Week 1
9/8/11
Early Game
Alert: Thursday: NO @ GB 8:20pm EST
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Defensive Line
- After trying to get moved off the New York Giants, a disgruntled
DE Osi Umenyiora eliminated the market for him when knee problems
flared up again in the preseason. He had the right knee cleaned
in mid-August and should miss at least the first couple games
of the season. The big winner is DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who moves
in the starting lineup and has breakout season written all over
him. Tweener Mathias Kiwanuka looks to once again be employed
at SLB in the base defense and should put his hand on the ground
in the nickel. This likely leaves Kiwi classified as a LB in
most leagues, killing much of his fantasy value. Rookie DT Marvin
Austin will have to wait a year to get after all the teams that
passed him in the first round. He is on the IR after suffering
a torn left pec in the preseason.
- Atlanta finally addressed adding another pass rush threat
from the edge opposite RDE John Abraham in free agency. DE Ray
Edwards brings double-digit sack potential, but carries a bit
of concern after quietly having what has only been described
as "minor" knee surgery during the lockout and missing
the start of the preseason.
- The StarCaps saga that has lingered for two years finally
resulted in a two-game suspension for New Orleans DE Will Smith
for violating the league’s policy on banned substances.
He’ll miss the first two games of the season. It appears
journeyman Jeff Charleston will replace Smith as the starter
the first two games and the LDE job has been won by Turk McBride
after Alex Brown was released. First-round pick Cameron Jordan
will come off the bench after being a bit of a disappointment
in the preseason. He isn’t a speed edge rusher in the
long run, so he has very limited redraft value and an increasingly
questionable dynasty outlook. The road to redemption for rookie
DE Greg Romeus, considered a first-round talent before injuries
derailed his collegiate career, begins on the PUP.
- Minnesota DE Brian Robison earns a productive opportunity
opposite RDE Jared Allen after the departure of Ray Edwards
to Atlanta. The 2007 fourth-round pick out of Texas has flashed
solid pass rush ability in limited opportunities as the third
and fourth DE the last four years. One of my favorite sleepers
on the DLine this season, a double-digit sack performance should
not be a surprise. His job security appears more solidified
with the move to expose Everson Griffen, last year's fourth-round
pick, to some work at OLB, making him a more versatile back-up.
Another StarCaps victim is DT Kevin Williams, who is also suspended
two games.
- After their previous teams converted to 3-4 defenses, DE
Andre Carter and DT Albert Haynesworth struggled to fit in and
hence were looking for work elsewhere this year. So their addition
to New England, with HC Bill Belichick a long-time proponent
of the 3-4 defense, seemed an odd match. However, as Belchick's
frequently-used nickel package features four linemen with their
hand on the ground, the team has tweaked that further in the
preseason to work extensively on a 4-3 base. Belichick has now
collected the personnel to alternate 4-3 and 3-4 looks on a
weekly, if not down-to-down, basis. His preference for the 3-4
has always been it offers the most flexibility, so as opposed
to looking at this as a switch to a 4-3, it is just Belichick
evolving and adapting. It further explains why he focused on
veteran additions to his front seven this offseason, who can
handle the demands of knowing roles in even more schemes, whereas
he typically builds his line in the draft. Andre Carter has
looked great in the preseason and, as long as your league now
again classifies him as a DE, has some fantasy upside, but seemed
to be coming out in the nickel packages, which limits his sack
potential. Haynesworth is also looking valuable if he is back
to being classified as a DT and your league segregates the positions
in your lineup. The fantasy outlook for some of their DLinemen
isn't as promising. A forgotten Mark Anderson, who has done
little since tallying 12 sacks as a rookie in 2006, has also
had a great preseason, but he presumably moves to being classified
as an LB in most systems, which hurts his fantasy value. Same
story for Jermaine Cunningham. Shaun Ellis comes over from the
Jets, but his snaps should be limited as his career winds down,
primarily as a space-eater as a five-technique DE in base 3-4
looks. The value of stalwart Vince Wilfork should remain flat,
as he'll remain on the nose regardless of scheme. Mike Wright
had emerged as a pass rushing force last year until a concussion
ended his season early. He seems to be lost a bit in the shuffle
so far this year. The team also brought back Gerard Warren,
whose role at 3-4 end diminishes with the addition of Ellis,
but who also has experience as a 4-3 DT.
- Denver gets Elvis Dumervil back after missing all of last
season with a torn pec and he is a great bet to return to double-digit
sacks at RDE as HC John Fox brings the 4-3 back to Denver. On
the other side, Robert Ayers should also benefit. The former
first-round pick may have been miscast as OLB in 3-4 and could
have a breakout season.
