8/4/08
For starters, the players listed below aren’t to be completely
forgotten on draft day (like the Terry Glenns, Mike Vanderjagts,
running backs with three bad knees, and of course Steve McNair –
ok, you can forget him now that he’s sitting on his porch
in Mississippi) but what I am saying is that they should not be
considered at their current
value positions. Avoid reaching for these players and you will
not only prevent a weekly set of headaches, but you’ll also
have a 30% better chance to fence off early balding, prompt graying,
butter-induced blood pressure, and that oh-so painful admission
that you’re looking up at the 11 other football degenerates
who spent the summer pilfering through cheat sheets and news updates
in a futile search for the next Ryan Grant. Think of that view from
the bottom of the standings then try to convince me that a seeing-eye
dog and a limber walking stick wouldn’t be an upgrade.
I think most of these players will have decent years, at least
be fantasy relevant, but don’t drink the Kool-Aid before
I add sugar – because this foliage of fantasy advice is
enough sugar to stun a hungry pack of 9-year-olds at recess. If
a great value arises on draft day, feel free to take the gamble,
but remember gambling is not only illegal in most states, but
owners of casinos are also very rich for a reason. These guys
won’t meet expectations – is that sweet enough?
I’m forfeiting my love for many of these gridiron heroes,
but only for your benefit. I’m looking into my gut here,
and aside from an interesting mix of assorted foreign foods, I
see a bland fantasy future and many painful weekend box scores
for the plethora of feeble fantasy foes that select these players.
For those already invested in these guys or those still interested
in doing so: Fear not my message board mongrels, I could be wrong
– it’s happened before…twice.
Like E Coli, Salmonella, and yellow snow – these are things
you should steer clear of on draft day. Without more deliberation,
err, alliteration and one-lined zingers here are my players to
avoid in 2008 drafts (in no particular order).
RB Brian Westbrook, PHI – Let it be known that Brian Westbrook
is one of my favorite players in the league. This guy never gets
his due – he’s one of the very best running backs
that will touch the field this season. However, he’s been
injury prone, and lately he’s been getting too many carries
– basically, I think he’s bound to have a painful
season. I don’t like the running schemes in Philly, and
while there’s a chance this comes back to haunt me, I just
don’t see him as a Top 10 RB in 2008, and he’s getting
picked Top 5 in ever draft I’ve been a part of. Great player?
You bet, but be ready for three words; probable, questionable,
and out.
QB Tom Brady, NE – Best quarterback in the league again?
Yeah, but it will be close. Tom won’t throw as much in 2008,
but he should still get close to 30 touchdowns. But 30 scores
aren’t worth his mid-first round value, so don’t be
the guy that takes this sure thing. It will be a long time before
someone repeat’s Tom’s ’07 magic. Quarterbacks
aren’t 1st round material, I promise. He’ll be good,
but not that good.
RB Brandon
Jacobs, NYG – While I think Jacobs is a nice back, his rough
running style and his history of injuries continues to keep a
red flag by his name. If that wasn’t enough – look at the damage
Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw did when given the chance. I think
Ward is solid, and Bradshaw is my pick for the best back on the
defending champs’ roster. Lots of lemons are working against Jacobs.
Willie's days of being a top-tier running
back are over.
RB Willie
Parker, PIT – Like everybody else, I think the story of Fast
Willie Parker is a fantasy dream. Back-up guy in college, nobody
expected a thing from him, and whammy, he takes over in the Steel
City and turns into a first round talent. Unlike a lot of people,
I think Willie’s days of being a top-tier running back are over.
He’ll still produce, don’t get it twisted, but he’s not a touchdown
guy in the first place and with Mendenhall ready to handle a lot
of carries (and Rashard is going to be a good one, let me tell
ya) Willie will get even less chances to touch down in the end
zone. He’s getting picked as a starting back, and I don’t think
much more than 1000 yards and 5 scores can be expected.
