Fantasy Impact: BUF
7/24/06
Team: Buffalo Bills
Previous Head Coach: Mike Mularkey
(2004-2005)
New Head Coach: Dick Jauron (DET DC:
2004-2005; CHI HC: 1999-2003; JAX DC: 1995-1998)
New Offensive Coordinator: Steve Fairchild
(STL OC: 2003-2005; BUF RB Coach: 2001-2002)
Dick Jauron takes over as head coach in Buffalo following the
surprise resignation of Mike Mularkey shortly after the season.
Upon entering the league as a defensive backs coach with the Buffalo
Bills in 1985, Jauron joined the Green Bay Packers staff the following
year where he spent the next nine seasons. In 1995 Jauron was
hired by Tom Coughlin to work as his defensive coordinator with
the Jacksonville Jaguars. In just their second season, the expansion
Jaguars had already assembled a team that was one win away from
playing in the Super Bowl. After enjoying sustained success with
the franchise the next two years, Jauron was offered his first
head coaching job and took over the Chicago Bears in 1999.
Jauron's first two seasons in Chicago weren't impressive. The
team used their first round pick in 1999 on quarterback Cade McNown
and they went through three different starting quarterbacks that
year. The backfield compiled just 1063 yards and 3 touchdowns
as a unit as the Bears posted a 6-10 season. The following year
the Bears went 5-11 with no signs of improvement from the offense.
In 2001, the Bears went 13-3 relying on the contributions of
rookie running back Anthony Thomas and a defense that ranked number
one in the league in points allowed. They won the NFC Central
and had a first week bye in the playoffs. Although they got to
host the Philadelphia Eagles, they lost to hometown favorite Donovan
McNabb by a score of 33-19. It was the most success Jauron would
enjoy in Chicago as they fell back to earth with a 4-12 effort
the following year, and then 7-9 in Jauron's final season with
the club.
Before landing the Buffalo Bills job, Jauron spent the previous
two seasons working in Detroit under Steve Mariucci as defensive
coordinator. The Lions however, proved no better than the team
Jauron had left in Chicago as they went a combined 11-21 during
that two year span. The lone bright spot was the significant improvement
the Lions made on the defensive side of the ball under Jauron's
guidance in 2004 before a lackluster performance in 2005.
After signing with the Bills, Jauron filled out his staff by
hiring Steve Fairchild to be his offensive coordinator. Fairchild
has spent the past three years working under Mike Martz in St.
Louis with the same title. Prior to joining the Rams staff, he
spent the 2001-2002 seasons in Buffalo as the running backs coach
and produced a Pro-Bowl season from Travis Henry in 2002.
Jauron's Impact On The Offense:
Quarterbacks: Kelly Holcomb;
J.P. Losman; Craig Nall
J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb will battle in the preseason for
the right to start on opening day. After Losman's poor showing
last season upon assuming that role, consider eight-year vet,
Kelly Holcomb the favorite here. Losman completed just 49.8% of
his passes last season on 228 attempts. If he doesn't show improvement
with his accuracy during the preseason, he'll have no chance at
winning the starting quarterback position.
Holcomb has never gone through an entire season as a starter,
but he has more experience in that role than the younger Losman.
He also has a career completion percentage of 64.6% and his knowledge
of the position should go a long way towards being named the starter
come opening day.
Regardless of which quarterback actually starts for the Bills
this season, it's hard to imagine much fantasy value here. Jauron
is a defensive-minded coach and will likely rely on a conservative
gameplan like he had in Chicago. Although Mike Martz's understudy
for the past three seasons in St. Louis will be running the offense,
don't expect to see anything resembling the Rams air attack.
The Bills will take their chances downfield during games, but
unless Lee Evans emerges as a star this season, don't expect many
250-yard passing days from the Bills quarterbacks. If Holcomb
can stay healthy and lock up the starting role throughout the
year, he may be a solid back-up in fantasy leagues, but you should
be able to get something better to fill that spot on your team.
Running Backs: Willis McGahee;
Anthony Thomas; Shaud Williams; Lionel Gates
McGahee may have been a disappointment last season, but he did
manage to rush for over 1200 yards on 300-plus carries for the
first time in his career. With the conservative approach Jauron
brings to the offense, you can expect McGahee to carry the ball
nearly 350 times this season. At 4.0 yards a carry, that would
be 1400 yards rushing. Expect McGahee to finish with somewhere
between 1300-1550 this season. After rushing for 13 touchdowns
as a rookie, McGahee's total dropped to 5 last year. Given some
stability at the quarterback position, he should be able to find
the endzone 8-10 times on the ground in 2006.
If McGahee were to go down with an injury, his backup would likely
be a valuable fantasy pick up. Pay attention to whether Anthony
Thomas or Shaud Williams earns the number two spot on the depth
chart. An injury to McGahee would likely mean 20 carries a game
for whichever back assumes the starting role.
Wide Receivers: Lee Evans;
Peerless Price; Josh Reed; Roscoe Parrish; Andre' Davis
Lee Evans takes over the lead role at wide receiver in 2006 following
an offseason that saw the departure of Eric Moulds to the Houston
Texans for a fifth round pick. With just two years in the league,
Evans has compiled an impressive 97 receptions for 1586 yards
and 16 touchdowns. As the new lead receiver in Buffalo, Evans
will now have the opportunity to contribute even more to the offense.
He won't have the luxury of playing opposite Moulds this year,
but Peerless Price returned to Buffalo via free agency and should
provide enough to the offense to keep Evans from drawing too many
double coverages.
The talent surrounding him and the system he plays in may limit
Evans' overall production, but by season's end he should have
no less than 75 receptions for roughly a 1000 yards. I wouldn't
expect his touchdown totals to jump too high. The new system he's
playing in could limit his scoring opportunities. That said, he
should have another 7-9 scores this season.
Peerless Price might be valuable as a #4 receiver to fantasy
teams, but he isn't someone you want to be relying on. He's likely
to finish the year with 625-725 yards receiving, and 3-4 touchdowns.
If he produces more than that I want to know what Buffalo puts
in their water.
Tight Ends: Robert Royal; Kevin
Everett; Ryan Neufeld
The Bills tight end situation isn't all that impressive in terms
of fantasy value. Whoever starts, he'll likely remain in your
leagues free agent list the entire season.
|