Week 1
9/9/10
Players on PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) are out for at least
the first six weeks of the season. Players on the IR (Injured Reserve)
are out for the entire season.
Defensive Line
- A tumultuous offseason for Washington DT Albert
Haynesworth began when new HC Mike Shanahan brought in a
3-4 defense and Haynesworth immediately resisted the assumption
he’d play nose tackle. He then proceeded to skip the voluntary
spring OTAs, which Shanahan made clear his less than voluntary
expectations for veterans and a mandatory mini-camp in June,
before showing up and failing his conditioning test multiple
times at the start of training camp. Haynesworth became further
alienated when he felt the organization understated the severity
and didn’t legitimize his test failures as far as they were
due to knee problems and a diagnosis of rhabdomyolysis – a rapid
breakdown of muscle due to muscle injury and the resulting muscle
debris in the bloodstream being particularly dangerous to the
kidneys. In the context of athletes, it seems to be triggered
by excessive exercise in heat and can be easily treated by rest
and rehydration.
Of course, the counterpoint left unstated by Shanahan is that
Haynesworth didn’t maintain decent athletic condition in the
first place, hence his problems. After finally passing the test
and having to work his way up the ladder like everyone else,
insult to injury seemed to come when Shanahan left Haynesworth
for almost the entire preseason finale, a game that starters
typically see little to any action. While the extent of his
expected role continues to be debated and rumors still swirl
that he’ll be traded, expect Haynesworth to play in the season
opener and be an impact player. He should see time at both nose
tackle and five-technique end. However, be ready to jump ship
if the relationship continues to deteriorate and Haynesworth
isn’t traded. Shanahan has no problem exerting his authority
and no fear of job security. A potential outcome of seeing Haynesworth
deactivated for the rest of the season, a la Keyshawn Johnson
in 2003, isn’t out of the question.
- Former first-round pick Jamaal
Anderson has been replaced by Kroy
Biermann at starting LDE in Atlanta. A converted LB, Biermann
has good upside as a pass rusher, but also will rack up some
tackle numbers. Productive DT Jonathan
Babineaux is suspended for the first game of the season,
but should be back in the starting lineup in the second week
of the season.
- In Philadelphia, rookie Brandon
Graham continues to impress non-stop and will start at DE
opposite stalwart fantasy producer Trent
Cole. After that, it appears Juqua
Parker remains the top back-up at end, but don’t expect
him to meet or exceed the career-high 8.5 sacks he posted last
year. The disappointment has been Darryl
Tapp, who the Eagles traded Chris
Clemons and a 2010 fourth-round pick to Seattle for. Some
reports say Tapp was on the roster bubble and might not have
made it if they hadn’t paid what they did to acquire him. It
appears he may be behind rookie Daniel Te'o-Nesheim in the end
rotation, so I’d disregard both for now in redraft leagues.
Annual disappointment Victor
Abiamiri starts the season the PUP and rookie tweener Ricky
Sapp is on the IR, so both can be ignored this year. As
for the other side of that trade from a Seattle perspective,
I love Clemons as a DE sleeper this year. He is locked in to
a starting job for the first time in his career and has shown
he can get to the QB.
- It apparently takes a village to replace DE Julius
Peppers in Carolina. It appears Charles
Johnson will get the start at LDE, opposite the solid, but
unspectacular, Tyler
Brayton, who remains the starter at RDE. I like Johnson
to capitalize on the opportunity for a starting role, but he
might be moved inside in certain pass packages, which will inhibit
his sack total. The reason for the move is that Everette
Brown and rookie Greg Hardy have both impressed this preseason.
Brown, who the team traded their 2010 first-round pick to select
in the second round last year, looks improved after a limited
situational pass rush role last year and Hardy, who plummeted
to the fifth round after a disappointing final season at Mississippi
last year, has shown why he was considered a first-round talent
this time last year at Mississippi before a disappointing final
college season saw him plummet to the fifth round. Both should
see plenty of work in pass packages and could claim a larger
role before the end of the season. I really like Hardy for dynasty
leagues, has the size and talent to be an every-down end if
he stays healthy and works hard.
