Every rookie pick is an investment in your dynasty team. Due to
supply (limited pool of starters) and demand (better scoring in
most leagues), offensive players are where you have to devote most
of your resources. So picking defensive players typically assumes
more risk, no matter where you draft them. No one wants to miss
out on the next supposedly undersized RB that rushes for 1,000 yards
or the too-slow rookie WR that doesn't wait for his third year to
break out. So from that investment perspective, here's how this
year's crop of rookie defensive players can be viewed.
Blue Chips
The best combination of elite talent, NFL measurables, and opportunity.
All these players have a flaw this year – I don’t
think Laurinaitis has elite talent and the others are limited
(at least for this season) by position, but this group is still
the top shelf in this class.
Rey Maualuga,
CIN – SLB (eventually MLB)
First round talent that fell to the third pick of the second round
because of concerns about his off-field behavior and that he may
be just a two-down run stopper on the field. Maualuga is reunited
with former collegiate teammate Keith Rivers, who should help
ease his transition. Rivers, last year’s first round pick,
is locked in at WLB and the team is expected to retain the solid,
but unspectacular, Dhani Jones at MLB this season. That leaves
Maualuga competing for the fantasy-unfriendly SLB spot. Unless
he supplants Jones in the middle this season, he could be a fantasy
non-factor in redraft leagues, although I wouldn’t be surprised
to see him bump Jones sooner rather than later. He is my top IDP
in rookie drafts for dynasty leagues. Forget concerns about his
physical limitations on the field and mental ones off it, he is
a monster in pads and will be an impact player. Marvin Lewis finally
has a player like Ray Lewis who can be both the emotional and
physical leader on the field.
Aaron
Curry, SEA – SLB
Selected with the fourth overall pick, the outstanding athletic
specimen was the first defensive player selected in the 2009 draft
and considered by many the top overall prospect in the draft.
He moves in to the SLB spot vacated by the move of Julian Peterson
to Detroit. Curry’s speed will help him post some tackle
numbers, but playing SLB will make his value rely strongly on
turning in big plays (sacks, picks, etc.). He may not be as valuable
in tackle-heavy scoring systems that don’t reward those
plays. He should be one of the top three IDPs selected in rookie
drafts for dynasty leagues, but has significantly less value in
redraft and, depending on your lineup requirements, won’t
necessarily be an automatic starter every week his first season.
He will be an impact player, but may have more value in real NFL
terms than as a fantasy player.
James
Laurinaitis, STL – MLB
He is expected to start in the middle from Week One, moving Will
Witherspoon to the WLB position he played back at Carolina. I
don’t think Laurinaitis is a special player, but he is good
enough to be a solid starter and regularly post 100-tackle seasons.
More of a high-motor guy who gives great effort than a natural
talent. He should be one of the top three IDPs selected in rookie
dynasty drafts and be a weekly starter in all formats.
Brian
Cushing, HOU – SLB
Selected with the 15th pick overall, it is understandable why
he was the first of the four highly-touted Trojan linebackers
to go. Cushing has the best combination of talent and athletic
ability of the group, and probably of any LB other than Aaron
Curry in the draft. Despite the addition of Cato June and the
return of Zac Diles, who started at SLB last season, from a broken
leg late last season, the team appears to be handing Cushing the
starting job on the strong side. Diles and June are left to compete
with Xavier Adibi, the favorite at WLB. While SLB is typically
less fantasy-friendly, don’t discount Cushing. Zac Diles
was able to lead the team in tackles for much of the season at
SLB due to benefitting from the presence of DE Mario Williams.
Williams demands a double team on most plays, frequently with
the TE chipping. As the SLB will typically be on the TE side,
that player now frequently has one less potential blocker coming
down on him than usual. Also, this team is desperate to improve
their pass rush. The addition of DE Antonio Smith and versatile
rookie Connor Barwin will help address that up front, but the
team has an asset in Cushing from the edge who they will pick
spots for on blitzes, as well. Laurinaitis is the only rookie
LB I like better in a redraft league.
