8/18/06
Fantasy owners who have the No. 1 overall pick in their league’s
draft have quite a quandary.
Who should be the No. 1 pick? Some say Larry Johnson. Others say
Shaun Alexander. Both will be fantasy studs, but Alexander is the
better pick. Here’s why:
Alexander has been a stud for years:
Sure, Johnson had a monster season last year, but that was his only
quality season, which raises questions if he can do it again. Alexander
has done it again – and again, again and again. The Seahawk
has had at least 1,600 total yards and 16 touchdowns the last five
seasons.
A lot has changed with the Chiefs:
The supporting cast around Johnson won’t be the same this
year as last. Kansas City has a new coach; offensive coordinator
Al Saunders and his system are gone to Washington; All-Pro tackle
Willie Roaf retired; and Johnson’s lead blocker, fullback
Tony Richardson, left for Minnesota. That’s a lot to overcome
for a young player.
Hype can be overrated: Johnson
is the most-hyped fantasy player in years. Remember who was one
of last year’s most-hyped players? Buffalo’s Willis
McGahee. He was drafted as the top overall pick in many of last
year’s fantasy drafts after collecting seven 100-yard games
and 13 touchdowns in the final 12 games of 2004. McGahee had five
100-yard games last season and just one after Week 8, and he scored
only five touchdowns. Johnson likely won’t sink to the level
McGahee did in 2005, but to expect him to put up the numbers he
did last season is a reach.
Alexander has proved to be durable:
Alexander hasn’t missed a game in his career. Johnson’s
durability is unknown as he hasn’t been the go-to running
back for an entire NFL season.
Breakthrough Player
Ronnie Brown, Miami: Running
back Ricky Williams is out and quarterback Daunte Culpepper is
in, thus Brown’s value is up. The second-year pro will get
300-plus carries with Williams suspended for the season. Culpepper’s
presence will give the Dolphins a balanced attack, giving Brown
room to work his magic. Look for Brown to collect double-digit
touchdowns, 1,300 rushing yards and 1,600 total yards with his
solid receiving skills.
Underrated
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati: Hate
taking risks in the first round? Then Johnson is your guy. Draft
the Bengal and sleep comfortably knowing he is a good bet to gain
1,400-plus rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, like he has the last
two seasons. Only one other running back (Alexander) has reached
those rushing totals in the last two seasons.
Overrated
Jamal Lewis, Baltimore: Once
a fantasy stud, Lewis now is a dud. The Ravens bringing in running
back Mike Anderson shows they are not confident in Lewis. The
once-2,000-yard rusher gained a pathetic 3.4 yards per carry last
season. Don’t make the mistake of thinking Lewis will regain
his form and draft him early. Instead, view him as a low-end No.
2 or No. 3 running back.
Sleeper
Frank Gore, San Francisco: With
Kevan Barlow out of the picture in the last three weeks of last
season, Gore shined. He gained 255 yards, including a 108-yard
effort in Week 17 against Houston and a two-touchdown game against
St. Louis in Week 16. After Barlow gained a microscopic 3.3 yards
per carry last season compared to Gore’s 4.8 yards per attempt,
look for the 49ers to give the second-year pro an opportunity
to claim the starting job.
Rankings
1. Shaun Alexander
2. Larry Johnson
3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Tiki Barber
5. Clinton Portis
6. Rudi Johnson
7. Ronnie Brown
8. LaMont Jordan
9. Steven Jackson
10. Edgerrin James
11. Carnell Williams
12. Brian Westbrook
13. Domanick Davis
14. Willis McGahee
15. Reggie Bush
16. Corey Dillon
17. Kevin Jones
18. Willie Parker
19. Reuben Droughns
20. Warrick Dunn
21. Jamal Lewis
22. Joseph Addai
23. Julius Jones
24. DeShaun Foster
25. Chester Taylor
Top Choice
Shaun Alexander, Seattle: The
Seahawk gets the nod over Kansas City’s Larry Johnson. Alexander
has been a stud for five years, while Johnson has been a stud
for just nine games. Alexander has most of the same supporting
cast around him as last season, while Johnson has a new coach
and offensive coordinator, fullback Tony Richardson is gone to
Minnesota and All-Pro tackle Willie Roaf retired. Alexander is
less of an injury risk as he hasn’t missed a game in his
career, while Johnson has yet to be a go-to running back for an
entire NFL season.
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