Fantasy Impact: HOU
8/1/06
Team: Houston Texans
Previous Head Coach: Dom Capers
(2002-2005)
New Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (DEN OC:
2003-2005; OC/QB Coach: 1995-2002; 49ers QB Coach: 1994)
Having spent the last eleven seasons in Denver, Gary Kubiak returns
to his roots as head coach of the Houston Texans. His first experience
as a coach in the NFL came in 1994 working with Steve Young as
the 49ers quarterbacks coach. Young went on to throw 35 touchdowns
that season, at the time a career high, and led the 49ers to their
fifth Super Bowl title. The following season Kubiak left the San
Francisco area to work in Denver, where he had previously spent
nine seasons as a backup quarterback (1983-1991).
Mike Shanahan was in his first season as head coach of the Broncos
that year, and hired Kubiak to be his offensive coordinator. Along
with his responsibilities of running the offense, Kubiak doubled
as the team's QB coach. It would take just three seasons before
the Broncos' new regime won their first Super Bowl in 1997. The
following year they defended their title, and repeated as Champions
before Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway decided to call it
a career.
In the seven seasons since, Kubiak has run an offense led by
Brian Griese (1999-2002) and Jake Plummer (2003-2005). He has
also used a myriad of running backs, ranging from the likes of
Olandis Gary to Clinton Portis, to keep the Broncos offenses among
the better units in the league. In Houston, Kubiak has some talented
offensive players already in place, but he'll need the O-line
to perform much better than it has in the past if the offense
is to be successful.
Kubiak's Impact on the Offense
Quarterbacks: David Carr; Sage
Rosenfels
With Kubiak in Houston, expect David Carr to be protected better
than he was in 2005. The Texans O-line allowed 68 sacks last year,
worst in the league, and as a result Carr's production was limited.
A quarterback himself at the NFL level, Kubiak understands the
importance of protecting the position. Not only will he rely on
better blocking from the men up front to protect his QB, but the
play action passes and bootleg rollouts incorporated into the
offense should also keep Carr on his feet more often. After allowing
14 sacks more than any other team in the league last year, you
should see a dramatic improvement from the Texans O-line in that
category in 2006. That said, allowing 40-50 sacks this season
would still rank them among the worst in the league.
Carr may not have a breakout season, but the new offensive approach,
along with the addition of Eric Moulds to the wide receiver corps,
should prove beneficial. Jake Plummer finished last season with
3,336 yards passing and 18 touchdowns while playing in Kubiak's
system. He also scrambled 46 times for 151 yards and two more
scores. Expecting Carr to produce statistics similar to those
of Plummer's 2005 season is reasonable. Carr has never rushed
for less than 151 yards since entering the league. With the number
of rollouts he'll have this season, expect him to rush for over
275 yards for the third time in his four-year career. His passing
totals should climb back over the 3,000-yard mark and he could
also crack 20 touchdown passes for the first time in his career.
Running Backs: Domanick Davis;
Antowain Smith; Vernand Morency; Wali Lundy
The Texans passed on the opportunity to select Reggie Bush with
the number one pick in the draft, thereby cementing Domanick Davis
as the team's featured back. While there are some durability concerns
that surround Davis, he has managed to run the ball 230 or more
times in each of his first three NFL seasons. He has totaled 3,195
yards rushing over that period, but his yards per carry has never
been impressive, sitting at 4.1 for his career.
While Davis' injury concerns may loom throughout the season,
he should remain as productive a back in 2006 as he has in his
previous three years. Kubiak's offensive schemes should benefit
his rushing style, giving him more cut back lanes to slice through.
The more holes that open up for Davis to cut back against, the
better use he can make of his agility. It should result in an
improvement in his yards per carry. If he can get it up to a more
respectable 4.5 this season, he could reach 1,200 yards rushing
for the first time in his career. A solid receiver out of the
backfield since entering the league, Davis should be good for
45-55 receptions this season as well.
You may see Antowain Smith, signed in the offseason, log over
160 carries for the seventh time in his nine-year career. His
contributions to the offense however, shouldn't be enough to scare
you away from drafting Davis. It's possible that second-year man
Vernand Morency, or rookie sixth round draft pick, Wali Lundy
will supplant Smith as the number two back on the depth chart
at some point during the season. But their contributions are more
likely to occur following an injury to Davis. Should Davis' knee
issues linger into the season, both Morency and Lundy would be
players to watch. At 34, Antowain Smith isn't a back that could
fill in as a team's starter for a long stretch of the season.
Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson;
Eric Moulds; Kevin Walter; Derick Armstrong; Jerome Mathis; David
Anderson
After missing three games and going through much of the year
with injuries to his knee and leg, Andre Johnson struggled in
2005. He compiled 63 receptions for 688 yards and 2 touchdowns
and that was the worst outing of the talented receiver's young
career. Entering the 2006 season, Johnson will be fully healed
and playing opposite Eric Moulds, a reliable vet in the passing
game. While both receivers are capable of producing 1000-yard
seasons, it's unlikely that scenario will play out in the Texans
offense. Moulds may be the more established vet, but at age 34,
he is well past his prime. Johnson, on the other hand, could be
entering his.
Expect both receivers to be productive members of the Texans
offense. As the lead wideout, Andre Johnson should rebound from
his subpar 2005 with the second 1000-yard season of his career.
He should contribute with no less than 75-85 receptions and provide
5-7 touchdowns. Eric Moulds will likely catch 55-65 himself for
625-725 yards and 4-5 scores.
Tight Ends: Jeb Putzier; Mark
Bruener; Matt Murphy; Owen Daniels
Jeb Putzier joins the Texans after spending the past three years
with Kubiak in Denver. As the team's starting tight end the past
two seasons, Putzier produced 73 receptions for 1,053 yards and
2 touchdowns. While his totals haven't been spectacular to fans
of fantasy football, Putzier did manage to establish a role for
himself in the Denver offense and impressed Kubiak enough that
he decided to bring Putzier from Denver to Houston.
Average Putzier's numbers out over the past two seasons and you
have 36 receptions for 525 yards and 1 touchdown a year. That's
roughly what you can expect from him this season, but he comes
with the upside of reaching 40-50 receptions if Carr finds him
to be a reliable target. |