent year and was saved by a few huge games.
The absence of Adewale Ogunleye and loss of Tim Bowens to injury
allowed defenses to focus on him. Depending on what Miami does
to rectify the situation up front, he will continue to struggle
and be challenged to remain among the elite fantasy ends. After
ending his rookie season early with a substance abuse violation
and then going through a sophomore slump, Julius
Peppers (CAR) is finally at the level most expected him
to achieve, the top producing DE in the league. He was unaffected
by some terrific problems with injury and inconsistency among
the other standout members of the Panthers DLine, and produced
fantastically despite being the biggest threat in the front four
all season. If he keeps his nose clean, he's a lock to be among
the Top 5 for a while. The other guy that looks like he's moved
into the elite to stay is Charles Grant
(NO). After a solid rookie season, he went to sleeper last year,
and continued to improve this past season. He cooled down around
mid-season, but between strong starts and finishes, he put it
all together in 2004.
Slow Starts and Fast Finishes Skew
Final Rankings
Their solid final rankings prevent the seasons of any of these
guys from being considered an overall bust, but a trio of top
ends gave owners some headaches this season. The speed Dwight
Freeney (IND) and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
(GB) bring to the table, specifically as pass rushers, have resulted
in them being put in everydown roles, despite being undersized.
The result is, if they aren't getting sacks, they aren't producing,
and that was the situation in the first half of the season for
both. Despite finishing 13th among DLs, KGB was an overall disappointment.
His final ranking was salvaged by a 26 point day in Week 17, which
benefited few of his IDP owners, as most fantasy seasons were
complete the prior week. Freeney had 4 sacks over the first 8
weeks and 12 the rest of the season. Although he led the league
with a career-high 16 sacks, lower tackle and forced fumble numbers
resulted in it not being his best fantasy season. While Simeon
Rice (TB) brings the complete package to the table, the
questions about his effort every game, much less every down, resurfaced
this year. Those questions that hung over his career in AZ didn't
follow him after his first season in TB, where he became an elite
end year in and year out from that point. However, the loss of
two key leaders on defense (John Lynch and Warren Sapp), as well
as a down year for the team, seemed to have his focus waning.
The result was an inconsistent and disappointing season, with
concerns about his motivation for next year.
Busts Galore
The toughest choice among award (or in this case, anti-award)
winners was most disappointing defensive lineman. There were a
lot to choose from, but one really stands out. After coming out
of nowhere to become one of the elite ends in the league, Mike
Rucker (CAR) simply disappeared in 2004. The team struggled
early and injuries, particularly the loss of Kris Jenkins, impacted
the DLine, but Julius Peppers overcame them to have a career year.
Rucker, on the other hand, never seemed to get his season started.
Two close runner-ups were former teammates Grant
Wistrom (SEA) and Leonard Little
(STL). Early in the season, Wistrom wasn't looking like the high
motor producer the Seahawks expected when they gave him a big
free agent deal, but a broken leg and subsequent reinjury kept
him off the field for more than half the season. Little played
like his lingering legal problems were on his mind more than getting
to the QB. Another undersized speedster, like Freeney and KGB,
his value relies on sacks. When he doesn't pile them up, as was
the case in 2004, he's a liability in your lineup. We've all been
waiting for age to finally catch up to Michael
Strahan (NYG), and while he had only one big game early
in the season, injury struck and he missed the second half of
the season. Another victim of the injury bug was John
Abraham (NYJ). After ending 2003 with healthy problems,
Abraham appeared to have adjusted easily to new DC Donnie Henderson's
scheme, and was back to top end production. However, injury problems
returned, and he didn't do much in a few games before missing
the last quarter of the season. A few huge games propped him up
enough to finish the season ranked 23rd, but he was out for both
the fantasy and real playoffs, when his fantasy and real owners
needed him most. In a classic case of his real value exceeding
his fantasy production, Jevon Kearse
(PHI) was an important part of the Eagles defense, but injuries
were again a problem, and his numbers were hardly "freakish".
He killed his IDP owners with a brutal second half. Expectations
were tempered for Adewale Ogunleye
(CHI) after joining the Bears and no longer having Jason Taylor
diverting the focus of blockers on the other end, as well as not
being in shape after holding out all preseason, but a mysterious
and lingering leg injury were most responsible for his sporadic
and low production. A new team and scheme weren't the concern
for Warren Sapp (OAK) so much
as his age and declining production. Those concerns were validated.
