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Projections & Rankings Update - 6/15/15

I consider June the month where I develop a good foundation for my projections and rankings. The initial set released on June 1st is the culmination of a six-week funnel-like process that starts with the league as whole that eventually spirals down to each individual player.

As we sit here in the middle of the month, I have a good idea about each team’s offensive philosophy, or my perception of it anyway, and now it's about fine tuning where the players fit in. Unless significant injuries occur, you won't see a lot of drastic changes on the projection side over our next couple of scheduled updates, but I do expect my rankings to be a little volatile as I drill down further and develop stronger opinions on the risk and/or upside of backup players.

Below are the highlights of players that moved up or down in this update.


Drew Brees (+1) – While I see the Saints throwing less in 2015, I probably had Brees projected a little low initially. I added some passing yards and bumped him up a notch in the Rankings.

Eli Manning (+2) – Manning is one player you’ll probably see move a lot in my rankings over the summer. I won’t be shocked if Eli pulls an “Andy Dalton” and finishes top five among fantasy QBs but I can’t put him there just yet. His 2013 season (27 INTs) is still too fresh.

Running Backs

Jeremy Hill (+1) – The distribution of carries between Hill and Bernard will be a hot topic. I think this situation may end up being more of a committee than Hill owners would like.

Joique Bell (-2) – Bell falling down the rankings may be a recurring theme. Whether it’s his inability to remain healthy or average play, I’m warming to the idea that at Bell and rookie Ameer Abudllah will end up with the same amount of carries by the end of the year.

Ameer Abdullah (+14) – See Bell above. The presence of Theo Riddick will limit Abdullah’s PPR value.

C.J. Spiller (+8) - Spiller is overvalued at his current ADP (5.04) but if the Saints are going to use their RBs as much as I think, Spiller is probably still slightly undervalued in my rankings.

Ryan Mathews (+6) – Mathews and Knile Davis may be the backup running backs with biggest upside in fantasy football.

Shonn Greene (dropped) – The Titans released Greene and will go with their youngsters (Bishop Sankey, David Cobb) in the backfield.

Wide Receivers

Golden Tate (-6) – Tate is going to overvalued coming off his fabulous 2014 season. I did just that my initial ranking of him. If Megatron stays healthy, it’s going to be difficult for Tate to live up to his ADP.

DeVante Parker (-20) – Yes, I know 2014 was the year of the rookie receiver. Still, it’s hard enough for young wideouts to make a fantasy impact, let alone receivers that need foot surgery.

Tight Ends

Tim Wright (-20) – Wright was released by the Patriots and claimed by the Bucs. He’ll struggle to gain TE2 status in Tampa Bay.