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2006 Coaching Changes
Fantasy Impact: BUF
7/24/06

Team: Buffalo Bills
Previous Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (2004-2005)
New Head Coach: Dick Jauron (DET DC: 2004-2005; CHI HC: 1999-2003; JAX DC: 1995-1998)
New Offensive Coordinator: Steve Fairchild (STL OC: 2003-2005; BUF RB Coach: 2001-2002)

Dick Jauron takes over as head coach in Buffalo following the surprise resignation of Mike Mularkey shortly after the season. Upon entering the league as a defensive backs coach with the Buffalo Bills in 1985, Jauron joined the Green Bay Packers staff the following year where he spent the next nine seasons. In 1995 Jauron was hired by Tom Coughlin to work as his defensive coordinator with the Jacksonville Jaguars. In just their second season, the expansion Jaguars had already assembled a team that was one win away from playing in the Super Bowl. After enjoying sustained success with the franchise the next two years, Jauron was offered his first head coaching job and took over the Chicago Bears in 1999.

Jauron's first two seasons in Chicago weren't impressive. The team used their first round pick in 1999 on quarterback Cade McNown and they went through three different starting quarterbacks that year. The backfield compiled just 1063 yards and 3 touchdowns as a unit as the Bears posted a 6-10 season. The following year the Bears went 5-11 with no signs of improvement from the offense.

In 2001, the Bears went 13-3 relying on the contributions of rookie running back Anthony Thomas and a defense that ranked number one in the league in points allowed. They won the NFC Central and had a first week bye in the playoffs. Although they got to host the Philadelphia Eagles, they lost to hometown favorite Donovan McNabb by a score of 33-19. It was the most success Jauron would enjoy in Chicago as they fell back to earth with a 4-12 effort the following year, and then 7-9 in Jauron's final season with the club.

Before landing the Buffalo Bills job, Jauron spent the previous two seasons working in Detroit under Steve Mariucci as defensive coordinator. The Lions however, proved no better than the team Jauron had left in Chicago as they went a combined 11-21 during that two year span. The lone bright spot was the significant improvement the Lions made on the defensive side of the ball under Jauron's guidance in 2004 before a lackluster performance in 2005.

After signing with the Bills, Jauron filled out his staff by hiring Steve Fairchild to be his offensive coordinator. Fairchild has spent the past three years working under Mike Martz in St. Louis with the same title. Prior to joining the Rams staff, he spent the 2001-2002 seasons in Buffalo as the running backs coach and produced a Pro-Bowl season from Travis Henry in 2002.

Jauron's Impact On The Offense:

Quarterbacks: Kelly Holcomb; J.P. Losman; Craig Nall

J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb will battle in the preseason for the right to start on opening day. After Losman's poor showing last season upon assuming that role, consider eight-year vet, Kelly Holcomb the favorite here. Losman completed just 49.8% of his passes last season on 228 attempts. If he doesn't show improvement with his accuracy during the preseason, he'll have no chance at winning the starting quarterback position.

Holcomb has never gone through an entire season as a starter, but he has more experience in that role than the younger Losman. He also has a career completion percentage of 64.6% and his knowledge of the position should go a long way towards being named the starter come opening day.

Regardless of which quarterback actually starts for the Bills this season, it's hard to imagine much fantasy value here. Jauron is a defensive-minded coach and will likely rely on a conservative gameplan like he had in Chicago. Although Mike Martz's understudy for the past three seasons in St. Louis will be running the offense, don't expect to see anything resembling the Rams air attack.

The Bills will take their chances downfield during games, but unless Lee Evans emerges as a star this season, don't expect many 250-yard passing days from the Bills quarterbacks. If Holcomb can stay healthy and lock up the starting role throughout the year, he may be a solid back-up in fantasy leagues, but you should be able to get something better to fill that spot on your team.

Running Backs: Willis McGahee; Anthony Thomas; Shaud Williams; Lionel Gates

McGahee may have been a disappointment last season, but he did manage to rush for over 1200 yards on 300-plus carries for the first time in his career. With the conservative approach Jauron brings to the offense, you can expect McGahee to carry the ball nearly 350 times this season. At 4.0 yards a carry, that would be 1400 yards rushing. Expect McGahee to finish with somewhere between 1300-1550 this season. After rushing for 13 touchdowns as a rookie, McGahee's total dropped to 5 last year. Given some stability at the quarterback position, he should be able to find the endzone 8-10 times on the ground in 2006.

If McGahee were to go down with an injury, his backup would likely be a valuable fantasy pick up. Pay attention to whether Anthony Thomas or Shaud Williams earns the number two spot on the depth chart. An injury to McGahee would likely mean 20 carries a game for whichever back assumes the starting role.

Wide Receivers: Lee Evans; Peerless Price; Josh Reed; Roscoe Parrish; Andre' Davis

Lee Evans takes over the lead role at wide receiver in 2006 following an offseason that saw the departure of Eric Moulds to the Houston Texans for a fifth round pick. With just two years in the league, Evans has compiled an impressive 97 receptions for 1586 yards and 16 touchdowns. As the new lead receiver in Buffalo, Evans will now have the opportunity to contribute even more to the offense. He won't have the luxury of playing opposite Moulds this year, but Peerless Price returned to Buffalo via free agency and should provide enough to the offense to keep Evans from drawing too many double coverages.

The talent surrounding him and the system he plays in may limit Evans' overall production, but by season's end he should have no less than 75 receptions for roughly a 1000 yards. I wouldn't expect his touchdown totals to jump too high. The new system he's playing in could limit his scoring opportunities. That said, he should have another 7-9 scores this season.

Peerless Price might be valuable as a #4 receiver to fantasy teams, but he isn't someone you want to be relying on. He's likely to finish the year with 625-725 yards receiving, and 3-4 touchdowns. If he produces more than that I want to know what Buffalo puts in their water.

Tight Ends: Robert Royal; Kevin Everett; Ryan Neufeld

The Bills tight end situation isn't all that impressive in terms of fantasy value. Whoever starts, he'll likely remain in your leagues free agent list the entire season.