A lot of observers (well, me, at least) thought Marcellus
Wiley (DAL) was put in a situation on the Cowboys where
he was set up to revive his career. Instead, he looked worse than
ever and was a tremendous flop. If not for the moderate expectations
because of his last few underachieving years, he would have been
my Bust of the Year. Remember just a couple of years ago when
Gary Walker (HOU) was emerging
as an exciting two-way threat, a stout run defender with some
pass rush ability, who was suppose to be the lynchpin up front
of the expansion Texans 3-4 scheme? Yeah, neither do I. Courtney
Brown (CLE), what more can you say, he makes Dan Morgan
look like Brett Favre. Meanwhile, Andre
Carter (SF) is looking like the next Courtney Brown.
Not Flukes
While there were plenty of promising DL names to be disappointed
about in 2004, a few proved their breakout 2003 was no fluke,
and took the step to the next level. Aside from the previously
discussed Charles Grant, Bert Berry
(AZ) and Aaron Schobel (BUF)
were two other players who look like they can be counted on to
be top producers for years to come. The concerns with Berry were
magnified by his moves to both a full-time role and a new team
with less support, but he came through with an even bigger season.
A double-digit sack season for a DT is unusual. After posting
one as rookie, while getting the advantage of some work at DE,
it seemed unlikely Kevin Williams
(MIN), sequestered to the interior with the addition of rookie
Kenechi Udeze, would repeat. Instead, he did even better things
this past season and replaces Warren Sapp as the rare DT capable
of elite production and claims the crown from Kris Jenkins, in
real football terms, as the best DT in the game. While he didn't
repeat his record-breaking 2003 performance, Shaun
Ellis (NYJ) had another solid season. Another slow starter,
he ended strong and finished with 9.5 sacks, showing he is a legit
pass rush threat as an anchor end.
Flukeness TBD in 2005
With all the busts, injuries, and cold streaks among the usual
top producers, this was the Year of the Waiver Wire for DLinemen.
A lot of guys who may not even had a home at the start of the
year on average-sized dynasty rosters exploded in 2004. Leading
the way was James Hall (DET).
Lost in a collection of has-beens and never-wases at end for the
Lions, Hall stepped up and had the first double-digit sack season
for the team since back when Robert Porcher was still really good.
Drafted in 2003 to be the elusive consistent compliment to Michael
Strahan on the other side, sophomore Osi
Umenyiora (NYG) was looking like just another disappointment.
However When Strahan went down, Umenyiora blew up. He finished
11th overall, among DLinemen, on the year, despite not having
a starting job until almost mid-season. Lack of a starting job
didn't stop Robert Mathis (IND),
who finished right behind Umenyiora, despite only being a situational
pass rusher. Dynasty leaguers beware Mathis really is a one-trick
pony. He could bulk up and get a regular job down the line, but,
a la an N.D. Kalu, it would probably cost him sacks, as he'd be
tired out taking a beating playing everydown. In his first full
season as a starter in 2003, Alex Brown
(CHI) proved better against the run than expected, but didn't
display the pass rush talent he did in college. This past season,
Brown took a step forward as a pass rusher, but still only finished
with 7 sacks. His numbers were inflated by a fluke 4 sack game,
as well. With the DLine looking much improved for next season,
Brown will have the opportunity to prove he is for real.
Just Justin
It's time to lower the expectations for Justin
Smith (CIN) and realize while he'll never be the elite
pass rusher he was drafted so highly to become, he is a solid
and consistent player.
Rookies
With two top ends in place, the ETA for Will
Smith (NO) looked to be a year or two down the line. However,
after an impressive camp, there was immediately talk he would
be worked to the rotation regularly, including put in situations
like rush LB on passing downs to immediately utilize his talents.
The hype proved worth it, as Smith had 8 sacks and has already
forced the Saints to find way to get him into the lineup more.
Like Grant before him, he's on the fast track to studdom. The
book on Darnell Dockett (AZ)
was he had 1st round talent, but too much baggage, causing him
to fall to the third round. Never scared off by this type of player,
HC Denny Green appears to have found another undervalued gem,
as Dockett kept his nose clean, attitude in check, and excelled
on the field. Dockett saw some time at DE, but as long as his
eligibility remains at DT, he has the upside to be a top producer
as an interior lineman. The surprise among rookies was Jared
Allen (KC), who was an undrafted rookie free agent from
Idaho State. He led all rookies with 9 sacks. As a situational
pass rusher, he excelled, but when moved into the starting lineup,
his production declined while he adjusted. Immediately installed
as the starting right end, Kenechi
Udeze (MIN) had an inconsistent year and was a bit of a
disappointment for those hoping he'd be a stud pass rusher out
of the box, but his future is bright.
