Fantasy Impact: Atlanta Falcons
6/10/08
New Head Coach: Mike Smith (JAC DC:
2003-2007; BAL LB Coach: 1999-2002)
Previous Head Coach: Bobby Petrino
(2007)
New Offensive Coordinator: Mike Mularkey
(MIA TE Coach: 2007; OC: 2006; BUF HC: 2004-2005; PIT OC: 2001-2003;
TE Coach: 1996-2000; TB TE Coach: 1995; Asst: 1994)
The defensive-minded Smith heads up a rebuilding
project in Atlanta.
Mike Smith was named the Atlanta Falcons head coach following
a five-year stint as defensive coordinator with the Jacksonville
Jaguars. During his tenure with Jacksonville their defensive unit
routinely finished amongst the best in the league. From 2003-2005
the Jaguars defense ranked 7th overall in offensive yards allowed
per game (301.0), 5th in points allowed per game (16.5), and 6th
in rushing yards allowed per game (99.8). They also allowed just
23 rushing touchdowns during that three year span, fewest in the
league.
During the 2006 season the defense would finish second in yards
allowed per game (283.6), and finished fourth in points allowed
(17.1). In 2007 they dropped off in those categories, but would
still rank fourth in interceptions, coming away with twenty of
them.
Prior to joining the Jaguars staff Smith spent four years in
Baltimore coaching their linebackers. Some of the players he helped
develop at that position for the Ravens include Ray Lewis, Peter
Boulware, Jamie Sharper, and Adalius Thomas. He also won a Super
Bowl with the team during the 2000 season.
Joining Smith in Atlanta will be the offensive-minded Mike Mularkey.
Mularkey was hired as offensive coordinator, a position he held
from 2001-2003 with the Pittsburgh Steelers and again in 2006
with the Miami Dolphins. The success he had while orchestrating
the Steelers offense eventually landed him a head coaching position
with the Buffalo Bills. He held that title for two years before
resigning after the 2005 season.
Smith's Impact On The Offense:
Quarterbacks: Chris Redman;
Joey Harrington; Matt Ryan; D.J. Shockley
With the defensive-minded Mike Smith hiring Mularkey to handle
the offensive play calling, expect the Falcons primary means of
attack to come from their ground game. Mularkey's main coaching
experience in the NFL came from his years with the Steelers under
then head coach Bill Cowher. While it's true he had impressive
results from the passing game during his three seasons as offensive
coordinator with the franchise, don't expect him to achieve the
same accomplishments early on with the Falcons.
To begin with, veteran quarterbacks Chris Redman and Joey Harrington
have just one season of 3000 or more passing yards between them.
Look closer and you'll see there is just two seasons of 2300 yards
or more coming from the two, both by Harrington, who is likely
to start the season no higher then second on the depth chart.
Rookie QB Matt Ryan will be given the opportunity to compete
for the starting job throughout training camp and the preseason,
but he would need to reach a nearly unprecedented level of success
for a first year player at the position to make any type of meaningful
impact in fantasy leagues.
When all is said and done, it's hard to envision one of the Falcons
quarterbacks finishing the year with more than 2500 yards passing.
Combined they'll likely finish in the 3000-3500 yard range.
Running Backs: Michael Turner;
Jerious Norwood; Ovie Mughelli (FB); Thomas Brown
The Falcons signed Michael Turner to a six-year, $34.5 million
dollar contract this off-season, so expect to see him featured
a lot in the offense. He could end up handling 300-plus carries
should his body hold up throughout his first 16-game season as
a starter in the league.
If the Falcons were more established at the QB position, there'd
be good reason to expect big numbers from Turner. As it stands
however, his scoring opportunities are likely to be limited and
opposing defenses will be able to stack eight in the box against
him. Nonetheless a 1000-1150 yard season should be on the horizon,
along with something in the range of 5-8 rushing touchdowns.
With the Turner signing, Jerious Norwood appears to be in the
same position he's been in the last two years. He is currently
averaging a remarkable 6.2 ypc with his 201 carries in the league,
but is yet to rush for more than 635 yards in a season. Dependent
upon how much the Falcons can afford to stick with the running
game, and on how well Turner holds up as a featured back, Norwood
may see a slight increase in his number of carries. At the moment
however, it seems one should expect numbers very similar to those
he has posted in the past.
In terms of receptions, both backs are likely to split 50-60
between the two of them.
Wide Receivers: Roddy
White; Michael
Jenkins; Laurent
Robinson; Joe
Horn; Adam
Jennings; Brian
Finneran; Harry
Douglas
Roddy White showed his talents to the tune of 83 receptions,
for 1202 yards, and 6 touchdowns last year. While the Falcons
passing game as whole may struggle, White is good enough a receiver
that he could come back with similar results this season. Expecting
more than that would be asking too much however given Atlanta's
current QB situation. He may finish with slightly lesser results
should Matt Ryan go into the year as the starter due to the rookie's
lack of NFL experience.
The other receivers on the team will find it difficult to accomplish
much more than they did last season as well. Laurent Robinson
and Michael Jenkins are likely to battle for the starting position
opposite White. Joe Horn held that spot last year, but produced
little and has already commented on his desire to be traded as
the Falcons give increased playing time to their younger receivers.
Whichever of the two wins that battle between themselves, look
for him to have a slight bump in his stats from a year ago.
With Finneran coming back from two major knee surgeries that
wiped out each of his last two seasons, it's uncertain how he
figures into the offense. Harry Douglas, a third round pick in
this years draft, will find it hard to earn playing time with
so much youth already atop the depth chart. Adam Jennings’
main contribution will come as a return man.
Tight Ends: Martrez Milner;
Ben Hartsock; Keith Zinger
Don't expect to see much production from the Falcons tight ends
this season. Both Ben Hartsock and Keith Zinger are better used
as blockers at the position. Second year man Martrez Milner may
be able to snag a few passes here and there, but nothing noteworthy.
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