WR Dwayne
Bowe, KC – I like Bowe a lot. I’ve said more than once that
he is going to be a stud and he didn’t disappoint in his inaugural
season. However, this guy still has to deal with Brodie Croyle,
a young offensive line, and a team that just isn’t that good.
The Chiefs should be behind enough in 2008, and Dwayne will put
up solid numbers, but there are a lot of experts expecting the
world from a receiver on a terrible passing team – that there
just don’t make no sense.
WR Kevin
Curtis, PHI – No. I hate looking at Kevin’s overall numbers
from last year because if numbers never lie than his digits definitely
disguise a very mediocre joke. 77 receptions, 1110 yards, and
6 scores… Not bad eh? HA! Take away game 3 against the Lions when
everyone in fantasy football had him on the bench, and his new
numbers look like this – 66 catches, 890 yards, 3 scores. Yes,
that’s more like it. If you add the fact that Curtis (in a non-ppr
league) scores 6 points or less 10 times, this guy just doesn’t
do it for me. If there’s one saving grace, Curtis had solid games
against 4 horrendous passing defenses – so if the Eagles play
the Lions, and you feel lucky, start the little guy – but don’t
pick him thinking he’s startable on a weekly basis, because his
numbers are just joking.
WR Marvin
Harrison, IND – Regardless of his questioned involvement in
a shooting (trigger-puller) and his quarterback on the mend (Big
Brother Peyton), Marvin is just getting old. He’s a receiver,
so it’s not like he’s completely useless, but please don’t tap
into the draft and pretend that you are getting the old (young)
Marvin Harrison with a clever 4th round pick. Wayne is the man
in Indy, and little Gonzo and Dallas Clark are two more very good
options down field. Add Addai’s receiving skills and the return
of Dominic Rhodes and I just don’t see enough balls to make Marv
a stud once again. Old age, bad knees, fingerprints – these aren’t
good things.
WR Donald
Driver, GB – It’s not that I don’t like Driver but that I
like Greg Jennings and James Jones so much. Take away Brett’s
rocket-cannon arm, silly confidence, rapport with Donald, and
his risky throws and I’m not so sure any Packer receiver will
duplicate last years totals. Will DD continue to be fantasy worthy?
Yes, but I’m not sold on him as a Top 20 receiver in ’08 and his
time as a fantasy starter might be over.
WR Hines
Ward, PIT – Santonio Holmes is obviously the deep threat in
Pittsburgh and Nate Washington has been solid given his chances.
Limas Sweed was drafted to help Heath Miller make plays in the
red zone, and Rashard Mendenhall was drafted to give the Steelers
more carries. None of these things are good for one of my all
time favorites. He’ll still smile, he’ll still block, heck, he’ll
still catch a nice number of passes – but Ward’s days as a reliable
starter on fantasy teams everywhere are all but gone. He’s a nice
late round pick up, but a Top 30 receiver is expecting too much.
RB Felix Jones, DAL – Once again, I think this kid is a
wonderful runner with a bright future – but the guy ahead
of him is just too good. Do you think Barber, who basically didn’t
start a single regular season game last season, is going to give
an inch now that he has the gig? No way. Marion has been a great
runner everywhere he’s been, and the guy has almost never
gotten the starting gig. Well, anybody who watches him can see
that he’s special, those who take Jones will be watching
their speedy rookie carry the ball 4-5 times a game. That’s
not productive fantasy fodder.
QB Eli Manning, NYG – I’m not a big fan of Eli, never
have been. He had a great finish to 2007, and looked solid in
the playoffs, but he’s still mistake prone and will have
to really improve to get past 25 touchdowns. Eli isn’t an
accurate passer and he lets his emotions get the best of him.
He makes a lot of mistakes, and just because they happened to
float into his receiver’s hands in the Super Bowl doesn’t
mean you should expect the same during this coming season. Let
someone else overpay for this Super Bowl MVP and just feel good
about watching him be mediocre all season long.