- I don’t get the optimism for St. Louis DE Chris
Long now that Leonard
Little is gone. Long has not displayed that he has elite
pass rushing skills in two full seasons and I don’t see him
becoming a player capable of double-digit sacks.
- After much speculation fueled by their off-season moves,
it appears the Raiders will remain a base 4-3 defense, but this
situation remains influx right up to opening day. The biggest
question mark is the personnel and use of the mix of tweeners
they have between DE and OLB. Most certain seems to be keeping
Kamerion
Wimbley at SLB. A converted collegiate DE, Wimbley was groomed
at OLB in Cleveland and the team looks comfortable leaving him
in that role. On the other side, it appeared for most of the
preseason that Trevor
Scott would retain the WLB role he moved to from DE by necessity
late last year due to injury. Despite his size (that is, too
tall for LB) and lack of experience defending the pass, the
team seemed happy with his conversion until the last week or
so. Scott has now been working in more at both end positions
and could replace Matt Shaughnessy as the starting RDE. If Scott
moves back to DE, it is reported Quentin
Groves, another tweener, has ascended the depth chart and
would start at WLB. I don’t expect that to last. Unless this
team is going to be rushing six people every pass, they need
someone capable of defending the pass, and the only LB they
have who is decent at it is Thomas
Howard. I’m shocked at how far out of favor he has fallen
and won’t be surprised to see him ending up with a larger role
than expected when all this is sorted out and they realize they
don’t have the personnel allocated properly.
At anchor end, rookie Lamarr
Houston has impressed enough out of the gate that he also
seems to have good job security for now, although he could be
replaced or bumped inside on passing downs by Scott or Shaugnessy,
if Scott takes over the right side. The interior seems more
stable. Richard
Seymour has moved back inside to DT, where he has more value
as a DT than he would have been as a DE for leagues that segregate
between line positions. Tommy Kelly slides over to the nose
tackle inside. Impressive young Harvard grad Desmond
Bryant, a former UDFA, and John
Henderson, who signed after being cut by Jacksonville, provide
depth for the interior. I’m still not convinced they don’t move
more toward a 3-4 front. It makes more sense with their personnel
in the front seven.
- Rocky
Bernard has had a strong preseason for the Giants. He once
posted 8.5 sacks and appears to have his interior rush mojo
back on. He could be a wavier wire gem in leagues that segregate
DTs.
- Look for Minnesota DE Ray
Edwards to post double-digit sacks this year. He was a quite
top-ten DE without them last year.
Linebacker
- The loss of WLB Thomas Davis for the season has disrupted
Carolina’s plans at linebacker. Stud MLB Jon Beason has
moved to WLB, clearing the way for Dan Connor to start at his
natural position. Connor looks to be just a two-down LB, with
Beason moving back to the middle in their nickel package. While
not ideal for Beason from a fantasy perspective, it shouldn’t
impact his fantasy value much. If Connor struggles, look for
versatile back-up Jamar Williams to get more work.
- With ILB Gerald Hayes on the PUP (back surgery) for Arizona
and Karlos Dansby having defected to Miami in free agency, second-round
pick Daryl Washington will see plenty of time on the field out
of the gate and be counted on to quickly meet his high expectations.
BTW, I expect huge statistical output from Dansby in Miami,
where he should see more pass rushing opportunities in addition
to continuing to pile up tackles.
- Sleeper alert: Jameel McClain has won the starting ILB job
next to Ray Lewis in Baltimore. You may remember the name from
2008, when as an UDFA rookie special teamer, he had a sack for
a safety on his first defensive snap ever late in the season
and would get in on a couple more sacks before the end of the
year. He failed to carry that momentum in to last season, remaining
primarily a special teams player, but broke through this preseason,
beating out incumbent Dannell Ellerbe and injury-plagued 2008
fourth-round pick Tavares Gooden, who was expected to ease the
loss of Bart Scott after that season by becoming Lewis’
new partner. McClain probably won’t rack up tackle numbers,
but has some appeal in leagues rewarding big plays. However,
his hold on the job is tenuous and it could remain a committee
situation if he doesn’t establish himself early in the
season.
- An interesting situation is building with Cincinnati linebackers.
