Fantasy Impact: Pitshburgh Steelers
6/11/07
New Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (MIN DC:
2006; TB DBs Coach: 2001-2005)
Previous Head Coach: Bill Cowher
(1992-2006)
New Offensive Coordinator: Bruce
Arians (PIT WRs Coach: 2004-2006; CLE OC: 2001-2003;) Tomlin's
career in coaching began in 1995 at the Virginia Military Institute
working with their wide receivers. He then spent a year in Memphis
as a graduate assistant before joining Arkansas State's staff
in 1997 where he also began as their wide receivers coach. The
following year he moved to the other side of the ball and coached
the team’s defensive backs. Tomlin then worked as a defensive
back coach at University of Cincinnati from 1999-2000 before receiving
an offer to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive backs coach.
Tomlin spent the next five seasons in Tampa Bay. In 2006, he joined
Brad Childress' staff in Minnesota as the team’s defensive
coordinator. After just one season as a coordinator in the NFL,
Tomlin signed a 4-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers this
off-season, becoming their 16th head coach in franchise history.
While in Tampa Bay, Tomlin's secondary unit ranked among the
best in the league throughout his tenure. In 2002, the year the
Buccaneers won the Super Bowl, their secondary ranked 1st in yards
allowed (2785), 1st in touchdowns allowed (10), and 1st in interceptions
(31). The year prior, Tampa Bay's secondary ranked 2nd in the
league in interceptions with 28. They also ranked 6th in the league
in passing yards allowed (3223). Outside of the 2001 and 2005
seasons (ranked 6th), Tampa Bay's secondary never ranked lower
than the top 5 in that category under Tomlin.
In his lone season with the Vikings, Tomlin led a defensive unit
that ranked 7th in the league in total yards allowed. Surprisingly,
Minnesota's secondary gave little support towards accomplishing
that task. In fact, they finished the year ranked second to last
in passing yards allowed, yielding 4015 yards through the air
to opponents. The Vikings run defense played in sharp contrast
to the secondary however. They limited teams to an astonishing
2.83 yards per carry, and their 985 rushing yards allowed was
best in the NFL. The 9 rushing touchdowns scored against the Vikings
ranked them 5th in the league.
Upon his hiring, Tomlin promoted Bruce Arians from his position
as a wide receivers coach, to his current position of offensive
coordinator with the team. He replaces Ken Whisenhunt, who landed
a job in the off-season as the Arizona Cardinals head coach. Prior
to his time in Pittsburgh, Arians spent three seasons as Butch
Davis' offensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns. It's also
worth noting that from 1998-2000 he was the quarterback coach
of the Indianapolis Colts, overseeing Peyton Manning develop into
one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL.
Tomlin's Impact On The Offense:
Quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger;
Charlie Batch; Brian St. Pierre; Omar Jacobs
Considering Tomlin's background lies mostly in his work as a
defensive coach, it's unlikely he will have a direct effect on
how the offense plays out this season (although he has mentioned
wanting to use multiple TE sets more frequently). In Arians, he
has an offensive coordinator with experience at the position,
albeit during a disappointing run with the 2001-2003 Cleveland
Browns. During that time, Cleveland could never establish an attack
on the ground or through the air. The most success Arians could
muster from the Browns offense came during the 2002 season. Cleveland
finished with a 9-7 record that year, earning themselves a birth
in the playoffs. Even so, the offense still ranked among the bottom
in the league in all rushing categories, and was no better than
middle of the pack with their passing game.
As poorly as Cleveland's offense performed under Arians, it would
be unfair to lay the blame solely on him. The Browns were just
two years removed from being an expansion team at the time. To
say there was a lack of talent for him to work with would be an
understatement. In Pittsburgh, not only does he have more gifted
athletes in place, but Arians is also familiar with his players
and the system run by Ken Whisenhunt, due to his previous three
seasons with the team.
While it's difficult to pinpoint exactly what one should expect
from the Steelers offense this season, it's likely they will continue
to pass the ball more than they did during Roethlisberger's first
two years in the league. Depending on the strength of their defense,
the 4th-year vet should be in position to come close to matching
his yardage output from a year ago of 3528 yards. If the defense
has another disappointing season and the Steelers are forced to
play from behind often, that number could rise as high as 3700
yards. If they play as a strong, cohesive unit for the majority
of the year, then expect him to throw less and finish with something
closer to 3350 yards. He should also approach 20 touchdown passes
this season, but don't be surprised if his interception total
climbs to 15 or higher.
Running Backs: Willie Parker;
Najeh Davenport; Kevan Barlow; Verron Haynes
Willie Parker enters the 2007 season coming off a terrific year
for himself in 2006. After emerging as Pittsburgh's lead back
during their 2005 Super Bowl run, he reached career highs with
1494 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns last season. He also proved
to be a durable back, playing in all 16 games and carrying the
ball more than 300 times for the first time in his career. While
Bill Cowher is no longer around to employ the run first philosophy
that had been a mainstay of the Steelers offense for years, there
will still be plenty of opportunities for Parker this season.
Expect him to finish with another 300 carries and somewhere in
the vicinity of 1350 rushing yards. He'll also be a candidate
to reach double digits in touchdowns this year.
Free agent acquisition Kevan Barlow will battle Najeh Davenport
during training camp for playing time. Whichever of the two is
placed second on the depth chart, there's a chance they'll get
close to 100 carries for 350-450 yards during the season with
an occasional touchdown. Barring injury to Parker however, don't
expect more than that from either of the two. Verron Haynes returns
to the team as well, recovering from a knee injury that limited
him to seven games last season.
Wide Receivers: Hines Ward;
Cedrick Wilson; Nate Washington; Santonio Holmes; Willie Reid;
Dallas Baker
As mentioned above, expect Roethlisberger to produce more along
the lines of last years production rather than that of his first
two seasons in the league. With the increased amount of passing
attempts, the more opportunities receivers have to get involved
in the game. After falling just shy of the 1000- yard mark in
each of the past two seasons, expect lead receiver Hines Ward
to finish with numbers close to 80 receptions and 1000 yards this
year. He's likely reliable for 6-8 touchdowns this season as well.
Second-year wide receiver Santonio Holmes will try to build off
his solid showing as a rookie, in which he contributed 49 receptions
for 824 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cedrick Wilson and Nate Washington
proved to be productive last season as well, but of these three
receivers, Holmes is the one with most potential and highest value.
It's a little early to expect a 1000-yard season from him, but
there's a good chance he'll see a slight increase in his number
of receptions while totaling 700-800 yards receiving.
Tight Ends: Heath
Miller; Jerame
Tuman; Matt
Spaeth; Charles
Davis
While Tomlin has mentioned in interviews he would like to get
more two, and three tight end sets worked within the offense,
it's unlikely their presence on the field will lead to more production
from a statistical standpoint. Heath Miller has averaged 36 receptions,
426 yards, and about 6 touchdowns the last two seasons. Expect
him to finish with similar numbers once again this year, though
there is the possibility of a slight improvement.
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