Overvalued
There's no greater buyer's remorse than remembering the defensive
player you selected early to pass on an Anquan Boldin when he
was a rookie. The following players may go higher than they should
due to name recognition or their real NFL draft position. They
may be talented and be productive fantasy players, but relative
to their potential and/or the situation they landed in, you might
be better taking a flyer on another offensive player and seeing
if they fall further.
Tyson
Jackson, KC – DE
A 300-pound end in a 3-4 scheme is a fantasy pariah, regardless
of his value in real NFL terms. The lowest potential for the first
defensive player selected in the NFL draft since Dewayne Robertson
in 2003.
Robert
Ayers, DEN – OLB
Short and stock with good fundamentals, he’s physically
a Hugh Douglas clone. I like his potential as an end, but he’s
miscast as an OLB in Denver’s new 3-4. Wait until he busts
in pick him up in a trade as a throw-in a couple years down the
road before he breaks out in a different situation, a la Calvin
Pace.
William
“Clay” Matthews III, GB – ROLB
He was a walk-on at USC and didn’t become a regular starter
until halfway through his senior season, but Matthews rode his
bloodlines and impressive combine to sneaking in the first round
of the draft. His success as a pass rusher in the “Elephant”
role, as a DE/OLB tweener, finally got him on the field regularly
his last year in college. Interestingly, the Packers are working
their sack leader, former DE Aaron Kampman, exclusively at LOLB,
the spot that usually drops back in coverage. ROLB, usually the
rush spot as the blind side for most QBs (i.e. the right-handed
ones), appears to be a competition between Matthews and converted
DE Jeremy Thompson. A hamstring injury to Matthews has given Thompson
most of the reps with the first unit in OTAs so far. He should
also be a special teams standout, as he thrived on all the special
teams in college. Of course, that adds little to his fantasy value.
Matthews oozes the dreaded p-word, “potential”, but
is more athlete than football player at this point. He was drafted
in the first round because he’s a workout warrior, not for
what he did on the field. Here is what tells me what I need to
know about Matthews: the Patriots traded them the pick that the
Packers used to select him. That means despite his own needs at
LB, Bill Belichick clearly didn’t see Matthews as the future
impact player that at least Ted Thompson does. Ignore him in all
but the deepest redraft leagues and don’t be fooled by his
real NFL draft position in rookie dynasty drafts. Even if he pans
out, his tackle numbers in a 3-4 will be minimal, so he’ll
need to become a regular double-digit sack guy to have value.
Louis
Delmas, DET – FS
The big hitter from Western Michigan displays the instincts, leadership
and aggression to be a Brian Dawkins-type player, but probably
lacks the measurables to achieve that level. While he’s
labeled a free safety, which typically has a less fantasy-friendly
connotation, the safeties are interchangeable and have played
aggressive roles in the previous schemes of both HC Jim Schwartz
(as a DC) and DC Gunther Cunningham. His redraft value is all
but assured. With the trade of Gerald Alexander, Delmas appears
already locked in to a starting role from Week One. More football
player than athlete, I’m not convinced he has the athleticism
to be an elite player. I’m a bit torn on this rating, because
he will have rare rookie IDP DB redraft value, albeit probably
not as much as some wily veterans that people will overlook for
a new name. For dynasty leagues, I don’t think people have
evaluated the risk and reach for him based just on being the first
safety selected in the NFL draft. I’d love the pick if you
could land him later in redraft or dynasty, but have to go with
a soft overvalue rating based on where he has been going.
Everette
Brown, CAR – DE
Undersized ends need elite speed and explosion to overcome their
deficiencies. Brown is not the next Dwight
Freeney. Better than Tyler
Brayton, but Charles
Johnson is the best DE not named Julius Peppers to have from
Carolina.
Connor Barwin, CIN – OLB/DE tweener
One of the most versatile players in the draft, Barwin had success
on the other side of the ball as a TE before an all-conference
performance at DE his senior season, posting 16 TFL and 11 sacks.
He spent some a couple years on the Bearcats basketball team,
for good measure, as well. He blew them away at the combine with
an outstanding performance that shot him in to Day One. While
it wasn’t the same staff, the Texans didn’t have success
with their last mid-major tweener and workout warrior, Jason Babin.
Barwin is raw and needs to bulk up to handle playing a true end.