Defensive Backs - Stats
Top Producer: Ed Reed (BAL)
Breakout Player of the Year: Terrence McGee (BUF)
Rookie of the Year: Dunta Robinson (HOU)
Biggest Bust, Non Injury-Related: Greg Wesley (KC)
Biggest Bust, Injury-Related: Adam Archuleta (STL)
A Tale of Two Safeties
Heading into the 2002 Draft, all the buzz was about how a playmaking
safety from Oklahoma would revolutionize the position. The Ravens
coveted him, but he was drafted with the 9th pick overall. After
missing out on some other players they rated higher, they settled
for the allegedly next best safety with the 24th pick. Fast forward
to 2004 and it is Ed Reed (BAL)
who is no longer the red-headed stepchild in the shadow of Roy
Williams (DAL), but it is Reed who is the best real and
fantasy defensive back in the NFL, while Williams, no doubt still
a fine safety, hasn't replicated the statistical success of his
rookie season.
Welcome Back
He hasn't come close to double-digit picks again (although his
3 this past season were the second highest season total of his
career), but Ronde Barber (TB)
returned to the fantasy elite with nice stats across the board.
After down years in 2003, Adrian Wilson
(AZ) and Mike Green (CHI) were
back among the top producers.
Where Did You Go?
After 16 interceptions in the previous two years Tony
Parrish (SF), once known only for his hard-hitting, was
looking like a fixture among the top fantasy DBs. However, deficiencies
and injuries in the San Francisco secondary had him not focusing
on just his job, but worrying about others, spreading him too
thin and putting him back in the second tier. While he technically
did not miss a game, a variety of injuries plagued Adam
Archuleta (STL) limiting him to certain packages and lowering
his playing time and effectiveness. He still finished in the Top
50, but was not the playmaking every week starter he had been
establishing himself as. After a career year, Greg
Wesley (KC) was the classic fantasy trap. His numbers returned
almost exactly to the range he had been at the prior several years.
Change of Scenery
Already one of the top tackling CBs in the league in Buffalo,
the knock on Antoine Winfield
(MIN) was his ability to get the ball at his size. A high-powered
Viking offense was the answer, as he posted a career-high 3 picks
with opponents having to go to the air often. Labeled a first
round bust in New England, a new address led to a breakout season
for Tebucky Jones (NO), shattering
his previous top tackle total for a season. After coming out of
college with plenty of hype, Shawn
Springs (WAS) had an erratic and injury-prone career with
Seattle. The move to the Redskins has revitalized his career,
where they capitalized on his athleticism in the pass rush, resulting
in 6 sacks, quadrupling his career total of 1.5 (all in 2003).
He also was back to picking off passes, grabbing 5, the most he
had in a season since 1999. While his reputation exceeds his achievement
on the actual football field, Champ
Bailey (DEN) remained consistent as usual in fantasy production.
His early season involvement on offense teased fantasy owners
with the potential of some unexpected extra points, but it was
just more Shannanigans, as he only caught 1 pass on the season.
Stacked Secondaries
The Eagles made the right choice in letting Bobby
Taylor (SEA) and Troy Vincent
(BUF) go. Both had injury-plagued seasons (although Vincent came
on strong when healthy at the end of the year after moving to
FS). Their young corners Sheldon Brown
and Lito Sheppard were playmakers
in their first full season as starters. FS Brian
Dawkins returned from injury to Pro Bowl form and Michael
Lewis quietly remains one of the bright young SS in the
league. All four were in the Top 40.
The Seahawks had all four of their starters in the Top 50. Corners
Marcus Trufant and Ken
Lucas were in the Top 15, one and two (tied) in the NFC
in picks, while hard-hitting FS Ken Hamlin was in the Top 30.
Rookie Michael Boulware showed
no problems transitioning to the NFL, much less a new position,
as he was a playmaker before he even took over the starting job.
The man he replaced, Terreal Bierria,
was doing a nice job and ended the season in the Top 100.
Rookies
It took him a few weeks to get acclimated, but Sean
Taylor (WAS) gave plenty of glimpses he will live up to
huge his potential. Dunta Robinson
(HOU) is already the real deal. Unfortunately, that means teams
will be less likely to test him, impacting his picks, but he is
also strong in run support, so tackle numbers should still be
strong. The team is not done exploring his potential, and he began
to get more involved as a pass rusher late in the year. This guy
is a playmaker with excellent fantasy potential even if he doesn't
see as many passes his way next year. A real steal later in the
draft for the Bengals, Madieu Williams
(CIN) excelled wherever they lined him up, and they lined him
up at every secondary position. His tremendous versatility makes
his future that much more promising. The Jets rotated their free
safeties most of the season, but Erik
Coleman (NYJ) emerged as the top fantasy producer. Nathan
Vashar (CHI) maybe too small to be a standout starter,
but his playmaking ability makes him the ideal third corner. Chris
Gamble (CAR) is still learning to play corner, but his
tremendous athleticism led to six picks, tying him for the rookie
lead.
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