DE Michael Johnson had some brilliant flashes working with hand
off the ground and rushing as an OLB in the preseason. With
HC Marvin Lewis apparently satisfied with Antwan Odom and Robert
Geathers remaining the starters at end, Johnson appeared limited
to a situational pass rushing role there, but now he looks set
to be part of the LB rotation in certain packages, as well.
This initially appears to come at the expense of SLB Rey Maualuga.
The team would probably prefer for Maulaluga to have moved Dhani
Jones out at MLB by now, and he probably could on strictly a
talent basis, but they still appear to want to Jones there quarterbacking
the defense and for his leadership. However, it could be Jones
bumped out of certain packages with Maualuga staying in the
middle and Johnson on the outside. The key things to take away
from this: (1) Johnson’s value looks more promising for
this year, especially in leagues where he is listed as a DE
instead of a LB (since he’ll put up good DE numbers, but
not good LB numbers), (2) one or both of Maualuga and Jones
take a hit this year, watch the situation closely, but Maualuga
has the huge upside in dynasty leagues, and (3) Odom and Geathers
seem to have more short-term job security.
- The Jets will be without OLB Calvin Pace to start the season
for the second straight year. Pace broke his right foot in a
preseason game on 8/27. After originally being projected to
be out the standard 4-6 weeks, HC Rex Ryan said he is ahead
of schedule. Jason Taylor will see more work until Pace returns.
- Rookie Sean Weatherspoon will start at the less fantasy-friendly
SLB job in Atlanta opposite Mike Peterson, who remains the WLB.
- After a fine preseason that saw him move from UDFA in 2009
to starting WLB in New Orleans, Jonathan Castillas is now out
for the season with a Lisfranc fracture. Scott Shanle moves
back to WLB, regaining the value it appeared he would lose by
moving to SLB to make way for Castillas. Another former UDFA,
Jo-Lonn Dunbar should join the starting lineup, but he will
be on a short leash as the team added journeyman Danny Clark
for depth and could also look to give Stanley Arnoux, a fourth-round
pick last year who missed the season due to injury, an opportunity.
- The linebacker situation remains a mess in Kansas City. It
appears both starting ILBs from last year, Corey Mays and Demorrio
Williams, have been replaced by Jovan Belcher and Derrick Johnson.
While I’d avoid this situation as much as possible, I
like Johnson’s chances to resurrect his career if he’s
out of HC Todd Haley’s doghouse. He has the most talent
and could easily bounce back if he plays consistently. Look
for Williams to get more opportunities outside, where he was
has been mistakenly ignored in the new regime, to take advantage
of his pass rushing skills. On the outside, Tamba Hali is the
only lock and their best pass rusher. Aging veteran Mike Vrabel
is being pushed by Andy Studebaker for a starting role and,
as mentioned, could lose time to Williams in passing situations.
- After St. Louis added former Dallas LB Bobby Carpenter, he
was expected to be the starting WLB. A disappointing preseason
resulted in Carpenter being cut and Larry Grant winning the
job.
- After exploding on the scene filling in for MLB Lofa Tatupu
last year, the future for David Hawthorne seemed unclear with
Tatupu back. Both players are too good to keep off the field,
but the situation solved itself when WLB Leroy Hill had off-field
issues in the offseason. The team wasted no time elevating Hawthorne
to the starting WLB role, which he’s unlikely to relinquish
even once Hill returns from a two-game suspension to start the
season. After a disappointing fantasy season as a rookie for
SLB Aaron Curry, look for his numbers to improve under new HC
Pete Carroll and his creative defensive mind.
- Two vets coming off significant injuries have looked good
back in the middle this preseason and should be competing for
top-25 numbers: Stewart Bradley in Philadelphia and E.J. Henderson
in Minnesota.
- I really like Ernie Sims as the new WLB in Philadelphia.
It is a great fit for both the player and the team. He has fallen
off the radar of most, but if he can stay healthy, which was
really the only problem in Detroit, he will be a tackle-machine.