He’s penciled in as a situational pass rusher and they could
find some other uses for him in goal-line packages, but he’ll
remain more of trick pony than a workhorse until, if, he finds
his niche at the next level.
Undervalued
It's hard to be a "sleeper" when you're taken early
in the NFL draft, but even some Day One picks carry question marks
or come into situations that may have other fantasy owners skittish
about their outlook. However, they are talented players with great
upside that will leave you with bargains falling farther than
they should and outperforming their fantasy draft position. This
doesn't mean reach for them early, but keep an eye out for them
as potential bargains where they fall relative to your league.
Others are later round picks who
Brian
Orakpo, WAS – OLB/DE tweener
A workout warrior (actually labeled the top one in college football
in a column by ESPN’s Bruce Feldman last year), Orakpo definitely
passes the eye ball test. He worked his way to a starting role
at DE his junior year and had a solid performance, but missed
four games due to a right knee sprain. As a redshirt senior in
2008, he collected pretty much every conference and national award
for a defensive player with an impressive, but unspectacular,
11.5 sacks (sixth in FBS on a Longhorn team that led FBS in total
sacks). Also missed a game with a left knee injury, so durability
is a bit of a concern.
Orakpo got by on athleticism in college and needs to improve
his technical skills to see his success translate at the next
level. His transition is being made harder by the decision to
put him in a tweener role right out of the box, always a risky
proposition for a young player. The plan appears to be to have
him play with his hand off the ground in run situations and pin
his ears back out of a three-point stance on third down. If listed
as a DE by your league, he may be significantly undervalued, as
he will put up better tackle numbers than a lot of ends. However,
if he’s only eligible at LB in your league, he’ll
be overvalued as a rookie. Removing position from the equation,
he generally seems to be going a bit lower than expected in dynasty
drafts for a player who has the potential to be the next Terrell
Suggs.
Patrick
Chung, NE – S
After trading away their first round pick, the Patriots made Chung
their first pick of the 2009 draft with the second selection in
the second round, a pick from the Chiefs as part of the package
that moved Matt Cassel. With Rodney Harrison’s career appearing
over, HC Bill Belichick looks to replace him with a player most
viewed as the top prototypical strong safety in the draft. One
of the strongest defensive backs in the draft, he should definitely
be able to replace some of the big hits that were Harrison’s
trademark. Chung won’t be an asset in coverage, but brings
the versatility Belichick craves in having shown some ability
as a blitzer and a top special team performer, including some
return experience. He’ll be a bit limited by the rotation
as a rookie, hence a risky redraft play, but should quickly establish
himself as the best tackler in the secondary and exposure to more
packages. Crafty fantasy players aren’t letting Chung slip
by in rookie drafts, but they aren’t paying a premium and
he still remains under the radar to most, why I still consider
him as undervalued.
Mike Mitchell,
OAK – S
Emerged from anonymity with an unbelievable Pro Day that propelled
the Ohio University product to the second round. The Raiders selecting
him only fueled the doubters, but Mitchell flashed some ability
in college and clearly has the athletic ability to play at the
next level. He didn’t leave a good first impression at minicamp
and he very well may be the next Derrick Gibson, but I think he’s
worth the risk where he’s falling in dynasty rookie drafts.
Lawrence
Sidbury Jr., ATL – DE
Overlooked at Richmond, the two-time all-conference performer
helped the Spiders win the FCS National Championship with 11.5
sacks on the season, including four in the championship game.
He built on a strong week of practice at the Shrine Game with
an excellent overall performance at the Combine. He is a bit shorter
than ideal (slightly under 6’4”), but compensates
for it with long arms and big hands, allowing him to keep blockers
off him and bat down passes. He is considered a bit of tweener,
but is his strong suit is pinning his ears back and getting after
the QB out of a three-point stance. However, he needs to build
some lower body strength to improve his explosion and play with
leverage.
L-Sid is my top dynasty sleeper among DEs, I love this pick by
Atlanta and the fit. Former first-round pick Jamaal Anderson is
a bust at least as a pass rusher, if not a complete one. On the
other side, John Abraham is one of the elite pass rushers in the
league, but is the wrong side of 30 and overdue for an injury.