- A knee injury impeded the preseason of Cincinnati DE Carlos
Dunlap, but I’m still shocked he remains DE3 despite having
the most talent. He posted 9.5 sacks in the second half of the
season alone and is a top pick for sack-heavy leagues, but tackles
will be sparse if he remains a pass rush specialist. The same
inconsistency that caused DE Michael Johnson and his first-round
talent to fall in the 2009 draft has prevented him from reaching
potential at next level. However, he’ll start at RDE and
gets another chance to prove he isn’t a bust.
- Carolina DE Greg Hardy had most of his preseason erased after
a motorcycle accident, but is still their best option opposite
RDE Charles Johnson, who was rewarded with a massive contract
after a huge season last year. Hardy was one of the best collegiate
ends in the country after 2009 and widely considered a first-round
talent, but broke his foot at the end of the season and returned
to Mississippi in 2010 for his senior season. He struggled to
return to form and questions about his work ethic arose, resulting
in him plummeting to the sixth round in the draft. He flashed
his playmaking ability last year with three sacks and two forced
fumbles, as well as a blocked punt for a safety, in a reserve
role. HC Ron Rivera took on a similar reclamation project in
George Selvie, a 2010 seventh-round pick who was just released
by St. Louis in their final cuts. Selvie’s career went
in reverse after peaking as a consensus All-American as a redshirt
sophomore in 2007. He is a sleeper to watch in dynasty leagues
on a Carolina DLine lacking depth after they gave up on Everette
Brown, letting him go in their final cuts.
- Medical history (benign brain tumor) and not playing last
year makes St. Louis rookie first-round pick DE Robert Quinn
a risk, but the upside is huge and HC Steve Spagnuolo knows
how to get the most out of his DLinemen. Quinn will start off
as pass rush specialist with James Hall, who had a career year
at 33 last year, retaining his starting RDE role opposite Chris
Long.
- After losing Jason Babin and cutting Jacob Ford, Tennessee
has big expectations for DE Derrick Morgan, last year’s
first-round pick. However, he’ll miss the start of the
season after needing a procedure in late August on his surgically-repaired
left knee that ended his rookie season early when he tore the
ACL in it. William Hayes regains a starting role while Morgan
is out opposite the versatile Jason Jones, who goes from swing
role all over the front four to starting at DE.
- There is some sleeper value to mine on the edges in Cleveland
and my top pick is rookie DE Jabaal Sheard. He barely made it
out of the first round and in a draft with lesser talent at
end than the stacked class that came out this year, he would
have. After leading the team in sacks last year, former UDFA
Marcus Benard squandered his chance with the new regime early
after showing up to camp overweight, but could surprise. Opposite
Sheard at LDE is Jayme Mitchell, who flashed some pass rush
ability with limited opportunities in a stacked line with Minnesota
previously.
- After going back-to-back at DT with Gerald McCoy and Brian
Price in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft, Tampa Bay finished
rebuilding their DLine by doing the same with Adrian Clayborn
and Da’Quan Bowers this year. I'm conservative the ceiling
of Clayborn, especially as a pass rusher, but he's drawn rave
reviews from team in preseason. Despite injury concerns with
knee, Bowers has been very reliable through preseason, but unable
to pass Michael Bennett to start at LDE opposite Clayborn. Bennett
was an UDFA signed by Seattle out of Texas A&M in 2009 and
they converted him to pass-rushing UT, but he failed to stick
there and was signed by the Bucs halfway through last season,
where he got notice as McCoy’s back-up. He was bounced
back outside in the preseason and locked down the starting role.
McCoy had a solid, but unspectacular, debut, which ended with
a torn biceps late in the season. He has struggled in the shadow
of DET DT Ndamukong Suh, who was selected one pick before him
at second overall last year, but McCoy should make a name for
himself this season. Price is still recovering from tearing
both hamstrings off the bone last year, erasing his rookie season,
while Roy Miller and Frank Okam will work next to McCoy in his
absence.
- Two ACL tears in the last two years make Jacksonville DE
Aaron Kampman a risky pick. DE Jeremy Mincey, who has a starting
role locked up to start the year for the first time after a
strong preseason, and Matt Roth, who gets an opportunity to
return to his collegiate DE position after becoming a journeyman
as a 3-4 OLB, are both intriguing sleepers whose value jumps
if Kampman goes down again.
