Fantasy Impact: KC
7/6/06
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Head Coach: Dick Vermeil (2001-2005)
New Head Coach: Herm Edwards (Jets
Head Coach: 2001-2005)
New Offensive Coordinator: Mike Solari
(Chiefs Offensive Line Coach: 1997-2005)
Following the retirement of teary-eyed Dick Vermeil, the Kansas
City Chiefs called the New York Jets to see about the possibility
of acquiring the services of Herm Edwards. A few weeks later a
deal was struck, and Edwards became the Chiefs head coach in exchange
for a fourth round pick. Upon his hiring, Edwards promoted Mike
Solari, the team's offensive line coach the past nine years, to
the position of offensive coordinator. Since Edwards' coaching
background is mostly on the defensive side of the ball, it's expected
Solari will have more influence the Kansas City offense than if
he were working with a coach with an offensive background.
While in New York, Edwards worked with offensive coordinators
Mike Heimerdinger (2005) and Paul Hackett (2001-2004). Hackett
resigned following the 2004 season after he faced criticism for
running an overly conservative offense. Heimerdinger, Hackett's
replacement, saw his new offense quickly deteriorate following
early-season injuries to quarterbacks Chad Pennington and Jay
Fiedler. Free agent signee Vinny Testaverde filled in for a few
games before the Jets made the switch to third-string quarterback,
Brooks Bollinger for the remainder of the season.
Knowing the run-oriented offenses Edwards' coordinators ran with
the Jets, and Solari's background as an offensive line coach,
expect the Chiefs to base their strategy off the run this season.
Edwards is willing to throw the ball deep on occasion, but it's
something that needs to be set up by the run in order to work
consistently. Solari--having worked with Dick Vermeil for the
past five seasons--may mix a few wrinkles of his former coach's
offense into the game plan. But one should remember Solari came
to the Chiefs in 1997 and worked under Marty Schottenheimer, another
coach that liked the running game.
Edwards' Impact On the Offense:
Quarterbacks: Trent Green;
Damon Huard; Brodie Croyle
While playing in Vermeil's system, Green has thrown the ball
over 500 times in four of the past five seasons. During that same
span, he's also thrown for over 4000 yards three times, and never
less than 3,690 yards. In contrast, during the five years Edwards
spent in New York, there wasn't a single season where his offense
threw the ball more than 500 times. The team never compiled more
than 3619 total passing yards at any point in Edwards' tenure.
While that may be due in part to the Jets' quarterback troubles
over the past few seasons, there's no denying it had a lot to
do with Edwards' approach to the game.
Green will get to take his shots down the field every now and
then, but he'll no longer be playing in Vermeil's wide-open attack.
With the added emphasis on the run this year, it is likely there
will be a decrease in Green's production. Expect his yardage totals
for 2006 to fall to the 3500-3650 range and touchdown totals at
21-24.
Running Backs: Larry Johnson;
Dee Brown; Quentin Griffin; (Priest Holmes)
This will be the first time Larry Johnson enters a season as
the Chiefs lead back. It will also be the first year he's playing
in a system other than Dick Vermeil's. While Edwards' run-first
approach will benefit Johnson throughout the season, expecting
him to match his totals of a year ago may be asking too much.
After taking over for an injured Priest Holmes much of the season,
Johnson went on to carry the ball 3336 times for 1750 yards and
21 touchdowns. That is 5.2 yards per carry, and an average of
21 rushes per game. Considering he accomplished the better part
of those statistics in just the final nine games of the year,
it's easy to see why Johnson's 2005 season was amazing.
While Johnson is likely to see as many as 350-400 carries this
season, his YPC and touchdown totals are likely to drop. With
that said, he is still likely to finish as one of the Top 5 backs
in '06. Expect Johnson to rush for 1500-1700 yards and score double
digit touchdowns. He could also contribute 40-60 receptions to
the passing game for another 300-500 yards.
Wide Receivers: Eddie Kennison;
Samie Parker; Dante' Hall; Jeff Webb; Craphonso Thorpe
See whether or not Samie Parker can nudge Eddie Kennison out
of the team's number one receiver position. With Tony Gonzalez
at tight end, it will be hard for both receivers to be solid fantasy
contributors, but with the shots the team will take downfield,
there's reason to believe one of them will remain a reliable option
this season.
Kennison has been a deep threat throughout his career and for
that reason I'd expect him to remain the teams top wideout this
year. He could produce 1000 yards for the third straight season.
Projecting Kennison for yardage within the 900-1050 range seems
accurate. If he could crack the 70-reception mark for the first
time in his career, he could be a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately,
I don't see that happening for Kennison this year. If Parker again
takes a back seat to Kennison, I wouldn't expect much of an improvement
from last year's totals.
Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez;
Jason Dunn; Kris Wilson
While Edwards' offenses have never produced game-breaking performances
from their tight ends, he's never had one as talented as Gonzalez
on his roster. The added emphasis the Chiefs will place on the
run this season may actually help Gonzalez find an easier time
getting open. Look for him to hit pay dirt more than he did last
season. He's likely to have another 70 to 80-catch year for 800-950
yards and 6 or more touchdowns.
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