Sidbury could surprise in redrafts as a pass rush specialist with
room for more if Abraham misses time. He is even more appealing
in dynasty rookie drafts where more recognizable names are going
earlier.
Jarron
Gilbert, CHI – DT
He rocketed up draft boards from relative anonymity at San Jose
State after being the WAC co-Defensive Player of the Year, leading
the nation with 22 TFL and leading his team with 9.5 sacks at
defensive tackle. A strong week of practice leading up to the
Shrine Game solidified his status among scouts, although a sprained
ankle early in the game limited him. A freakish athlete, he didn’t
disappoint at the Combine with an outstanding performance. A mild
surprise that he fell out of Day One, Bears GM Jerry Angelo was
ecstatic to scoop him up with the fourth pick in the third round,
a pick they gained by trading out of the second round with the
Seahawks the previous day.
There seems to be concern his senior season was a bit of a fluke,
that he’s a tweener, and that his height could pose a problem
as an interior lineman. As opposed to his senior season being
a fluke, Gilbert finally settled in and was able to begin realizing
his massive potential. He packed on almost 50 pounds through his
collegiate career and bounced around the line before settling
in at DT his final year. He will need to learn to play with better
leverage and his frame can support some more weight, but his height
ultimately won’t be a liability. He projects to back up Tommie
Harris at the three-technique, but the Bears will capitalize
on his ability to play up and down the line, as well as look for
him to block some kicks on special teams. He should work his way
in to the rotation quickly, but provide just sporadic production
as a rookie, although Harris has been a bit fragile the last couple
years. For the long term, he is the rare interior lineman with
the ability to be a productive fantasy player. He is the second
coming of Kevin
Williams, from his size and measurables right down to the
skepticism about his breakout senior year.
Cody Brown,
AZ – OLB
A classic tweener who quietly was a huge part of UConn’s
success snuck in to the second round. I’m not a fan of tweener
OLBs without top measurables, but Brown is flying so low under
the radar it won’t take much success for him to have value.
Market Performers
Talented players whose value should be commensurate with where
they are drafted in fantasy leagues. They have a strong outlook,
even those whose situation immediately falls short of ideal and/or
who need time to develop.
Aaron
Maybin, BUF – DE
He had experience working in pass coverage and some project him
as a tweener because he doesn’t yet have the bulk to be
a three-down end, but the Bills brought Maybin in to play end.
His value will be low in redraft, as he should be limited to a
pass rush specialist his rookie season while he bulks up and learns
the league. However, he is a solid pick in dynasty leagues where
he has potential for double-digit sacks as a full-time player
in a year or two. The safest pick to succeed as a pure DE in this
rookie class.
Larry
English, SD – OLB
A sack machine in college, he rocketed up draft boards through
his MAC Defensive Player of the Year performance as a DE at NIU
and though a strong week at the Senior Bowl. He isn’t the
freakish athletic specimen that Shawne Merriman is, the man he
is expected to eventually replace, but could be the next LaMarr
Woodley, a pass rush specialist with enough talent to be a three-down
player. He should be worked in the rotation immediately and considering
Merriman’s knee problems almost cost him his career already,
his role could become much more significant at any minute his
rookie year.
William
Moore, ATL – SS
A disappointing injury-plagued senior season had him last until
late in the second round, but Moore is a prototypical SS who should
become an every-week starter in most fantasy leagues as a rookie
with upside to be a top-five stud at the position. In the perfect
situation, he is the safest pick at S in this class.
Michael
Johnson, CIN – DE
The way Johnson has flown off draft boards early in dynasty rookie
drafts, I was almost tempted to classify him as “Overvalued”,
but assume most reaching for a third-round pick in the NFL draft
as early as the first rookie DE taken have concluded the same
thing I have – great upside, ideal situation. Coming in
to the 2008 season, Johnson was widely regarded as one of the
top NFL prospects overall. Of the two major scouting services,
National ranked Johnson as the top prospect overall and Blesto
had him as the second-rated defensive end. Despite all-conference
recognition while posting 9 sacks and 17.5 TFL, his final collegiate
season was considered a bit of a disappointment as his effort
and consistency were questioned. Johnson has recently commented
that he played through the season with a sports hernia, but if
that was revealed to teams during the interview process, it still
didn’t alleviate concerns. He fell to the third round despite
an excellent all-around performance at the Combine. Johnson stood
out during OTAs, flashing his freakish athleticism and versatility
to not only also play as a linebacker with his hand off the ground,
but as an interior lineman too. At a minimum his rookie year,
Johnson should see work as a pass rush specialist, but the competition
is weak in Cincinnati and I expect him to be starting before the
end of the year and be well worth an early rookie pick in dynasty
drafts.