- Pittsburgh first-round pick DE Cameron Heyward is a perfect
fit for the Steelers, a pick myself and others easily nailed
in their mock draft. He should see opportunity sooner than later
behind aging and injury prone Aaron Smith.
Linebacker
- After Carolina WLB Thomas Davis went down with a torn ACL
for the second straight season last year, Jon Beason moved to
WLB. With Davis returning, Beason was back in the middle and
his fantasy value spiked back up. However Beason got three screws
in his left heel to stabilize an Achilles’ tendon injury
just a couple weeks ago. HC Ron Rivera says he expects Beason
to play in the opener, which seems a bit surprising. If Beason
can’t go, Dan Connor will return to the middle and once
again could be a solid contributor. Davis remains a high risk/high
reward proposition. While I think James Anderson had a career
year in production last season, he should still be good fantasy
producer, especially for a SLB, and is the safest pick in their
LB corps.
- One of the surprise free agent signing of the abbreviated
offseason was Jacksonville adding MLB Paul Posluszny. Injury
prone through his young career, Poz has only played all 16 games
once in four NFL seasons.
- After losing Poz in free agency, Buffalo scrambled to improve
their LB corps and brought on Nick Barnett, who was unceremoniously
discarded by Green Bay after Desmond Bishop stepped up when
Barnett went down last year. I believe Barnett still has a lot
of good football in him and a lot to prove. He has been on the
field in all packages for Buffalo in the preseason and should
have an excellent bounce back in production. Next to him the
team has underrated reliable veteran Andra Davis in their base
defense. He’ll be pushed by rookie Kelvin Sheppard and
Kirk Morrison, whose late addition is ironic, as the addition
of Poz made him expendable in Jacksonville. On the edges of
their 3-4, Shawne Merriman showed flashes of being “Lights
Out” again in the preseason with some sacks, but his health
is about as risky a bet as there is in football.
- Coming off season-ending pectoral injuries in each of his
arms the last two years, Cleveland MLB D’Qwell Jackson
is another text book high risk, high reward pick in the middle
of their new 4-3. With a couple great space-eaters on the interior
line in Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Phil Taylor, new DC Dick Jauron
is following a similar blue print he used in Chicago that was
extremely fantasy-friendly for the man in the middle when he
put Ted Washington and Keith Traylor in front of Brian Urlacher.
Jackson can finish the season as a top five LB, if he stays
healthy.
- Denver WLB D.J. Williams will miss a few games after dislocating
his left elbow late in the preseason. The versatile Williams
has been productive in a variety of positions and schemes, but
none more than on the weakside in a 4-3, which he is set to
return to under new HC John Fox. This type of injury shouldn’t
have a lingering impact, so expect great performance from Williams
once he returns and look to trade for him from desperate owners
or, in shallow leagues, grab him off the waiver wire before
he returns. Wesley Woodyard will fill in for Williams while
he’s out. While everyone assumed third-round pick Nate
Irving would walk in and take the MLB, Joe Mays has won it,
and don’t assume it is temporary. While not the athlete
Irving is, Mays has is fundamentally solid and has the faith
of the coaching staff in running the defense on the field. Irving
is still a nice dynasty prospect, but Mays should quietly produce
some nice tackle numbers this year and hang on to the job. On
the strongside, rookie Von Miller has impressed in the preseason
and should have good production, especially in sack-heavy leagues,
as he has a role in every package.
- The 3-4 new DC Wade Phillips brings to Houston may finally
take Houston to the next level, but it isn’t promising
for fantasy purposes for a couple of their IDP stars. ILB Demeco
Ryans already carries a lot of risk coming off a ruptured Achilles'
tendon last year and elbow injury in preseason, but his tackle
numbers, the strength of his fantasy production, looked to take
a hit even if he was completely healthy in the new defense.
The crushing blow was to dynasty owners of Mario Williams, who
saw his position eligibility change from DE to LB in most leagues,
limiting his fantasy value even if he takes to the new role
and remains a double-digit sack performer. The one player I
see it benefitting is Brian Cushing, who moves inside. Especially
with my concerns about Ryans, I see Cushing having a huge season
in Mo (strongside) role, where Bradie James, in the same position
under Phillips in Dallas, consistently put up 100-tackles season
and in 2008 led interior LBs with 8 sacks.
- Back at his natural position of MLB in Cincinnati, Rey Maualuga
has had a great preseason and looks poised for breakout season.
