Like any prison inmate knows, sometimes it’s good to follow suit and sometimes it’s nice to be out of spades when the queen is played. The same can be said when it comes to fantasy football fads in your draft. If you’ve never spent hours with a deck of cards trying to plunder cigarettes from convicted felons and unfortunate fools, if spades was your game in the clink, or if Valentine’s Day is the only thing that comes to mind when I say hearts, let me further explain.

In your fantasy draft there are “runs” or “fads” that go on, and most of the time you get a bunch of guys freaking out that they better pick that position right now or they’ll end up with a Jeff Garcia and Tarvaris Jackson platoon. Sometimes that is a fair assessment of the situation, but more often than not it’s better to gut the most valuable assets from the draft board and ignore the most common fantasy faux pas.

And you thought your parents were teaching you nothing when they said, “If all your friends jumped off a bridge, would you?” Ah ha! Little did they know that you would be jumping off metaphorical bridges with friends well into adulthood. The quarterback bridge – the tight end bridge – the defense bridge – all equally as high and certainly painful without a parachute, a proper bungee, or dumb luck.

Year after year people get caught up in the drafting moment and ignore everything they learned from some article on FFToday, only to wake up the next morning and wonder what could have been.

There are four fantasy fads that, if followed, will hop scotch you right into a Double Dutch ankle sprain, a baseball season hangover, and or a year long seat in the 16-point stink hole. Cleverly named, or so I pretend, here are four fads that make disco music, umbrella hats, leg warmers, and stretch pants look good.

The Old “Super Bowl Hero” Strategy (Al Davis Lives!):

Fight the urge to overvalue Eli, Burress, and Jacobs.

Taking super bowl castoffs and paying them an absurd amount of money is no way to turn the Raiders into a playoff team (despite the fact that Al Davis is hell bent on doing exactly that), and it’s no way to build a championship Fantasy Football team either. I will tell you right now, if you want to get your hands on Brandon Jacobs, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, Ahmad Bradshaw and other big (or little) named Giants, you are going to overpay for their services. The Old Super Bowl Hero Fad just isn’t a story of success; not only is this fad proven to be a piss poor way to draft, but year after year the proof is easier and easier to see, even in the non-fantasy realm.

Super Bowl teams rarely do anything close to the damage they did during their championship run. Numbers go down on offense and defense – they rarely get even close to last year’s win total, and castoffs rarely catch on to produce like they did with their old club. Yet, it’s almost a guarantee – Eli Manning will get picked like he’s a top 8 quarterback, Brandon Jacobs will be picked as a starter without injury problems, Plaxico will find himself as one of the first ten receivers off the board, and even sleepers like Steve Smith, David Tyree, Sinorice Moss, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and that stingy NYG defense will likely find a home a round or two too early.

It always happens. I don’t know if it’s because those players are fresh in the mind of fans everywhere or if it’s just easier to believe in a winner. I mean they won the Super Bowl, went to Disney Land, and got fitted for a fat diamond ring – and while that’s all fine and bubbly - it just doesn’t translate into fantasy success. If you pick a team full of Giants, not only are you going to lose, but also you would have over paid for all the mediocre players you have. Believe it or not, winning the Super Bowl isn’t worth one single fantasy point. And while that won’t keep drafters away from reaching for a Giant, it damn well should!

The Quarterback Carousel (Riding the Positional Roller Coaster):

This year, I properly named this fad “The Quarterback Carousel” because this season it will be that positional monster that rears its ugly head on draft day. Drafters will have last season’s quarterbacking numbers and record breakers streaming like pink doilies in their shallow minds. Tom Brady threw for what seemed like 100 TDs and 5000 yards and he wasn’t the only hurler tossing perfect games. 9 of the Top 18 fantasy players (in a non-ppr league) were quarterbacks… Yes, that’s half - 6 of the top 10 even - and 4 guys threw 31 touchdowns or more. There were 10 quarterbacks with at least 26 touchdown passes – that’s just flat out absurd, crazy, amazing, and here’s the kicker, one big fat anomaly. But don’t expect your draft buddies to hit that last one on the bald spot. No way. Quarterbacks will shoot off boards at a record pace this season.

But this is ridiculous, right? Just because something happened last year doesn’t mean draft strategies should fluctuate like that. Yet receivers and quarterbacks are finding themselves in 1st and 2nd round glory like it’s their job. But look back at history, the glut of passing scores just isn’t there, and I guarantee that there won’t be as much aerial success this season.

In 2006 only one guy threw for more than 28 scores, Peyton Manning. Only 3 players reached 26 TD passes, Peyton with 31, Carson Palmer with 28, and Drew Brees with an amazing 26 scores. Three guys and all of them had amazing seasons.