Clint
Sintim, NYG – OLB
Lacks some name recognition with casual fans due to being overshadowed
by Aaron Curry in his own conference and nationally by the overexposure
of the USC linebackers, as well as having played for a below average
Cavalier team last season, but Sintim is a great OLB prospect.
A sack machine in college, he led the ACC with 11 his senior year
and 27 for his career at Virginia. Probably best fit would be
as a pass-rushing ROLB in a 3-4, but the Giants will look to utilize
his pass rush skills on third downs. Projected as a SLB, he has
some work to do to become serviceable in pass coverage. He’s
battling journeyman Danny Clark to start and Sintim will probably
see most of his work as a pass rush specialist in certain packages
while he develops as a complete linebacker. He has some sleeper
potential in redrafts, but more likely will have little value
this year with great upside in dynasty leagues.
Scott
McKillop, SF – ILB
The Big East Defensive Player of the Year was an absolute tackling
machine in college. A little shorter than ideal, he has decent
size, but needs to add strength and will have a chance to develop
with Takeo Spikes slated as the starter next to Patrick Willis
for this season. Little to no value in redraft leagues, but I
really like his dynasty potential to be a poor man’s Zach
Thomas posting great tackle numbers as a two-down linebacker.
I love his situation playing for one of the great middle linebackers
of all-time in HC Mike Singletary, who clearly knows what it take
to succeed as an undersized and athletically limited player, and
benefitting from playing next to Willis.
Underperformers
Some middle round picks that were solid collegiate performers,
generally where you find quality sleepers, but due to situation
and/or potential, don't have promising long term outlooks.
DeAndre
Levy, DET – LB
The buzz about Levy as the MLB of the future was quickly killed
with the addition of former Steeler Larry Foote. Even without
the addition of Foote, Levy played OLB in college and is a bit
undersized for the middle. HC Jim Schwartz apparently believes
his speed and hitting can overcome that, but he was no lock to
get the job. Jordon Dizon, last year’s future MLB, has similar
limitations, but is from a different regime, so Levy should have
an advantage over him in the competition, but ultimately I don’t
see either as the answer. On the outside, the team added Julian
Petersen and have Ernie Sims on the weak side, so the opportunities
definitely aren’t there, barring injury. Levy is a nice
fit as a utility player who can back up all three positions, see
time in pass packages, and be a special teams ace, but doesn’t
have a high ceiling as a full-time player and was a reach in the
third round.
Paul Kruger,
BAL – DE/OLB tweener
With just one kidney as the result of a childhood car accident,
being the survivor of two stab wounds to the stomach, gone on
a two-year religious mission, and a perfect season with Utah under
his belt, Kruger has had more life experiences at 23 than most
people have in a lifetime. His pro football career could be as
challenging as any of those things. He doesn’t have the
measurables and athleticism to be a pass rush threat in a 3-4,
so I don’t know why Baltimore is wasting time trying to
take him down that path. Bulking up and playing a 3-4 end or 4-3
under tackle is where he should be developed, and neither will
make him fantasy friendly.
Jarius
Byrd, BUF – FS
Considered a significant reach in the second round, he converts
from CB to a great opportunity to compete for a starting FS role.
I don’t think see his ceiling as that high and as he hasn’t
signed as we go to press, he isn’t helping his short-term
outlook.
Kyle Moore,
TB – DE
Without the athleticism or upside to ever be a solid pass rush
threat, his ceiling looks like a career back-up, or maybe a short
stint as a starting anchor end, and useless to a fantasy team.
Matt Shaughnessy,
OAK – DE
Ditto above. Add to that the brain trust of the Raiders selected
him and he’s even less appealing.
