Week 1
9/6/07
Steppin' Up
David Garrard,
JAC: It wasn't known until last Friday, but David Garrard
has beaten out former first round pick Byron Leftwich for the
starting job in Jacksonville. While the decision gives Garrard
some value in fantasy leagues he is expected to be no better than
a back-up option throughout the season.
Since his selection in the 2002 draft, Garrard has started 18
games for the Jaguars, including the final 10 games of last season.
In the 29 games he has played throughout his career he has amassed
3543 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, with a 58.1 completion
percentage on 539 attempts. Garrard has also rushed for 6 scores
and 637 yards throughout his career, including 250 from last season.
The Jacksonville offense lacks the weapons at wide receiver to
make Garrard a scoring threat on a weekly basis, but his rushing
ability makes him an option to put up double digit fantasy points
from time to time. He's likely to bounce from team to team throughout
the year in your fantasy league, but don't hesitate pick him off
the waiver wire if you are in a jam at some point and need a QB
to play.
Steppin' Down
Charlie
Frye, CLE: Recently named Cleveland's starter at quarterback,
it’s unlikely Charlie Frye will retain that role throughout the
year. Heading into the preseason, not only was Frye competing
for his job with first round pick Brady Quinn, he was also being
challenged by third-year veteran Derek Anderson.
Quinn's late arrival while working out the details of his 5-year,
$20.2 million deal didn't help him in his quest to be named the
starter for opening day, but he still looked sharp during games
once he signed. Quinn finished the preseason completing 64.4%
of his passes (29 of 45), for 300 yards, with 3 touchdowns. By
comparison, Frye completed 64.9% of his attempts (24 of 37), for
251 yards, with zero touchdowns and 1 interception. Barring an
unprecedented performance from Frye over the first half of the
season, expect Quinn to start taking snaps under center for the
Browns sooner rather than later.
Steppin' Up
LaMont Jordan, OAK: Jordan isn't the first name that comes to
mind when thinking of backs to grab in your fantasy league. Coming
off a relatively successful year with the Raiders in 2005, last
season was an absolute disaster for the former New York Jet. He
began the season rushing for just 55 yards in his first two games
combined. Following the bye and going against a weak Cleveland
defense in week 4, Jordan carried for 128 yards and a touchdown,
but it was the only meaningful output he'd provide for the entire
year.
A back injury suffered mid-season limited Jordan to just 10 games
and 8 starts for all of 2006. His rushing totals would come to
a meager 434 yards and 2 touchdowns. The 10 receptions he recorded
were also a major disappointment following the 70 he had just
a year ago.
Things weren't looking much better for Jordan during the offseason.
The Raiders signed free agent running back Dominic Rhodes and
selected Louisville tailback Michael Bush during the draft. Rhodes
was expected to play an immediate role in new head coach Lane
Kiffin's offense. After violating the NFL's substance abuse policy
however, Rhodes is now suspended for the first 4 games of the
season. Michael Bush has been placed on the PUP-list meanwhile,
keeping him out of action through at least the first 6 games of
the year.
Following a strong outing for himself in the preseason (126 yards,
4.5 ypc, 2 TDs), and with little in the way of competition at
the start of the year, Jordan will have 4 games to establish himself
as a primary weapon in the Raiders offense. While these developments
don't elevate Jordan to the role of a #2 RB in fantasy leagues,
it should make him a very competent #3 RB throughout the first
4 games.
Steppin' Down
Marshawn
Lynch, BUF: With only Anthony Thomas to challenge him for
carries throughout the season, many have expectations of a potential
thousand yard outing coming from the California Golden Bear alumnus
taken with the 12th overall selection in this years draft. Lynch's
preseason performance however has left much to be desired.
While taking part in three of the Bills four exhibition games
Lynch carried the ball 22 times for a mere 37 yards (1.7 ypc)
and no touchdowns. By comparison, fellow rookie and fourth round
pick Dwayne Wright carried the ball 24 times for 85 yards (3.54
ypc) albeit against weaker competition.
The lack of meaningful production from either back (Anthony Thomas
had just one preseason carry), along with head coach Dick Jauron's
comments earlier in the offseason regarding a running back by
committee approach to the backfield, are enough to call into doubt
the prospects of a thousand yard season from Lynch. Consider him
a solid #3 RB for the year ahead, but you may get burned if you
are currently relying on him as a #2 RB for the upcoming season.
Steppin' Up
James Jones,
GB: A third round pick in this April's draft, James Jones
has made quite a name for himself during the preseason. His 21
receptions tie him for first during that span while his 233 receiving
yards ranked him third. He also managed to haul in two touchdown
receptions. Jones' strong play during the preseason made seven-year
veteran receiver Robert Ferguson expendable, leading to his release
just a few weeks ago.
While being the slot receiver in the Packers offense isn't enough
to make Jones a hot commodity in fantasy circles, it's enough
for him to warrant a roster spot as a fourth or fifth receiver
in larger fantasy leagues. If you have the roster space add him
now, otherwise consider him one of the first players to come off
the waiver wire early in the season if he has a few productive
games and/or an injury should occur to Donald Driver or Greg Jennings.
Steppin' Down
Torry Holt, STL: Holt's slow recovery from offseason knee surgery
limited him to just 52 yards on 6 receptions during the preseason.
While the injury isn't expected to keep the Rams star receiver
from playing, it is possible the knee will be a lingering issue
with him throughout the year.
Holt has played parts of the last two seasons with pain in his
knee (hence the need for surgery this offseason) and still produced
tremendous results. With that in mind, there is no reason to bail
on Holt as he is still likely to produce 1100-1200 yards and come
within 10 touchdown receptions in 2007.
The situation is worth monitoring however, and could be enough
to drop Holt from the upper echelon of his class. Regardless of
his past performances there is no question the recent swelling
in his knee has fantasy owners concerned and it has pushed Holt's
value down a bit at the start of the new year.
Steppin' Up
Brent Celek,
PHI: Even though Celek is currently third on the Eagles depth
chart, his play during the preseason has drawn the praise of head
coach Andy Reid. Celek, a fifth round pick out of Cincinnati,
saw extended play during the preseason after starter L.J. Smith
strained his groin August 9th following offseason surgery to repair
a sports hernia. In Smith's absence Celek saw time with the first
string offense and recorded 13 receptions for 143 yards during
preseason action.
The latest on L.J. Smith is that he feels he is at about 75%
and still uncertain whether he'll be able to play in the opener.
He says that decision won't be made until completing this week’s
worth of practice. If Smith is unable to go at any point during
the season it's possible Celek will become the most valuable tight
end on the Eagles roster and worth adding as depth at the position
in fantasy leagues. Keep an eye on Smith's status throughout the
year however before using a roster spot on a player like Celek.
Steppin' Down
Alge Crumpler,
ATL: Crumpler's value took a hit when it was determined Michael
Vick won't be under center for the Falcons this year. During the
last three seasons with Vick, Crumpler was his favorite target
in the passing game--averaging 56 receptions, 810 yards, and 6
touchdowns per season. This year he'll be working with Joey Harrington
as his starting quarterback.
While Harrington may be a better pure passer than Vick, he doesn't
have the athletic ability to keep plays alive the way Vick could
in order to find his tight end. The difference may not cost Crumpler
much in the way of receptions, but it could result in fewer yardage
and less scoring opportunities for him this season.
There are also some concerns surrounding Crumpler's surgically
repaired left knee which has swelled up at times and limited him
during practices this preseason. While it doesn't appear to be
anything serious, Crumpler has mentioned he still felt discomfort
in the area as recently as early August. He should be good to
go for the start of the season however.
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