After struggling with plantar fasciitis last year, WLB Keith
Rivers had wrist surgery in the offseason and will begin the
season on the PUP, making him unavailable until after their
Week 7 bye. Starting with getting his jaw broken on a block
by Hines Ward his rookie season in 2008, the former ninth overall
pick has been an injury-prone bust. It might be time to give
up on him in dynasty leagues. Raider reject Thomas Howard gets
an excellent opportunity to be a starter again. Don’t
be surprised if he hangs on to the job all season. Opposite
him SLB Manny Lawson, who has improved greatly in pass coverage,
gets his first opportunity to work in a 4-3 defense. Expect
DC Mike Zimmer to find creative ways to use him to utilize rookie
speed demon Dontay Moch as a pass rusher, but he won’t
have much fantasy value as a role player.
- Tampa Bay rookie Mason Foster replaces Barrett Ruud, who
now roams the middle for Tennessee, but will start as just a
two-down MLB. SLB Quincy Black replaces Foster in the nickel
package, bolstering his fantasy value. WLB Geno Hayes remains
an overlooked source of consistently solid fantasy production.
- Despite struggles in the preseason, rookie Casey Matthews
appears to have held on to the starting MLB job. However, he
should have short leash and SLB Jamar Chaney could step back
in to the role he thrived in last year after Stewart Bradley
was injured. The media and fans were surprised to see Chaney
not installed back in the middle, but new DC Juan Castillo apparently
values the SAM spot higher, with the variety of responsibilities
on it in his defense, and wants his best ‘backer there.
- New York Giants DC Perry Fewell has his work cut out for
him this year as preseason injuries have devastated their defense.
The latest was losing MLB Jonathan Goff to a torn ACL in practice
Monday. Goff was a fantasy bust last year, but had made great
strides this preseason, especially as the leader and coordinator
of the defense, and was locked in as the starter. The left themselves
with nothing but rookies behind him – sixth-rounder Greg
Jones and UDFA Mark Herzlich. Jones, a collegiate tackle-machine
who fell because of concerns about his size and athleticism,
is next on the depth chart and will get a shot in the opener
because it is too late to bring in someone off the street, but
the team is certain to bring a veteran in ASAP. They have already
looked at Kawika Mitchell and I would think Dhani Jones, who
still had gas in the tank last year, could also get a call.
- Pittsburgh OLB James Harrison has struggled to recover from
back surgery in the spring and getting back in football shape,
but he should be ready for the start of the season. However,
back injuries are tricky and Harrison could be wildly inconsistent
in his performance week-to-week. Behind him, Jason Worilds is
progressing well in his sophomore season and should see a greater
workload this year. On the inside, James Farrior can’t
continue to defy age much longer. At 36, his production could
fall off a cliff at any time. Behind him another second-year
player, Stevenson Sylvester is also being groomed. No one is
better at cranking out productive linebackers like a factory
and seamlessly working them in than the Steelers. In a few years
rookie Chris Carter should be another. At the other two linebacker
spots, ILB Lawrence Timmons and OLB LaMarr Woodley are in the
peak of their careers. Timmons has become a top five linebacker
and I expect Woodley to bounce back to double-digit sacks.
- An aging Indianapolis MLB Gary Brackett has struggled to
stay healthy the last few years and his future replacement,
Pat Angerer, will bide his time on the fantasy-unfriendly strongside.
An appendectomy in the preseason contributed to preventing journeyman
Ernie Sims from overtaking Kavell Conner for the WLB job, but
he could be a factor if the unproven Conner struggles or is
injured.
Defensive Back
- While Washington SS LaRon Landry was removed from the PUP
so he can start the season, his short-term prognosis is uncertain
and his future is a bit scary. Landry has struggled to overcome
a left Achilles’ tendon injury that, along with a dislocated
left wrist, ended his season early last year. As frequently
occurs with players trying to come back too early from a serious
leg injury, he created a new problem when he strained his right
hamstring during the preseason. Landry says he doesn’t
expect to play in the season opener. He chose rest and rehab
over surgery, but the Achilles isn’t responding and/or
was aggravated by returning to early, but at this point it seems
his whole season is in jeopardy and his fantasy owners should
have a quality back-up or alternative plan. For their part,
the Redskins will go with valuable reserve Reed Doughty in Landry’s
place. Doughty has been a reliable fantasy producer, when given
a chance, so he is nice filler with huge sleeper potential.