Kaluka
Maiava, CLE – ILB (3-4)
The smallest and least propagandized of the highly-touted USC
LB foursome in this year’s draft lasted until the fourth
round. The situation is ideal, with one of their starters inside
(Andra Davis) having just departed and a new head coach with no
loyalty to the existing roster, but Maiava needs to bulk up without
sacrificing any of his speed or agility if he ever wants to start
in this league. He can be ignored in redrafts and isn’t
worth a roster spot in all but the deepest dynasty leagues. Check
up on him next year, but special teams ace and back-up look like
his career ceiling.
Speculative
Due to the limited starting lineup requirements and lack of scarcity
at IDP positions (in most leagues), taking a flyer on defensive
players in isn’t a great strategy. These guys could be late
round picks in deep leagues or, in most cases, waiver wire material.
However, they have nice upside, or are in a situation to have
value as rookie, or both.
David
Veikune, CLE – ILB
A high-motor guy who progressed from JUCO transfer to starter
and all-conference honors as an undersized DE his final season.
Now he’s asked to move to ILB where there is depth and talent,
so his short term prospects aren’t great. For the long term,
don’t underestimate a Mangini mancrush. The HC is loyal
to a fault to “his guys” Veikune became one in the
second round.
Darcel
McBath, DEN – FS
Aggressive FS in a great situation to develop behind band-aid
Brian Dawkins in a Denver defense that is transitioning under
first-year HC Josh McDaniels. Little to no redraft value, unless
Dawkins is hurt, but solid outlook in dynasty leagues.
Jason
Williams, DAL – OLB
The immediate reaction when Dallas made Williams the first FCS
player selected in the draft in the third round was that the Cowboys
had reached for him, mostly because most had never heard of him.
A Combine snub out Western Illinois, he was a consensus FCS All-American
who tied the NCAA record with 17 forced fumbles. He is slated
for mostly special teams work in 2009, but also competing with
Bobby Carpenter for work in pass packages. While he’ll have
little to no value in redraft leagues, he is a nice guy to stash
on a taxi squad or look for on the waiver wire in a year or two.
Kevin
Ellison, SD – SS
A converted running back, Ellison became the physical presence
in the USC defensive backfield. He has battled knee problems throughout
his career that sapped him of superior athleticism. He tore an
ACL and broke his left leg in 2005, had it tweaked in 2007, and
missed several games with a torn meniscus in his other knee in
2008. There has been some thought he could replace Clinton Hart
as the starting strong safety, but a holdout (as we go to press
in late July) with less than desirable speed and injury concerns
isn’t appealing to fantasy owners.
Chip Vaughn,
NO – SS
Great potential, but stuck behind Roman Harper. He should be able
to lock down a job as a starting SS when he finally gets the chance.
Marcus
Freeman, CHI – OLB
Overshadowed in college by Buckeye teammate James Laurinaitis,
but was just as productive and well-regarded among opponents.
He played both outside spots at Ohio State and can play the middle,
as well, projecting as a three-down WLB who is strong in coverage.
After the 2007 season, Freeman was in the debate for the second
best OLB prospect behind Aaron Curry and there was some discussion
about him declaring early. However, he returned in 2008, but didn’t
live up to expectations while hampered with ankle problems during
the season. Strong performances at the Combine and his Pro Day
appeared to be moving Freeman back up draft boards, but he lasted
until the fifth round.
He is my top dynasty sleeper among rookie LBs, I love this pick
for Chicago. If GM Jerry Angelo is good at one thing, it’s
finding defensive talent in the mid-rounds. Freeman has some skills
and great athleticism, but needs to bulk up and be a more physical
player. He is in the perfect position to do this, learning behind
one of the best and most physical linebackers in the league, Lance
Briggs, the man who scout Jeff Shiver (who tracked Freeman for
the Bears) said Freeman reminded him of. He’ll do nothing
but play special teams for at least a year, so he’s worthless
in redraft. Currently, even his long-term outlook is shaky, as
Freeman is under contract for another five years. Of course, NFL
stands for Not For Long. The most likely situation would involve
Urlacher sputtering out in the next year or two and Briggs moving
to the middle, opening up WLB for Freeman. Now there’s a
lot of variables in the situation, hence his value is purely speculative
at this point, but a name to keep in mind for the deepest of dynasty
leagues or next year.