RB Justin
Fargas, OAK – There are a lot of people that think McFadden
won’t be much more than a Reggie Bush type and that should allow
Justin to produce like Deuce did in Reggie’s rookie year. Slow
down. First of all, just because McFadden’s really fast doesn’t
mean he runs like Reggie. D-Mac runs like a running back. He attacks
the hole, he can break tackles, and he never hesitates. Fargas
just got paid, sure, and McFadden won’t be a 25 carry guy, but
Justin can’t be a starting option with 10-15 carries a game, and
I don’t see many more touches coming his way. Not only that, but
these are still the Raiders we’re talking about here.
WR Donte
Stallworth, CLE – He’s had nice games, even years with respectable
numbers, but this guy isn’t blowing up in Cleveland so stop licking
the windows on the short bus. Watch some other clown pick him
as a starter and if you really want him on your team, just pick
him up when he gets dropped after the first couple weeks. Derek
Anderson isn’t a guy that’s coming off his top 2 targets all that
often, especially when Edwards and Winslow catch everything thrown
their way. Stallworth won’t be startable in 70% of your games
this year – is that worth a pick?
RB Ahman Green, HOU – I thought Green could do the trick
in Houston for a couple years. He seemed like a nice fit for that
Bronco rushing attack that Houston also partakes in, but I forgot
about his knees. Green has what? Two good and relatively healthy
seasons as a fantasy starter? He’s old – the Texans
running game is more of a pound it out attack than it should be,
and that is a bad combination. I see more of the same from Ahman
in 2008.
Deuce McAllister, NO – I had him on this list before
he went back in to get another MRI on his still swollen knee.
Regardless of how that test turns out, I wouldn’t rely on
Deuce all that much. A late flier, sure, but I can’t see
Deuce being a producer in New Orleans – he’s got 3
or 4 bad knees now, and that ain’t even good for an ant.
WR Javon Walker, OAK – I don’t buy Walker coming
into Oakland and producing like he did during his big season in
Green Bay. Sure, this Russell kid can surely chuck a pigskin,
but Walker is an injury waiting to happen, he’s coming into
the pre-season less than 100%, and the Raiders just don’t
do much on offense in the first place. On another team, sure,
but please don’t pick Javon as a starter on your squad;
he’s no longer more than a sleeper.
WR Isaac
Bruce and Bryant
Johnson, SF – I think Bruce and Johnson will both get picked
higher than they deserve because Mike Martz is the new OC in San
Fran. Please don’t be the guy that makes that mistake. Martz put
up big numbers in St. Louis with a young Ike Bruce, Tory Holt,
Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, and others – and he did it in Detroit
with an accurate passer in Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, and a couple
of other speedsters – but this is a whole different game in the
Bay. There is no quarterback to toss the ball around like that,
and any signal caller that drops back 30 times a game in San Francisco
just isn’t going to last past week 2 anyway, that offensive line
would scare Batman. I am pretty sure that jump-starting this offense
needs more than an old offensive guru that has a knack for getting
his quarterbacks annihilated.
Browns Not Named Braylon
Edwards – This could be stepping over my boundaries here,
because everything looks peachy for the Browns offense heading
into the season – but I seem to remember everyone’s love affair
with the Saints last season – and how did that work out? Sure,
the numbers didn’t look all that horrendous at season’s end (Brees,
Colston, Bush – they all had decent years) but that horrendous
start put most fantasy owners in a hole they never got out of.
I’m not saying the Browns will choke on a bone in 2008, but buyer
beware – it will stun me if Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson, and the
rest of the Browns offense performs up to expectations in ’08.
Don’t go gung-ho for a Browns team that produced at a high level
for just one season.
These guys aren’t the plague, but they aren’t worth
the pick you’ll have to give up to get them either. Dance
another jig, use a different drummer, eat an entire cheese log,
I don’t care what you do, just don’t pick a gaggle
of these guys – you’ll be better for it.
Bryan Weimer, AKA—Lucky Lester—is the owner of
LuckyLester.com,
a sports site devoted to everything football from NFL picks and
team previews to the hard facts and your fantasy reality.
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