In 2005, same deal, 3 guys threw for at least 26 touchdowns. Carson Palmer led the league with 32, Manning had 28, and Tom Brady tossed a career high 26 touchdowns. Four other guys had 24, and a couple had 23, but once again, just 3 guys compared to the 10 in 2007.

The only other season that was close to 2007’s passing production was 2004, the season in which Peyton tossed 49 to steal Dan Marino’s single season record. That year, 9 guys tossed at least 26 TD passes and 4 guys threw at least 30 scores.

The funny thing is, if 10 guys threw for 26+ then why are people reaching for quarterbacks so early? The hype is real, but the reasoning is lacking appeal. If there are enough quarterbacks to make every owner a happy camper then why are guys wasting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks on them? Because last year, there were so many throwing scores and Tom was superhuman.

This is changing receivers’ draft positions too. WRs are going early because they were catching all those touchdowns. Don’t jump off your strategic draft ship just because of one crazy year – chances are the numbers will fluctuate back toward the running backs so be ahead of the curve.

Last Year’s Fluke Team (From Ain’ts to Saints and Back Again):

Flukes are always glorified like they’ve been doing it for years. Like with the quarterback anomaly, there’s always a team that plays above and beyond anything they’ve shown in the past. Two years ago it was the Saints and this last year it was the Browns. These two teams are so similar you’d think they were a complete copy of each other. Think about it.

The Ain’ts had been terrible and even though a “super star”, Reggie Bush, fell into their laps, nobody expected them to tear through the season and end up one win away from the Super Bowl – but that’s exactly what happened. Not only did they have team success, but they become a fantasy dream with weapons like Marques Colston, Reggie, Deuce, Drew Brees, Joe Horn, and more.

So, everyone comes into the 2007 season thinking that the only place the Saints can go is up! Nobody even thought that ’06 could have been a fluke. But, sure enough, the old Ain’ts were back in action, and their poor start, frustrating injuries, and overall disappointment sent many an owner right to the basement.

Before you put all of your cashews in one bowl, make sure you aren’t buying in to a young fluky team coming off one heck of a run. The Browns signed more than a few stop-gap players to plug some holes, just like the Saints did after their surprising season. Believing that those new players will be the final stepping-stones toward a Super Bowl ring is easy to buy into, but the chance that those new faces cause a little more friction is much more likely to come true. Optimism killed the fantasy king.

There’s no question in my mind that the Browns will be a hot commodity on draft day. Braylon Edwards will be a top 3 or 4 receiver, Derek Anderson will be a sure thing starter, and even Donté Stallworth will get some love – and while I’m not saying to take them off the radar, I am warning you to watch your wallet; don’t overpay for bland helmets.

Copy Cat Clones (Always Never Best):

This is my favorite fad to observe in my own drafts, and it’s guaranteed to happen in every single draft there ever is. Copy Cat Clones are an absurd bunch of guys that seemingly forget their player rankings and positional importance and start picking that rounds’ popular position. If 8 guys took a running back, CCCs will take a running back. If 5 guys in a row went quarterback, even if the next guy is Jake Delhomme, they’ll reach all the way up to the stars to grab him. CCCs are scared that there won’t be enough of that position to get around, and because of that, they’ll never have the best players at any one area. That doesn’t mean that they will lose, but it does mean that they’ll need a lot of luck to win.

Be the guy that starts the run, that way, not only do you get the best player at that position, but since everyone else is going crazy trying to catch up with you, you’ll get great value with your next picks as well.

I’m not saying it’s best to pick the first defense or the first kicker or even the first quarterback, receiver, or running back – but I am saying that you should almost never grab a player because three guys before you took that same position. If you’ve waited long enough to be choosing between Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, David Garrard, and Marc Bulger – the chances are that one of, if not a couple of those guys will be there when it comes back around to you, so instead of chasing a suit, go for the best available guy.

Ditch these fads when they arise, and your team will be better for it. Stick to your guns and don’t get caught up in the moment and remember, the worst kind of draft will net you a team full of Giants and Browns in which you picked quarterbacks and receivers to high and followed every single positionally enforced round. You will undoubtedly be stuck with Jamal Lewis, Eli and Derek, Plax and Braylon, and a cast of mediocre backups. If this sounds like the team you are looking for then forget everything you’ve ever learned and start over tomorrow morning with a bowl of Grape Nuts.

Bryan Weimer, AKA—Lucky Lester—is the owner of LuckyLester.com, a sports site devoted to everything football from NFL picks and team previews to the hard facts and your fantasy reality.