Jeremy Jarmon, WAS – DE
After being ruled ineligible for his senior season by the NCAA
due to testing positive for a banned substance, Jarmon declared
for the supplemental draft in mid-July. The Redskins got him for
a third-round pick, beating several teams who submitted fourth-round
claims according to the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter.
Already carrying an unsculpted 280 pounds, he projects as more
of a run-stopper on the left side, but reportedly ran a 4.76 at
Kentucky’s Pro Day and left as third in career sacks at
Kentucky, so he has some pass rush potential too. He had a bit
of down year his final season in 2008, posting 10 TFL and 4.5
sacks after 13.5 TFL and 9 sacks as a redshirt sophomore in 2007.
Regardless, he still considered leaving early and sought a draft
grade from the NFL Advisory Committee. After receiving a fourth-
or fifth-round grade, Jarmon decided to return before the failed
drug test occurred after the draft, leaving him no choice but
to declare for the supplement draft. The circumstances he came
out under leaves him well behind where other rookies are at this
point, so he should have little to no impact this year. A name
to file away for next season or keep an eye on in deep dynasty
leagues.
Penny Stocks
Guys with no draft value right now, but with the chance to surprise
down the road.
Tyrone
McKenzie, NE – LB
A torn right ACL during minicamp ended his first season before
it started. Uber-productive linebacker literally wherever he played,
bouncing around schools and from middle to strong side. Speed
was a concern prior to the injury, but it didn’t stop the
Patriots from adding him in the third round. Interesting prospect
to revisit in a year.
Gerald
McRath, TEN – LB
A tenacious and tremendously productive player at MLB for Southern
Mississippi, he needs to add some bulk to play on Sundays. He
is a liability in coverage, but if he can learn, he has the rest
of the skills and athleticism to be a three-down player. Probably
best suited for WLB in a Tampa-2, he has a future in the league,
but not for a couple years.
Jasper
Brinkley, MIN – MLB
The Vikings continue to largely ignore having quality back-ups
at LB despite paying the price for it with injuries the last few
years. Brinkley was a very good player in college and could be
a quality two-down MLB if pressed in to service, but that is probably
his ceiling and why he fell to the fifth round.
Darryl Beckwith, SD – ILB
After being the leader of the BCS champion LSU as a junior in
the 2007 season and projecting to be a mid-round pick in the 2008
draft, Beckwith chose to return for his final season. He suffered
a knee injury early in the season and although he missed just
two games, a disappointing season for him and the Tigers was followed
by concerns about his knee as he prepared for the draft. He went
undrafted and the Chargers were the only team to call him about
signing as a free agent. Fast forward to a few days ago and with
the release of Matt Wilhelm, it appears he will hang on to a roster
spot. Although he buried on the depth chart for the time being
and his ceiling is as a two-down run-stopper, he has already gotten
farther than 31 other teams thought he could.
Stanley
Arnoux, NO – LB
A ruptured left Achilles’ tendon in the first practice of
rookie minicamp ended his first season before he started. Arnoux
was the steady tackling compliment in the middle overshadowed
by Aaron Curry’s playmaking at Wake Forest. Lacks the ideal
size for a MLB, but the Saints are thin at linebacker so see where
he fits in next year.
Henry
Melton, CHI – DE
Came to Texas as a super-sized running back and found a niche
on defense as a starter at end his senior year. A bit of a surprise
as a fourth-round pick, he is a project who is still a work in
progress. GM Jerry Angelo’s ability to find talent on defense
in the middle rounds alone makes him a name to remember.
Jason
Phillips, BAL – LB
A versatile and productive throwback who probably lacks the size
and athleticism to succeed at the next level. The Ravens have
a collection of players of various skills on the depth chart at
linebacker, so he isn’t even a lock to make the roster,
his biggest advantage being picked by the current regime. Probably
a career back-up and special teamer, but see how he performs in
the preseason and how the depth chart shakes out to get an idea
if there’s more potential here.
Corners
CB is an overlooked position because production is often unreliable,
except for the established top tacklers at the position (e.g.