The team has little after that at safety after placing Kareem
Moore on the PUP and letting go of former starter Chris Horton
in their final cuts. I’m surprised Horton hasn’t
immediately caught on anywhere else. At FS, the team added free
agent Oshiomogho Atogwe, who is backed up by versatile rookie
DeJon Gomes. I like Atogwe to bounce back big this season behind
a defense that should spend a lot of time on the field. While
you can’t expect CB DeAngelo Hall to match his career
production last season (especially without CHI QB Jay Cutler
on the schedule), he is still an excellent fantasy performer.
- With the release of veteran safeties Brandon Meriweather
and James Sanders, two little-know players get a huge opportunity
in the New England defensive backfield. An UDFA last year, Sergio
Brown goes from practice squad player to first-team rotation,
along with Josh Barrett, who has spent most of the last two
years overcoming a shoulder injury. Both will share time at
safety next to standout Patrick Chung, who should be on the
field in the position for most snaps.
- While Meriweather was a surprise cut by the Patriots, he
fell in to a great opportunity in Chicago, where his production
could increase with less of a rotation. While safeties in the
Bears' base Cover-2 should be largely interchangeable, in theory,
they use a lot of single high in Cover-1 and Cover-3 looks that
require a true centerfielder. Chris Harris was primarily relied
upon for that role last year, but now the team has a better
fit as a free safety in Meriweather. This allows Harris to move
in the box more often as a SS, where his playmaking ability
as a hitter and with a nose for the ball can be capitalized
on, and his tackle numbers should increase. The value of sophomore
S Major Wright takes the hit here, although he will be the primary
back-up for both.
- While it is expected hard-hitting Bernard Pollard held off
Tom Zbikowski to be the starting SS in Baltimore, Pollard has
left some skepticism in recent comments and Tommy Z is still
listed first on the depth chart. I expect Pollard to be in the
base scheme and see the majority of reps, losing snaps to Zbikowski
in the nickel. I wouldn’t undervalue him too quickly,
Pollard finds a way to produce and the team hasn’t showed
a lot of confidence in Zbikowski previously. Rookie CB Jimmy
Smith has lived up to the hype in the preseason and his fantasy
value should be helped by being tested by opposing QBs. He is
going to be a good one.
- Dallas SS Abram Elam is an underrated playmaker who should
thrive in reuniting with DC Rob Ryan.
- A season-ending torn ACL for Arizona CB Greg Toler opened
the door for first-round pick Patrick Peterson to start. Peterson
may be the most dynamic corner prospect since Charles Woodson
and should be a tremendous fantasy asset immediately as he’ll
be tested as a rookie by opposing QBs. Peterson has more value
in leagues that count return stats as he’s also the team’s
top punt returner. SS Adrian Wilson is a huge injury risk as
he attempts to play through partially torn right biceps. Rashad
Johnson is his back-up.
- San Diego SS Bob Sanders remains huge injury risk, but should
pay dividends until his next season-ending injury.
- New Orleans FS Malcolm Jenkins emerged as a playmaker last
year and could be in line for a career year in production behind
what should be a vastly improved defense for the Saints.
- Coming off torn ACL, Green Bay SS Morgan Burnett appears
to have regained starting job, but should be eased back with
Charlie Peprah still seeing significant work. Burnett has potential
to be a big playmaker if he’s all the way back.
- Philadelphia made the most shocking move of the abbreviated
free agency period when they swooped in for CB Nnamdi Asomugha.
They already had acquired CB Dominick Rodgers-Cromartie from
Arizona in a trade for QB Kevin Kolb and still kept CB Asante
Samuel to give them a stellar top three corners. Asomugha should
no longer be a fantasy pariah as QBs will have to pick their
poison in the passing game and he should have more opportunities
for big plays in an active defense. Fundamentally-sound SS Kurt
Coleman, a seventh-round pick last year, has held off rookie
Jaiquawn Jarrett, the better athlete with more potential, for
a starting spot.
- Preseason injuries decimated the New York Giants secondary,
as well. CB Terrell Thomas, a top fantasy producer, was lost
for the year with a torn ACL. First-round pick CB Prince Amukamara
is expected to be out until at least Week 5 with a broken foot.
Aaron Ross joins Corey Webster in the starting CB tandem. Journeyman
Brian Williams was added for depth. Expect third safety Deon
Grant to continue to have a significant role as DC Perry Fewell
loves his “Big Base” package with three safeties
and will have his hand forced to get his best players on the
field with all the injuries. FS Antrel Rolle could also be forced
in to action as a nickel corner, depending on the performance
of Williams, creating more opportunities for Grant as SS Kenny
Phillips would kick back to FS.
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