Fantasy Impact: GB
7/18/06
Team: Green Bay Packers
Previous Head Coach: Mike Sherman
(2000-2005)
New Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (49ers
OC: 2005; NO OC: 2000-2004; GB QB Coach: 1999; KC QB Coach: 1995-1998;
Off. Assist: 1993-1994)
Six years after his first stay in Green Bay, Mike McCarthy returns
to the Packers as their head coach. In 1999 he worked for the
franchise under Ray Rhodes coaching quarterback Brett Favre. Before
spending a season in Green Bay, he had spent the previous six
years in the Kansas City organization working with quarterbacks
Joe Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Rich Gannon. In 2000
he was offered the offensive coordinator position with the Saints
under new head coach Jim Haslett.
In the five seasons McCarthy spent running the Saints offense,
Aaron Brooks produced 14,760 yards and 98 touchdowns in four seasons
as the starter. That's an average of 3,690 yards, and just under
25 touchdowns a year. He also got great production at the running
back position with both Ricky Williams and Deuce McAllister. Under
McCarthy, the two backs were a threat to rush for 1,200 plus yards
and reach double digit touchdowns a year. They were also contributors
in the passing game, routinely catching anywhere from 40-55 receptions
in a season.
In 2005 McCarthy left the Saints to work with Mike Nolan as the
49ers offensive coordinator. It was a difficult task to turn around
an offense that was going through a major rebuilding process in
just one season. McCarthy did get respectable production from
the ground game however, as he used three different backs to produce
1,675 yards and 9 touchdowns.
McCarthy's Impact On The Offense:
Quarterbacks: Brett Favre;
Aaron Rodgers; Ingle Martin
Brett Favre and McCarthy have worked together before and Favre
has already commented on the offense, stating that the changes
aren't so much with the system that will be in place, but more
so with the terminology used to call the plays. Favre may not
be in his prime, but he still finds himself in position to have
another productive season in the NFL.
Expect McCarthy to provide Favre with more support from the ground
game. With Favre carrying less of the burden on his shoulders,
his yardage numbers will likely drop to the 3500-3650 range, but
he could see his touchdown total climb to 25 and it is likely
that his interception totals will fall below 20 once again.
Aaron Rodgers dynasty owners may have good reason to stay patient.
McCarthy has worked well with different types of quarterbacks
in the past, and should have a positive impact on Rodgers career.
Consider grabbing rookie Ingle Martin however, as he may be able
to overtake Rodgers in the future should the Cal Bear falter as
the starter down the line.
Running Backs: Ahman Green;
Samkon Gado; Najeh Davenport
Ahman Green, recovering from a ruptured tendon in his right quad,
has already been cleared by doctors for non-contact drills with
the Packers. In fact, back in May he stated doctors had told him
he is two months ahead of schedule from what would be considered
a reasonable recovery time for his injury.
Prior to last season's injury, Green had played in 77 of a possible
80 games over the past five years. He earned four straight trips
to Hawaii from 2001-2004 and has rushed for no less than 1,100
yards since being traded to Green Bay. He has been a solid contributor
as a receiver out of the backfield as well. While his reception
totals have dropped in each of the past six seasons, Green has
recorded as many as 73 receptions and no less than 40 (prior to
last year) in his time with the Packers.
If Green is healthy enough to be running full speed in practice
before the season begins, expect him to be the starter come opening
day. He has been a highly productive back over the years, and
is a great fit for McCarthy's offense. You'll need to monitor
his status leading up to the opener, but if healthy for the entire
season he could produce over 1,500 total yards and reach double
digit touchdowns.
Both Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport will be solid contributors
if called upon. With Davenport recovering from a broken right
ankle, expect Gado to be second on the depth chart at the start
of the season and lined up in the backfield come opening day if
Green is unable to go. McCarthy has devised productive ground
games during the past five years as an offensive coordinator.
With the talented trio of backs he has in Green Bay, he should
be able to do so again.
Wide Receivers: Donald Driver;
Robert Ferguson; Rod Gardner; Marc Boerigter; Greg Jennings; Cory
Rodgers
Donald Driver has produced over 80 receptions and 1,200 yards
in each of the past two seasons. With the departure of Javon Walker
on draft day, he is sure to be Favre's favorite target again in
2006. When McCarthy first joined the Saints staff in 2000, he
played a key role in creating an offense that produced a 94-catch,
1,340-yard, 8 touchdown performance from Joe Horn. Prior to joining
the Saints, Horn's best season in his four year career was a 35-catch,
586-yard, 6-touchdown outing in 1999. Over the next four season's
Horn went on to average 85 receptions, 1,237 yards and 9 touchdowns
a year with McCarthy running the offense. Driver may not reach
9 touchdowns this season, but there is good reason to believe
he'll go over 80 receptions and 1,200 yards for his third straight
year.
In his four years with the Packers, Robert Ferguson has never
recorded more than 40 receptions in a season and has only produced
more than 500 yards once. Going into camp as a starter for the
first time in his career may prove beneficial, but it's hard to
imagine he'll produce consistently to be a any better than a #4
fantasy receiver. He'll also be pushed for playing time throughout
the season by Rod Gardner, Marc Boerigter, and rookies Greg Jennings
and Cory Rodgers. Ferguson could be a nice selection in the later
rounds as a back-up, but by no means anyone to regard with high
expectations.
Tight Ends: Bubba Franks; David
Martin; Donald Lee
McCarthy has managed mediocre production from tight ends in his
time as a coordinator. Bubba Franks may see his touchdown totals
climb over five again, but none of the tight ends are likely to
be consistent performers from week to week.
|