Antoine Winfield) and many scoring systems can’t properly
capture their real value. The interception is the most unpredictable
statistic, making corners hard to project. Hence their draft position
varies greatly league-to-league leaving groupings like overvalued
or undervalued not as universally applicable as they are for other
positions. That being the case, I’ve just grouped all the
more intriguing ones here to take a look at.
Malcolm
Jenkins, NO – CB
A disappointing Combine took some of the luster off, but he remains
a stellar prospect. The situation at corner in New Orleans is
crowded, limiting his redraft upside, and his best position may
ultimately be free safety, but Jenkins will become a stud DB.
Vontae
Davis, MIA – CB
Text book high risk, high reward player. It would be nice if he
was a couple inches taller, but otherwise he is the complete package
physically and athletically. A big hitter who is outstanding in
run support and when used on the blitz, with a knack for separating
the runner or receiver from the ball. His aggression and gambling
can get him in trouble some time, but also is why he is a top
playmaker. Also an asset on special teams, look for him to block
some kicks and maybe return some too. He reminds me of a bigger,
better version of Dre Bly.
Consistency and dedication are the biggest question marks. If
he commits himself to the team and keeps his focus on football,
no DB in this class has a higher upside. Or he could end up squandering
his potential like his brother Vernon has thus far. Fellow rookie
Sean Smith has been impressed thus far and, unlike Davis, has
already signed, so he may have an edge for a starting job. Despite
his first round status, the risk and uncertainty in the Miami
secondary have Davis being overlooked. He is a tremendous value
late in dynasty rookie drafts, regardless of whether or not the
league differentiates between CB and S. I expect Davis to originally
be worked in as the nickel corner, where DC Paul Pasqualoni likes
to work in some blitzes. This will limit his tackle numbers a
bit in redrafts, but he should get the opportunity to make some
plays.
Sean Smith,
MIA – CB
Unusually tall for a corner, the second-round pick is another
great physical and athletic package for the Dolphins. The converted
WR is still learning the mechanics of the position, but I expect
him to beat Davis to the starting lineup, giving him good value
in redraft leagues. A fine prospect in his own right, Davis may
have more potential, but Smith may end up the better corner in
the long run.
Darius
Butler, NE – CB
Jack-of-all-trades is a nice size/speed package with above average
corner skills and experience in return game and as a receiver.
His versatility certainly helped land him on the Patriots. The
Patriots added a couple quality vets in Shawn Springs and Leigh
Bodden in the offseason, who should lock down the starting roles,
but have little quality depth. Butler should be able to win the
nickel spot with the fragile Springs making it likely he’ll
see more work as a rookie.
Alphonso
Smith, DEN – CB
Shutdown corner at Wake Forest, but you have to be concerned about
his size preventing him from being able to do the same at the
next level. Denver apparently had no such concerns, making him
the third corner selected in the draft with the fifth pick of
the second round. He now has one of the best fantasy situations
of any rookie corner, a future playing across from future Hall
of Famer Champ Bailey where he is sure to be tested often…assuming
he can win the starting job and isn’t limited to slot coverage
due to his size. In redrafts, he needs to beat out journeyman
Andre’ Goodman. If he does, nice immediate potential.
D.J. Moore,
CHI – CB
Regarded as one of the top collegiate corners (he was an AP second-team
All-American in 2008), Moore declared early but fell to the fourth
round on concerns about his bad combination of size (a smidge
under 5’9”) and timed speed (the wrong side of 4.5).
Regardless, he is playmaker who was a shutdown corner by compensating
with tremendous quickness, leaping, and timing to compensate for
his size. He is an ideal fit as a nickel corner and has great
potential as a returner. Not worth a pick in redraft or most dynasty
leagues, but is a great fit for the defense in Chicago and could
surprise down the road.
Sherrod
Martin, CAR – CB
The other “Trojans” (Troy University, nee Troy State)
has produced the quality of pro lately usually found at their
mascot’s namesake in Southern California. Martin looks to
be the next in that line as he moves from ball-hawking FS to nickel
corner, a very fantasy-friendly position on the Panthers. Excellent
sleeper in redraft leagues that require corners and nice long-term
potential in dynasty leagues.
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