- Most seem to be ignoring Jonathan Goff as the MLB for the
Giants. He fell off the grid when veteran Keith Bulluck showed
up in the preseason and got some work there, but Goff has locked
the job up. Bulluck seems to think he will be starting this
weekend, which could mean Michael Boley is moved to SLB, where
he has experience and Bulluck doesn’t, and Clint Sintim
is relegated to a situational pass rush role. I’d be extremely
cautious with Bulluck and I still like Boley best of the group,
a slight edge over Goff due to more playmaking ability, as long
as he remains at WLB.
Defensive Back
- Veteran FS Darren Sharper will begin the year on the PUP
in New Orleans, so former first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins will
move to centerfield to start the season. Lacking elite speed,
many thought Jenkins would be a better fit at safety than cornerback
coming out of college. With a thin linebacker corps, he could
be a sleeper who could put up some tackle numbers and should
be a ball hawk with teams needing to go to the air early and
often against a high-powered Saints’ offense.
- Injury-prone SS Bob Sanders is as healthy as he gets and
the 2007 DPOY for Indianapolis could be a tremendous value this
year as he has been falling down draft boards due to risk. Melvin
Bullitt remains a quality replacement if (when) Sanders gets
hurt again.
- Former Notre Dame star Tom Zbikowski finally gets chance
in Baltimore at FS as Ed Reed starts the year on the PUP. You
can’t keep a playmaker like Reed out of the lineup when
he’s healthy, so Tommy Z’s value could be short-lived,
but knowing he is seen as the heir bumps up his dynasty standing.
When Reed comes back, remember he is a complete boom-or-bust
performer week-to-week at this stage in his career. If your
league is tackle-heavy and doesn’t score big plays well,
Reed isn’t as appealing. The Ravens are also plagued by
injuries at corner, where Dominique Foxworth landed on the IR
and likely starters Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb both
struggle to return from injuries last year. To help their thin
depth, the team acquired Josh Wilson from Seattle. Wilson has
a huge fantasy season two years ago, but was buried back down
last year. He could be a significant fantasy contributor at
corner this year.
- As expected, veteran Al Harris won’t start the season
in Green Bay after a gruesome knee injury late last year. He’ll
begin the season on the PUP and it likely ends his career if
he has any setbacks. The beneficiary is Tramon Williams, who
has posted some great numbers as the third corner the last two
years and has shown big-play ability. He is also currently their
primary punt returner, giving him a significant boost in leagues
that count return stats.
- Patrick Chung appears installed as the SS in New England
and has potential for Rodney Harrison numbers if he meets his
upside.
- Chicago looked to address lingering issues at safety when
they corrected a mistake from a few years ago – trading
away Chris Harris. The team re-acquired Harris from Carolina
in the offseason and added a player capable of creating the
turnovers HC Lovie Smith bases his defense on. Harris is more
comfortable at SS, but has been lining up at FS with Danieal
Manning at SS, which is odd as Manning is better in coverage.
The team also drafted Major Wright and he impressed before breaking
a finger during the preseason. Wright is healthy now and the
secondary could be shaken up again. I expect Harris to eventually
take over FS, moving Harris to SS and bumping Manning to the
nickel. Until then, Manning is a sleeper who could put up his
best tackle numbers if he can stay as the starter at either
position for a whole season.
- Watch the position battle at safety in San Francisco. Incumbent
Michael Lewis has been an extremely consistent producer since
rejuvenating his career when he came over from Philadelphia
three years ago. A free agent after this season, the writing
was on the wall for Lewis’ future when the team drafted
Taylor Mays in the second round, but Mays is proved ready for
prime time now. Also, Reggie Smith, a converted college corner,
has shown the chops for either safety position and deserves
more playing time. FS Dashon Goldson, who had a break out season
last year, seems to have the most job security.
Position Eligibility
The complex and variable defensive schemes employed in the NFL
have made identifying the position of a player ambiguous, at best,
on some teams. If your league bases position eligibility solely
as listed on your stat provider’s website, it is a good
time to take stock of your roster and the waiver wire for players
who may be recognized at a more beneficial position based on your
scoring system. For example, in leagues where sacks are undervalued,
a player who is listed as a DE, but will be more often line up
as a LB, is likely to have more tackles and be more valuable,
even though he may rush the passer less.
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